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Mar 30
Africa and Middle East, Coronavirus, Eastern Europe, European Union, France, Geopolitics, Iran, Military and army, NATO, Poland, Publications, Russia, Syria, Ukraine

Emmanuel Macron’s Risky Game and French-Russian Relations

March 30, 2020
INE_EMMANUEL MACRON’S RISKY GAME AND FRENCH-RUSSIAN RELATIONS Download

Emmanuel Macron’s pivot to Russia has surprised the geopolitical circle of foreign relations’ specialists, as such a scenario was something absolutely no one expected. On one hand, France and Germany are the countries that nowadays decide on the EU’s strength, and Berlin allows itself to maintain relations that benefit Germany (see Nord Stream 2). On the other hand, Paris did not send very clear signals that would suggest France’s willingness to pursuit a policy of outreach to Russia, particularly at such harsh times for the NATO and the EU.

France is testing the waters for potential international alliances. The election of Donald Trump as the U.S President resulted in a permanent and visible detachment between the U.S. and French politics. The impasse in the U.S. and French relations created a gap and made it possible for another country to enter the picture. This turned out to be a perfect moment for the Russian Federation to show its willingness to cement the ties with France. Macron questioned NATO’s effectiveness, stressing that the U.S., under the current administration, rejects the very concept of the international community, showing that the country should prioritise its interests first at the expense of other countries. Also other EU Member States expressed concern as to whether strengthening the NATO is still in their interest. Such sentiments have created instability on the geopolitical arena and they have given grounds for more intensified questioning of Washington’s objectives. As a result, some challenging questions arise as to whether the U.S. can still play the lead role in maintaining stabilisation in the EU, and what the Kremlin’s role and purpose in responding to Macron’s call for long-term relations is.

My stance is neither pro-Russian nor anti-Russian but simply pro-European.

Emmanuel Macron, Munich Security Conference, 15/02/2020.

Source: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/15/emmanuel-macron-sets-out-10-year-vision-for-eu-with-call-for-more-integration

There are a few common grounds on which the French and Russian treaty can be built:

Ending the war in Ukraine

France and Russia can find a solution to the conflict in Ukraine. The legitimacy of the 2014 Russian annexation of Crimea is particularly arguable. Currently, reaching a compromise that would help Ukraine in restoring its sovereignty over the eastern borders (French objective) and granting the Russian-speaking minorities living in eastern Ukraine (in the Luhansk and Donetsk districts) rights and protection (Russian objective) is of the utmost importance. These actions as part of a long-term strategy should assume a Normandy Format, and Emmanuel Macron should play a lead role in the negotiations.

I would like to point out that it is not quite right to say ‘the war in Ukraine’. It’s the war in Europe. And, together with the annexation of Crimea, it has already lasted the same period as the Second World War — six years.

President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, Munich Security Conference, 15/02/2020.

Source: https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/at-munich-conference-zelensky-calls-to-repair-european-security-starting-with-ukraine.html

Maintaining treaty with Iran

The French Republic and the Russian Federation can also become closer under the 2015 nuclear deal signed by Iran, the U.S., Russia, the UK, France, China and Germany. Trump’s administration has disapproved of this deal and refused to lift Iranian sanctions. Since then, Teheran has relaunched its nuclear weapons programme, challenging the the political and nuclear status quo. The situation evolved dynamically and Trump’s administration even considered waging a war against Iran. In such circumstances, France and Russia should share a common vision. The deal should be maintained to avoid the spread of nuclear weapons in the Middle East that is already vulnerable to numerous conflicts and tensions. Trump’s imposing sanctions on Iran has not concerned France at all. Irani President, Hassan Rouhani, who is a Russian ally, has found another ally in Europe. Emmanuel Macron offered to grant Iran a loan of USD 15 bn.

Finding a solution to the conflict in Syria

The prolonged civil war in Syria poses a threat not only to Syria itself, but to other countries in the region, and to Europe alike. As a results of attacks, thousands of people have died and millions have been forced to migrate. Refugees are now heading towards Europe. Russia plays an important role in this conflict – it decided to enter into the Syrian conflict as a military player and was also accused of assisting the government of Bashar al-Assad in carrying out a chemical weapons attack. Nowadays, Russia seeks to enter into an agreement with Turkey and Iran. While being of key importance to the Kremlin, the French support could also help in achieving ceasefire in Syria. France could play a lead role in ending the long-term and devastating war in which the Syrian citizens suffer the most.

Stabilisation in Central Africa

According to the French experts, private Russian military contractors play an important role in the Central African Republic conflict. Also in this case, stabilisation is possible when France and Russia, i.e. the country that has been permanently present in the region and the country that is re-establishing its presence there, reach a modus vivendi. Nowadays, Central Africa is less interesting to global watchdogs, but it plays an important role in the French and Russian relations. It can also constitute an element that will help in improving the bilateral relations between the two countries, and it can give grounds for future talks on more demanding topics.

French investments in Russia

It should be noted that Russia’s economic cooperation with individual EU Member States, including France, has not foundered. Foreign Direct Investment in Russia comes mainly from such big EU players as Germany and France, and over 500 Russian corporations have received a capital injection from the latter. Currently, the total French investment in the Russian economy totals approximately USD 15 bn.

Restoring collective security in Europe

OSCE’s powerlessness as regards verifying whether military treaties are observed and preventing conflicts in Europe, and the U.S. withdrawal from the INF Treaty that introduced a total ban on intermediate-range missiles, mean that France has assumed the lead role in negotiations with Moscow and Washington. If Emmanuel Macron wishes to cooperate with Russia, he must choose between solidarity with Eastern European allies (Poland and Baltic states) and Ukraine, and seeking a compromise with Vladimir Putin. The Russian President is also aware that granting any of the NATO member states, even France, substantial concessions may result in Russia’s isolation in Europe and lead to it’s losing its political clout. In such circumstances, both Macron’s and Putin’s goodwill will matter. There are no doubts that we are entering a new era of international relations in which France will play a key role.

Conclusions

Improving relations with the Kremlin would help the French President free from the U.S. geopolitical control. Emmanuel Macron is fighting for more autonomous and independent foreign policy, and – without the German participation – is advancing towards becoming the first Western leader and outrunning Donald Trump. He talks of assuming a new strategy towards Russia, which might find many supporters. He is aware that Russia’s position in Europe has deteriorated after annexation of Crimea, and he may use this in negotiations. At the same time, it seems that improving relations with France is of great importance to the Kremlin. Vladimir Putin would like to show the Western elites that regular partnership with Russia would be of benefit to them. It is interesting whether such cooperation will turn out to be fruitful.

Risks associated with coronavirus should also be taken into consideration. Will the COVID-19 pandemic affect the international situation and the relations between France and Russia? With all the crises that have already adversely impacted the situation in France, Emmanuel Macron does not seem to be ready to deal with yet another disaster that could ruin his chances in the 2022 presidential elections. Attempts to establish relations with Russia are an element of the French strategy of testing NATO and EU alliances, and a mean to seek potential opportunities to wield clout in Europe and Africa.

We are at war.

Emmanuel Macron on coronavirus threat, 16/03/2020.

Source: http://www.leparisien.fr/politique/coronavirus-confinement-municipales-entreprises-soignants-ce-qu-il-faut-retenir-des-annonces-d-emmanuel-macron-16-03-2020-8281587.php

Moreover, given the Russia’s coronavirus aid, Italy can become a Russian ally in the future. In such a situation, alliances in Europe should be redefined. There are no doubts that France’s tightening the ties with Russia and the coronavirus crisis are of great importance to Poland. From now on, the eyes should be turned to the East and the West alike. 

Sfinansowano przez Narodowy Instytut Wolności – Centrum Rozwoju Społeczeństwa Obywatelskiego ze środków Programu Rozwoju Organizacji Obywatelskich na lata 2018-2030.
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Aleksander Olech, PhD. Visiting lecturer at the Baltic Defence College. Graduate of the European Academy of Diplomacy and War Studies University. He has undertaken research at several international institutions, among others, the Université Jean Moulin III in Lyon, the Institute of International Relations in Prague, the Institute for Peace Support and Conflict Management in Vienna, the NATO Energy Security Centre of Excellence in Vilnius, and the NATO Centre of Excellence Defence Against Terrorism in Ankara. Scholarship holder of the OSCE & UNODA Peace and Security Programme, the NATO 2030 Global Fellowship, and the Casimir Pulaski Foundation. His main research interests include terrorism, international cooperation for security in Eastern Europe and the role of NATO and the EU with regard to hybrid threats.
Program Europa tworzą:

Marcin Chruściel

Dyrektor programu. Absolwent studiów doktoranckich z zakresu nauk o polityce na Uniwersytecie Wrocławskim, magister stosunków międzynarodowych i europeistyki Uniwersytetu Jagiellońskiego. Prezes Zarządu Instytutu Nowej Europy.

dr Artur Bartoszewicz

Przewodniczący Rady Programowej Instytutu Nowej Europy. Doktor nauk ekonomicznych Szkoły Głównej Handlowej. Ekspert w dziedzinie polityki publicznej, w tym m. in. strategii państwa i gospodarki.

Michał Banasiak

Specjalizuje się w relacjach sportu i polityki. Autor analiz, komentarzy i wywiadów z zakresu dyplomacji sportowej i polityki międzynarodowej. Były dziennikarz Polsat News i wysłannik redakcji zagranicznej Telewizji Polskiej.

Maciej Pawłowski

Ekspert ds. migracji, gospodarki i polityki państw basenu Morza Śródziemnego. W latach 2018-2020 Analityk PISM ds. Południowej Europy. Autor publikacji w polskiej i zagranicznej prasie na temat Hiszpanii, Włoch, Grecji, Egiptu i państw Magrebu. Od września 2020 r. mieszka w północnej Afryce (Egipt, Algieria).

Jędrzej Błaszczak

Absolwent studiów prawniczych Uniwersytetu Śląskiego w Katowicach. Jego zainteresowania badawcze koncentrują się na Inicjatywie Trójmorza i polityce w Bułgarii. Doświadczenie zdobywał w European Foundation of Human Rights w Wilnie, Center for the Study of Democracy w Sofii i polskich placówkach dyplomatycznych w Teheranie i Tbilisi.

Program Bezpieczeństwo tworzą:

dr Aleksander Olech

Dyrektor programu. Wykładowca na Baltic Defence College, absolwent Europejskiej Akademii Dyplomacji oraz Akademii Sztuki Wojennej. Jego główne zainteresowania badawcze to terroryzm, bezpieczeństwo w Europie Środkowo-Wschodniej oraz rola NATO i UE w środowisku zagrożeń hybrydowych.

dr Agnieszka Rogozińska

Członek Rady Programowej Instytutu Nowej Europy. Doktor nauk społecznych w dyscyplinie nauki o polityce. Zainteresowania badawcze koncentruje na problematyce bezpieczeństwa euroatlantyckiego, instytucjonalnym wymiarze bezpieczeństwa i współczesnych zagrożeniach.

Aleksy Borówka

Doktorant na Wydziale Nauk Społecznych Uniwersytetu Wrocławskiego, Przewodniczący Krajowej Reprezentacji Doktorantów w kadencji 2020. Autor kilkunastu prac naukowych, poświęconych naukom o bezpieczeństwie, naukom o polityce i administracji oraz stosunkom międzynarodowym. Laureat I, II oraz III Międzynarodowej Olimpiady Geopolitycznej.

Karolina Siekierka

Absolwentka Uniwersytetu Warszawskiego na kierunku stosunki międzynarodowe, specjalizacji Bezpieczeństwo i Studia Strategiczne. Jej zainteresowania badawcze obejmują politykę zagraniczną i wewnętrzną Francji, prawa człowieka oraz konflikty zbrojne.

Stanisław Waszczykowski

Podoficer rezerwy, student studiów magisterskich na kierunku Bezpieczeństwo Międzynarodowe i Dyplomacja na Akademii Sztuki Wojennej, były praktykant w BBN. Jego zainteresowania badawcze obejmują m.in. operacje pokojowe ONZ oraz bezpieczeństwo Ukrainy.

Leon Pińczak

Student studiów drugiego stopnia na Uniwersytecie Warszawskim na kierunku stosunki międzynarodowe. Dziennikarz polskojęzycznej redakcji Biełsatu. Zawodowo zajmuje się obszarem postsowieckim, rosyjską polityką wewnętrzną i doktrynami FR. Biegle włada językiem rosyjskim.

Program Indo-Pacyfik tworzą:

Łukasz Kobierski

Dyrektor programu. Współzałożyciel INE oraz prezes zarządu w latach 2019-2021. Stypendysta szkoleń z zakresu bezpieczeństwa na Daniel Morgan Graduate School of National Security w Waszyngtonie, ekspert od stosunków międzynarodowych. Absolwent Uniwersytetu Warszawskiego oraz Uniwersytetu Mikołaja Kopernika. Wiceprezes Zarządu INE.

dr Joanna Siekiera

Prawnik międzynarodowy, doktor nauk społecznych, adiunkt na Wydziale Prawa Uniwersytetu w Bergen w Norwegii. Była stypendystką rządu Nowej Zelandii na Uniwersytecie Victorii w Wellington, niemieckiego Institute of Cultural Diplomacy, a także francuskiego Institut de relations internationales et stratégiques.

Paweł Paszak

Absolwent stosunków międzynarodowych (spec. Wschodnioazjatycka) na Uniwersytecie Warszawskim oraz stypendysta University of Kent (W. Brytania) i Hainan University (ChRL). Doktorant UW i Akademii Sztuki Wojennej. Jego zainteresowania badawcze obejmują politykę zagraniczną ChRL oraz strategiczną rywalizację Chiny-USA.

Jakub Graca

Magister stosunków międzynarodowych na Uniwersytecie Jagiellońskim; studiował także filologię orientalną (specjalność: arabistyka). Analityk Centrum Inicjatyw Międzynarodowych (Warszawa) oraz Instytutu Nowej Europy. Zainteresowania badawcze: Stany Zjednoczone (z naciskiem na politykę zagraniczną), relacje transatlantyckie.

Patryk Szczotka

Absolwent filologii dalekowschodniej ze specjalnością chińską na Uniwersytecie Wrocławskim oraz student kierunku double degree China and International Relations na Aalborg University oraz University of International Relations (国际关系学院) w Pekinie. Jego zainteresowania naukowe to relacje polityczne i gospodarcze UE-ChRL oraz dyplomacja.

The programme's team:

Marcin Chruściel

Programme director. Graduate of PhD studies in Political Science at the University of Wroclaw and Master studies in International Relations at the Jagiellonian University in Krakow. President of the Management Board at the Institute of New Europe.

PhD Artur Bartoszewicz

Chairman of the Institute's Programme Board. Doctor of Economic Sciences at the SGH Warsaw School of Economics. Expert in the field of public policy, including state and economic strategies. Expert at the National Centre for Research and Development and the Digital Poland Projects Centre.

Michał Banasiak

He specializes in relationship of sports and politics. Author of analysis, comments and interviews in the field of sports diplomacy and international politics. Former Polsat News and Polish Television’s foreign desk journalist.

Maciej Pawłowski

Expert on migration, economics and politics of Mediterranean countries. In the period of 2018-2020 PISM Analyst on Southern Europe. Author of various articles in Polish and foreign press about Spain, Italy, Greece, Egypt and Maghreb countries. Since September 2020 lives in North Africa (Egypt, Algeria).

Jędrzej Błaszczak

Graduate of Law at the University of Silesia. His research interests focus on the Three Seas Initiative and politics in Bulgaria. He acquired experience at the European Foundation of Human Rights in Vilnius, the Center for the Study of Democracy in Sofia, and in Polish embassies in Tehran and Tbilisi.

PhD Aleksander Olech

Programme director. Visiting lecturer at the Baltic Defence College, graduate of the European Academy of Diplomacy and War Studies University. His main research interests include terrorism, international cooperation for security in Eastern Europe and the role of NATO and the EU with regard to hybrid threats.

PhD Agnieszka Rogozińska

Member of the Institute's Programme Board. Doctor of Social Sciences in the discipline of Political Science. Editorial secretary of the academic journals "Politics & Security" and "Independence: journal devoted to Poland's recent history". Her research interests focus on security issues.

Aleksy Borówka

PhD candidate at the Faculty of Social Sciences in the University of Wroclaw, the President of the Polish National Associations of PhD Candidates in 2020. The author of dozen of scientific papers, concerning security studies, political science, administration, international relations. Laureate of the I, II and III International Geopolitical Olympiad.

Karolina Siekierka

Graduate of International Relations specializing in Security and Strategic Studies at University of Warsaw. Erasmus student at the Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1) and the Institut d’Etudes Politique de Paris (Sciences Po Paris). Her research areas include human rights, climate change and armed conflicts.

Stanisław Waszczykowski

Reserve non-commissioned officer. Master's degree student in International Security and Diplomacy at the War Studies University in Warsaw, former trainee at the National Security Bureau. His research interests include issues related to UN peacekeeping operations and the security of Ukraine.

Leon Pińczak

A second-degree student at the University of Warsaw, majoring in international relations. A journalist of the Polish language edition of Belsat. Interested in the post-Soviet area, with a particular focus on Russian internal politics and Russian doctrines - foreign, defense and information-cybernetic.

Łukasz Kobierski

Programme director. Deputy President of the Management Board. Scholarship holder at the Daniel Morgan Graduate School of National Security in Washington and an expert in the field of international relations. Graduate of the University of Warsaw and the Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń

PhD Joanna Siekiera

International lawyer, Doctor of social sciences, postdoctor at the Faculty of Law, University of Bergen, Norway. She was a scholarship holder of the New Zealand government at the Victoria University of Wellington, Institute of Cultural Diplomacy in Germany, Institut de relations internationales et stratégiques in France.

Paweł Paszak

Graduate of International Relations (specialisation in East Asian Studies) from the University of Warsaw and scholarship holder at the University of Kent (UK) and Hainan University (China). PhD candidate at the University of Warsaw and the War Studies University. His research areas include the foreign policy of China and the strategic rivalry between China and the US in the Indo-Pacific.

Jakub Graca

Master of International Relations at the Jagiellonian University in Krakow. He also studied Arabic therein. An analyst at the Center for International Initiatives (Warsaw) and the Institute of New Europe. Research interests: United States (mainly foreign policy), transatlantic relations.

Patryk Szczotka

A graduate of Far Eastern Philology with a specialization in China Studies at the University of Wroclaw and a student of a double degree “China and International Relations” at Aalborg University and University of International Relations (国际关系学院) in Beijing. His research interests include EU-China political and economic relations, as well as diplomacy.

Three Seas Think Tanks Hub is a platform of cooperation among different think tanks based in 3SI member countries. Their common goal is to strengthen public debate and understanding of the Three Seas region seen from the political, economic and security perspective. The project aims at exchanging ideas, research and publications on the region’s potential and challenges.

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Nézöpont Institute (Hungary)

The Institute aims at improving Hungarian public life and public discourse by providing real data, facts and opinions based on those. Its primary focus points are Hungarian youth, media policy and Central European cooperation.

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (Austria)

The wiiw is one of the principal centres for research on Central, East and Southeast Europe with 50 years of experience. Over the years, the Institute has broadened its expertise, increasing its regional coverage – to European integration, the countries of Wider Europe and selected issues of the global economy.

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The Institute strives to address the most topical issues of the day and promote dialogue, public engagement, and a common understanding to ensure a holistic approach to conflict resolution and a durable peace. The IIP functions as a platform to promote peace and non-violent conflict resolution across the world.

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