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Jun 20
3SI, Analysis, Poland, Publications

5 challenges facing the Three Seas

June 20, 2022

The upcoming seventh summit of the Three Seas Initiative is a perfect moment to identify key challenges currently facing this format of cooperation and the whole region and draft potential solutions for them. The solutions presented below will be discussed in greater detail in future papers.

Challenge #1: Less talking, more doing

The Three Seas Initiative has yet to concrete, measurable achievements. Today, most efforts are focused on creating a narrative about the region’s economic potential and the benefits that regional cooperation can bring. There is, of course, the Three Seas Initiative Investment Fund, but it runs independently of the Initiative and has its own performance issues.

Without institutionalization of the Initiative, achieving ambitious goals may not be possible. American partners, in particular, point out the need to build a 3SI management center („secretariat”). Initially, it could be used to support the states presiding over the Initiative, store the 3SI knowledge and documents, and serve as investors’ first point of contact. Eventually, however, as the cooperation tightens, its competencies and staff should increase. They could, for example, include priority project management (similar to the model developed by the Baltic states for Rail Baltica). By establishing the 3SI „secretariat” in Brussels, the Initiative could gain better recognition and ensure more effective lobbying within the European Union.

Challenge #2: Empower smaller states

Both the Initiative and the Three Seas Fund are dominated today by Poland and its interests. This domination became particularly evident during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine when the Three Seas’ Ukrainian agenda continued to be set in Warsaw, even though the 3SI’s presidency belonged to Latvia.

Of course, Poland’s pivotal role makes sense. After all, it is the founding state of the Initiative and the Fund and the largest state in the region in terms of population, territory, and economy. However, the Polish involvement in 3SI looks less and less like leadership and more and more like domination. Such an imbalance does not help to build the trust of our regional partners, ensure cross-party support for the Initiative, and gain recognition for this regional format.

To maintain the Three Seas-Ukrainian alliance, the Three Seas Initiative should become not only the main advocate of Ukraine’s EU accession but also a dependable guide through this process

Instead, Poland should focus on empowering the smaller states participating in the Initiative. One example of such an approach is the CEEplus index, established by seven regional stock exchanges and coordinated by the Warsaw Stock Exchange. The share of Polish companies in this index was deliberately limited to 50% to avoid their dominance resulting from operating in a much larger market. This way, the index ensures a better promotion of smaller markets and makes investments in the region more attractive to investors, as it spreads the investment risk over more markets.

Challenge #3: Extending cooperation beyond politics

Currently, the Three Seas Initiative takes place mainly on the political level, albeit extended from the mere presidential format. Cooperation on other levels and in other dimensions does not practically exist. This is risky because the Initiative does not enjoy cross-party support in many participating states, meaning that once the elections bring change in top leadership, we can expect states disengaging from the 3SI. We have already seen this happen in Croatia.

Moreover, close regional relationships cannot be built on politics alone. Academic, non-governmental, cultural, business, and tourist cooperation is necessary, if not crucial. Some steps to extend cooperation to new dimensions have already been taken, like Business Forum or the Civil Society Forum. However, we still lack a systematic approach to non-political partnerships and financial support for them. It is worth considering the creation of a Three Seas equivalent of the International Visegrad Fund and additional incentives to strengthen regional cooperation under existing EU programs such as Erasmus+ or Horizon. Ensuring that a much broader group benefits from the Initiative will make building cross-party support easier.

Challenge #4: Offering concrete support for Ukraine

The Three Seas states are leading supporters of Ukraine, and notably, this support was visible even before the start of the Russian invasion. However, there is no comprehensive, regional approach to cooperation with Ukraine. The activities carried out are dispersed and left to the discretion of individual Three Seas states or smaller, makeshift coalitions. While there is currently a lot of enthusiasm for helping Ukraine, enthusiasm alone is not a guarantee for good future relationships. We need to have it forged into a robust cooperation framework. Simply put, the humanitarian aid provided or shared cultural and historical base may not be enough to build a community of interests, especially when counterbalanced by investment funds from the wealthier EU states.

To maintain the Three Seas-Ukrainian alliance, the Three Seas Initiative should become not only the main advocate of Ukraine’s EU accession but also a dependable guide through this process. We are the best suited for this role because the memory of joining European structures is still very much alive in the Three Seas states, and the integration challenges that Ukraine will face are similar to ours. We can start supporting Ukraine in this endeavor right now by launching the Three Seas+ format. Within this format, we could share with Ukraine our best regulatory practices, implement cross-border infrastructure projects, and coordinate lobbying for Ukraine’s EU membership. Eventually, this format could be opened to other states aspiring to join the EU, particularly Moldova and the Western Balkans.

Challenge #5: Funding and validating Three Seas research

Currently the Three Seas is not the most popular research topic due to its political connotations and the lack of dedicated funding. The existing publications primarily focus on analyzing the Three Seas Initiative or exploring the region within the existing research areas (Central Europe, Balkans, Visegrad Group), which does not result in a comprehensive picture of the region. Consequently, we still know relatively little about regional synergies, and the term „Three Seas” lacks validation in the region and beyond.

Dedicated financing for research in this area will not only fill the knowledge gaps but also introduce the 3SI format to a bigger audience. It will also be a great opportunity for regional research institutions to gain global recognition and promote their expertise. This, in turn, will facilitate the creation of a scientific cooperation network between the Three Seas states and the implementation of cross-border projects. Close scientific cooperation within the region will provide a counterweight to the current center-periphery model of scientific collaboration, in which the center represents Western Europe.

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Julita Wilczek Julita Wilczek. Main research focus: international politics, particularly the influence of the US, Russia, and China on the security of Central and Eastern Europe. Graduate of Jagiellonian University (BA in American Studies), University of St Andrews (MLitt in International Security Studies), and Warsaw University (MA in Eastern Studies). Worked for the Sobieski Institute, the Ministry of Economic Development, and the Polish Development Bank. Author of the first detailed study of the Three Seas Initiative Investment Fund (Collegium Interethnicum, 2021).

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Julita Wilczek Julita Wilczek. Main research focus: international politics, particularly the influence of the US, Russia, and China on the security of Central and Eastern Europe. Graduate of Jagiellonian University (BA in American Studies), University of St Andrews (MLitt in International Security Studies), and Warsaw University (MA in Eastern Studies). Worked for the Sobieski Institute, the Ministry of Economic Development, and the Polish Development Bank. Author of the first detailed study of the Three Seas Initiative Investment Fund (Collegium Interethnicum, 2021).
Program Europa tworzą:

Marcin Chruściel

Dyrektor programu. Absolwent studiów doktoranckich z zakresu nauk o polityce na Uniwersytecie Wrocławskim, magister stosunków międzynarodowych i europeistyki Uniwersytetu Jagiellońskiego. Prezes Zarządu Instytutu Nowej Europy.

dr Artur Bartoszewicz

Przewodniczący Rady Programowej Instytutu Nowej Europy. Doktor nauk ekonomicznych Szkoły Głównej Handlowej. Ekspert w dziedzinie polityki publicznej, w tym m. in. strategii państwa i gospodarki.

Michał Banasiak

Specjalizuje się w relacjach sportu i polityki. Autor analiz, komentarzy i wywiadów z zakresu dyplomacji sportowej i polityki międzynarodowej. Były dziennikarz Polsat News i wysłannik redakcji zagranicznej Telewizji Polskiej.

Maciej Pawłowski

Ekspert ds. migracji, gospodarki i polityki państw basenu Morza Śródziemnego. W latach 2018-2020 Analityk PISM ds. Południowej Europy. Autor publikacji w polskiej i zagranicznej prasie na temat Hiszpanii, Włoch, Grecji, Egiptu i państw Magrebu. Od września 2020 r. mieszka w północnej Afryce (Egipt, Algieria).

Jędrzej Błaszczak

Absolwent studiów prawniczych Uniwersytetu Śląskiego w Katowicach. Jego zainteresowania badawcze koncentrują się na Inicjatywie Trójmorza i polityce w Bułgarii. Doświadczenie zdobywał w European Foundation of Human Rights w Wilnie, Center for the Study of Democracy w Sofii i polskich placówkach dyplomatycznych w Teheranie i Tbilisi.

Program Bezpieczeństwo tworzą:

dr Aleksander Olech

Dyrektor programu. Wykładowca na Baltic Defence College, absolwent Europejskiej Akademii Dyplomacji oraz Akademii Sztuki Wojennej. Jego główne zainteresowania badawcze to terroryzm, bezpieczeństwo w Europie Środkowo-Wschodniej oraz rola NATO i UE w środowisku zagrożeń hybrydowych.

dr Agnieszka Rogozińska

Członek Rady Programowej Instytutu Nowej Europy. Doktor nauk społecznych w dyscyplinie nauki o polityce. Zainteresowania badawcze koncentruje na problematyce bezpieczeństwa euroatlantyckiego, instytucjonalnym wymiarze bezpieczeństwa i współczesnych zagrożeniach.

Aleksy Borówka

Doktorant na Wydziale Nauk Społecznych Uniwersytetu Wrocławskiego, Przewodniczący Krajowej Reprezentacji Doktorantów w kadencji 2020. Autor kilkunastu prac naukowych, poświęconych naukom o bezpieczeństwie, naukom o polityce i administracji oraz stosunkom międzynarodowym. Laureat I, II oraz III Międzynarodowej Olimpiady Geopolitycznej.

Karolina Siekierka

Absolwentka Uniwersytetu Warszawskiego na kierunku stosunki międzynarodowe, specjalizacji Bezpieczeństwo i Studia Strategiczne. Jej zainteresowania badawcze obejmują politykę zagraniczną i wewnętrzną Francji, prawa człowieka oraz konflikty zbrojne.

Stanisław Waszczykowski

Podoficer rezerwy, student studiów magisterskich na kierunku Bezpieczeństwo Międzynarodowe i Dyplomacja na Akademii Sztuki Wojennej, były praktykant w BBN. Jego zainteresowania badawcze obejmują m.in. operacje pokojowe ONZ oraz bezpieczeństwo Ukrainy.

Leon Pińczak

Student studiów drugiego stopnia na Uniwersytecie Warszawskim na kierunku stosunki międzynarodowe. Dziennikarz polskojęzycznej redakcji Biełsatu. Zawodowo zajmuje się obszarem postsowieckim, rosyjską polityką wewnętrzną i doktrynami FR. Biegle włada językiem rosyjskim.

Program Indo-Pacyfik tworzą:

Łukasz Kobierski

Dyrektor programu. Współzałożyciel INE oraz prezes zarządu w latach 2019-2021. Stypendysta szkoleń z zakresu bezpieczeństwa na Daniel Morgan Graduate School of National Security w Waszyngtonie, ekspert od stosunków międzynarodowych. Absolwent Uniwersytetu Warszawskiego oraz Uniwersytetu Mikołaja Kopernika. Wiceprezes Zarządu INE.

dr Joanna Siekiera

Prawnik międzynarodowy, doktor nauk społecznych, adiunkt na Wydziale Prawa Uniwersytetu w Bergen w Norwegii. Była stypendystką rządu Nowej Zelandii na Uniwersytecie Victorii w Wellington, niemieckiego Institute of Cultural Diplomacy, a także francuskiego Institut de relations internationales et stratégiques.

Paweł Paszak

Absolwent stosunków międzynarodowych (spec. Wschodnioazjatycka) na Uniwersytecie Warszawskim oraz stypendysta University of Kent (W. Brytania) i Hainan University (ChRL). Doktorant UW i Akademii Sztuki Wojennej. Jego zainteresowania badawcze obejmują politykę zagraniczną ChRL oraz strategiczną rywalizację Chiny-USA.

Jakub Graca

Magister stosunków międzynarodowych na Uniwersytecie Jagiellońskim; studiował także filologię orientalną (specjalność: arabistyka). Analityk Centrum Inicjatyw Międzynarodowych (Warszawa) oraz Instytutu Nowej Europy. Zainteresowania badawcze: Stany Zjednoczone (z naciskiem na politykę zagraniczną), relacje transatlantyckie.

Patryk Szczotka

Absolwent filologii dalekowschodniej ze specjalnością chińską na Uniwersytecie Wrocławskim oraz student kierunku double degree China and International Relations na Aalborg University oraz University of International Relations (国际关系学院) w Pekinie. Jego zainteresowania naukowe to relacje polityczne i gospodarcze UE-ChRL oraz dyplomacja.

The programme's team:

Marcin Chruściel

Programme director. Graduate of PhD studies in Political Science at the University of Wroclaw and Master studies in International Relations at the Jagiellonian University in Krakow. President of the Management Board at the Institute of New Europe.

PhD Artur Bartoszewicz

Chairman of the Institute's Programme Board. Doctor of Economic Sciences at the SGH Warsaw School of Economics. Expert in the field of public policy, including state and economic strategies. Expert at the National Centre for Research and Development and the Digital Poland Projects Centre.

Michał Banasiak

He specializes in relationship of sports and politics. Author of analysis, comments and interviews in the field of sports diplomacy and international politics. Former Polsat News and Polish Television’s foreign desk journalist.

Maciej Pawłowski

Expert on migration, economics and politics of Mediterranean countries. In the period of 2018-2020 PISM Analyst on Southern Europe. Author of various articles in Polish and foreign press about Spain, Italy, Greece, Egypt and Maghreb countries. Since September 2020 lives in North Africa (Egypt, Algeria).

Jędrzej Błaszczak

Graduate of Law at the University of Silesia. His research interests focus on the Three Seas Initiative and politics in Bulgaria. He acquired experience at the European Foundation of Human Rights in Vilnius, the Center for the Study of Democracy in Sofia, and in Polish embassies in Tehran and Tbilisi.

PhD Aleksander Olech

Programme director. Visiting lecturer at the Baltic Defence College, graduate of the European Academy of Diplomacy and War Studies University. His main research interests include terrorism, international cooperation for security in Eastern Europe and the role of NATO and the EU with regard to hybrid threats.

PhD Agnieszka Rogozińska

Member of the Institute's Programme Board. Doctor of Social Sciences in the discipline of Political Science. Editorial secretary of the academic journals "Politics & Security" and "Independence: journal devoted to Poland's recent history". Her research interests focus on security issues.

Aleksy Borówka

PhD candidate at the Faculty of Social Sciences in the University of Wroclaw, the President of the Polish National Associations of PhD Candidates in 2020. The author of dozen of scientific papers, concerning security studies, political science, administration, international relations. Laureate of the I, II and III International Geopolitical Olympiad.

Karolina Siekierka

Graduate of International Relations specializing in Security and Strategic Studies at University of Warsaw. Erasmus student at the Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1) and the Institut d’Etudes Politique de Paris (Sciences Po Paris). Her research areas include human rights, climate change and armed conflicts.

Stanisław Waszczykowski

Reserve non-commissioned officer. Master's degree student in International Security and Diplomacy at the War Studies University in Warsaw, former trainee at the National Security Bureau. His research interests include issues related to UN peacekeeping operations and the security of Ukraine.

Leon Pińczak

A second-degree student at the University of Warsaw, majoring in international relations. A journalist of the Polish language edition of Belsat. Interested in the post-Soviet area, with a particular focus on Russian internal politics and Russian doctrines - foreign, defense and information-cybernetic.

Łukasz Kobierski

Programme director. Deputy President of the Management Board. Scholarship holder at the Daniel Morgan Graduate School of National Security in Washington and an expert in the field of international relations. Graduate of the University of Warsaw and the Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń

PhD Joanna Siekiera

International lawyer, Doctor of social sciences, postdoctor at the Faculty of Law, University of Bergen, Norway. She was a scholarship holder of the New Zealand government at the Victoria University of Wellington, Institute of Cultural Diplomacy in Germany, Institut de relations internationales et stratégiques in France.

Paweł Paszak

Graduate of International Relations (specialisation in East Asian Studies) from the University of Warsaw and scholarship holder at the University of Kent (UK) and Hainan University (China). PhD candidate at the University of Warsaw and the War Studies University. His research areas include the foreign policy of China and the strategic rivalry between China and the US in the Indo-Pacific.

Jakub Graca

Master of International Relations at the Jagiellonian University in Krakow. He also studied Arabic therein. An analyst at the Center for International Initiatives (Warsaw) and the Institute of New Europe. Research interests: United States (mainly foreign policy), transatlantic relations.

Patryk Szczotka

A graduate of Far Eastern Philology with a specialization in China Studies at the University of Wroclaw and a student of a double degree “China and International Relations” at Aalborg University and University of International Relations (国际关系学院) in Beijing. His research interests include EU-China political and economic relations, as well as diplomacy.

Three Seas Think Tanks Hub is a platform of cooperation among different think tanks based in 3SI member countries. Their common goal is to strengthen public debate and understanding of the Three Seas region seen from the political, economic and security perspective. The project aims at exchanging ideas, research and publications on the region’s potential and challenges.

Members

The Baltic Security Foundation (Latvia)

The BSF promotes the security and defense of the Baltic Sea region. It gathers security experts from the region and beyond, provides a platform for discussion and research, promotes solutions that lead to stronger regional security in the military and other areas.

The Institute for Politics and Society (Czech Republic)

The Institute analyses important economic, political, and social areas that affect today’s society. The mission of the Institute is to cultivate the Czech political and public sphere through professional and open discussion.

Nézöpont Institute (Hungary)

The Institute aims at improving Hungarian public life and public discourse by providing real data, facts and opinions based on those. Its primary focus points are Hungarian youth, media policy and Central European cooperation.

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (Austria)

The wiiw is one of the principal centres for research on Central, East and Southeast Europe with 50 years of experience. Over the years, the Institute has broadened its expertise, increasing its regional coverage – to European integration, the countries of Wider Europe and selected issues of the global economy.

The International Institute for Peace (Austria)

The Institute strives to address the most topical issues of the day and promote dialogue, public engagement, and a common understanding to ensure a holistic approach to conflict resolution and a durable peace. The IIP functions as a platform to promote peace and non-violent conflict resolution across the world.

The Institute for Regional and International Studies (Bulgaria)

The IRIS initiates, develops and implements civic strategies for democratic politics at the national, regional and international level. The Institute promotes the values of democracy, civil society, freedom and respect for law and assists the process of deepening Bulgarian integration in NATO and the EU.

The European Institute of Romania

EIR is a public institution whose mission is to provide expertise in the field of European Affairs to the public administration, the business community, the social partners and the civil society. EIR’s activity is focused on four key domains: research, training, communication, translation of the EHRC case-law.

The Institute of New Europe (Poland)

The Institute is an advisory and analytical non-governmental organisation active in the fields of international politics, international security and economics. The Institute supports policy-makers by providing them with expert opinions, as well as creating a platform for academics, publicists, and commentators to exchange ideas.

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