Mikołaj Woźniak, Konrad Falkowski
French aperitif for Xi Jinping
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying officially announced at a press conference on April 29 that the President of the People’s Republic of China, Xi Jinping, will go on his planned trip to Europe, during which he will visit three countries: France, Serbia and Hungary and meet with their leaders: President Emmanuel Macron, Aleksandar Vučić and President Tamás Sulyok and Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. Xi’s European tour will last from May 5 to 10. This will be his first trip to Europe in five years, aimed at improving relations with the European Union.
However, observing the activities of French diplomacy, it was possible to notice the efforts of the French, which are expected to provide better ground for Xi’s visit in May. Namely, on April 1, French Foreign Minister Stéphane Séjourné spent time in talks with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi and the Prime Minister of the People’s Republic of China, Li Qiang. The issues raised concerned the war in Ukraine and China’s influence on its future, as well as European economic dependency reduction in bilateral relations between the European Union and the People’s Republic of China. In the first case, Séjourné directly said that France or even Europe expects China to “send a very clear signal to Russia” to end hostilities. Moreover, according to the head of French diplomacy, “there will be no lasting peace if it is not negotiated with the Ukrainians.” These words were a kind of response to the theses repeatedly pushed by the Chinese about the need to include Russia in the European security architecture. As for the issue of “de-risking“, France does not plan to completely “cut off” from the People’s Republic of China. At this point, the French side proposes “restoring economic balance”, which would translate into “healthy and balanced” trade relations. Wang Yi appreciated the French rejection of “decoupling” and concluded that decoupling from China was impossible, and that “decoupling” was the “greatest risk”. During the talks with the Chinese Prime Minister, the topic of independence and self-reliance, or the “strategic autonomy” of Europe, was raised – Séjourné referred to the famous words of President Emmanuel Macron, which were widely echoed during his visit to Beijing last year.
But this was not the end of the French aperitif, as the French served the President of the People’s Republic of China with more portions. On April 25, a meeting took place between General Wang Xiubin, commander of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army’s Southern Theater Command, and French Rear Admiral Geoffroy d’Andigne, commander of the maritime zones of the Pacific Ocean and French Polynesia. The conversation concerned, among others, communication, and cooperation between theaters of operations and the international and regional security situation. An agreement was also reached on cross-theater cooperation as China’s response to the presence of French troops during Philippine-American exercises in the South China Sea. One may wonder at this point whether this meeting was planned before Xi’s visit to Paris or a result of the geopolitical situation in that region. Nevertheless, this cannot be ignored as part of the French attempts to improve their negotiating position. It was similar in the case of the visit of the president of Renault, Luca de Meo, who recently in March sent an open letter to EU decision-makers in which he called for a common strategy against the Chinese electric car industry. On April 26, the same Luca de Meo met with representatives of Chinese technology companies to “newly open” potential cooperation. It is impossible not to notice that this is another wink at the leader of the People’s Republic of China before the May talks. The most interesting question, however, is whether the above-mentioned efforts of the French will help at all during the meeting in Paris. This will can be a topic for the further discussion.
EU’s problem with Chinese suppliers of wind turbines
The European Commission will soon investigate the case of wind turbines from China. It was announced by the European Commissioner for Competition Protection, Margethe Vestager, on April 9. It did not provide information on exactly which companies will be checked, but the investigation will focus primarily on the conditions under which wind parks were established in Spain, Greece, France, Romania, and Bulgaria. Just in 2023, the EU imported turbines and components worth USD 1.42 billion from China.
Investigations in this matter are being conducted primarily due to growing concerns in Europe and the US regarding emerging information indicating that Chinese companies are being dumped by Beijing. These parties accuse China of unfair competition and deliberate action aimed at eliminating its local producers. Previously, in 2009-2021, the Chinese government openly subsidized wind energy programs, and local governments and the central bank continue to do so indirectly to this day. An example of this action is last year’s 25% (up to $1.2 trillion) increase in production loans at four large Chinese state-owned banks, which was directed to strategic sectors such as technology and clean energy, including wind energy. At the same time, in Europe, state financing of domestic producers was prohibited in order to strengthen their competitiveness by offering lower prices or deferring payments, in accordance with OECD free trade principles. Even though European Siemens Energy and Vestas are still among the leading suppliers of wind turbines for European wind farms, they increasingly feel the growing competition from their cheaper Chinese competitors. This situation threatens their position because the prices of turbines from Chinese producers are about 20% lower, which is expected to weaken the position of European entrepreneurs in the global race related to the development of more efficient and cheaper turbines.
According to the Global Wind Energy Council, in 2023 China had the largest wind turbine production capacity, accounting for 60% of global production. China’s position was expressed on April 10 by Foreign Ministry spokesman Mao Ning. She criticized the EU’s attitude and considered its policy to be protectionist. She also added that the European side uses discriminatory tools that affect Chinese enterprises and industry in the EU, which is a violation of the rules of the World Trade Organization.
Meloni and China
Italy is trying to find a new deal in relations with the Chinese. This was noticed by journalist Donato Paolo Mancini in Bloomberg, who stated that Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni was looking for or demanding a “reset with China” after Italy’s exit from China’s Belt and Road Initiative last year. The above-mentioned withdrawal was as surprising as joining the Initiative in 2019 – Italy was the first country from the G7 to join the Chinese project. However, the situation began to change with the advent of the government of Georgia Meloni, who, even before taking over as prime minister, strongly advocated limiting China’s too strong economic position in Europe: “There is no political will on my part to favor Chinese expansion into Italy or Europe.” According to Mancini, Meloni’s policy will be a political triumph ” if she manages to retain trade ties with China that are important for the business community, while also having kept a promise to her party, the Brothers of Italy, which wanted Rome to quit the BRI, which is also referred to as the Silk Way.”
Therefore, on April 11 and 12, Italian Minister of Foreign Affairs Antonio Tajani and Chinese Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao took part in the 15th Italy-China Joint Commission for Economic and Trade Cooperation, and also participated in the opening of the Business and Dialogue Forum. Both events took place in the Italian cities of Venice and Verona. The Joint Commission is a format that is the main instrument of economic and trade cooperation between Italy and China and also one of the dialogue mechanisms of the Global Strategic Partnership, which was established in 2004. In turn, the aim of the Business and Dialogue Forum is to support discussion and cooperation in sectors important for the economy and trade. During the press conference Tajani, asked about these sectors, replied that they were: agricultural, e-commerce, investment, pharmaceutical and biomedical. He further stated that due to the fact that Italy is a “strong export-oriented” country, China “remains a strategic economic and trade partner for us.” There were also questions about the role to be played by the Joint Economic Commission. Tajani replied that this initiative “will enable us to consolidate the current stage of redefining and resuming bilateral relations.”
Today, it is clear that the Italians are trying to play with the Chinese in a different way, they want to return to cooperation, but not necessarily within the BRI format, which is more of a threat than a development opportunity for the Italian ruling coalition. So, in short, it can be said that the Italian prime minister wants to have the Chinese cake and eat it too.
Scholz and his China trip
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, going on a three-day trip to the People’s Republic of China, raised hopes that the European Union would maintain its hard line in terms of reducing economic dependence on China – the so-called de-risking policy. However, according to many researchers, it was completely different. Another equally important topic discussed at that time was the war in Ukraine. On April 14, Olaf Scholz began his visit to China. Before the meeting with the President of the People’s Republic of China, Xi Jinping, Scholz went on a sightseeing tour of China, i.e. first he went to Chongqing – a Chinese city where, among others, a branch of Bosch dealing with the development of the hydrogen industry. It is worth noting that at that time the German Chancellor spoke firmly about Iran’s attacks on Israel, warning that such actions would only lead to further escalation of the conflict. The second stop was Shanghai, where he visited the Innovation Center of the Covestro company, which produces plastics, and held a meeting with students from Tongji University, during which he was asked, among others, about the legalization of marijuana in Germany. Only on the last day of his stay in China, Scholz arrived in Beijing, where he talked with Xi and the Chinese Prime Minister Li Qiang.
At the very beginning, it should be noted that Scholz was accompanied by a large delegation, which, in addition to the ministers of agriculture, digitization, transport and environment, also consisted of 12 representatives of German industrial concerns, such as Mercedes, Volkswagen, BMW and BASF, which was already announced at beginning of April. Therefore, Andreas Fulda, a German researcher and publicist, seeing photos of the talks in which these representatives took part, sarcastically asked on his profile on the X platform: “Who holds the real power in German foreign policy?” This question is extremely justified, looking at the whole matter from the perspective of the EU reducing the risk in economic relations with China, which – it cannot be denied – is very unfavorable for German tycoons who want to further deepen relations with the Chinese. According to analysts from the Polish Institute of International Affairs, the main goal of the German Chancellor’s visit “was to stabilize bilateral relations, with a special emphasis on economic cooperation.” But as it turned out, his approach in the conversation with Xi was not “combative” but “conciliatory”, as Alexandra Stevenson and Melissa Eddy put it in The New York Times. The Chinese message states that Scholz gave Beijing reasons to claim that “the German side opposes protectionism and supports free trade. As an important member of the EU, Germany is ready to play a positive role in promoting the sound development of EU-China relations,” which hits hard at the EU’s policies. Thus, it can be suspected that this turn of events will, to some extent, contribute to weakening the development of de-risking, and also indicates a lack of unity among EU countries, which will only weaken the position of the European Union in the international arena.
Scholz’s actions aimed at convincing the President of the People’s Republic of China to “contain” Russia also did not prove groundbreaking. He allegedly asked Xi to “influence” Vladimir Putin to end the war in Ukraine. However, it is very doubtful that any requests or pressure in this matter could come true, especially when the European side completely excludes the possibility of entering into peace talks with Russia, which is extremely important for China. This, in turn, translates into the importance of the planned peace conference in Switzerland. Xi does not deny its meaning in any way, on the contrary – he openly supports it, but believes that it must be recognized “by both Russia and Ukraine, with the equal participation of all parties” – on the same lines, it can be predicted that until the West gives way, there will still be no understanding in the matter of Ukraine between Brussels and Beijing.
Chinese espionage in Germany and Europe
About a week after Chancellor Scholz’s visit to China, two espionage scandals broke out in Germany, with Beijing directly blamed. On April 22, the German federal prosecutor informed the public that three German citizens had been arrested on suspicion of conducting espionage activities for the People’s Republic of China. Those arrested were supposed to provide the Chinese secret services with information about the most modern machine parts for engines used in naval ships. The three defendants are Herwig F. and Ina F. – a married couple running their own company in Dusseldorf, which concluded a cooperation agreement with a German university involving the preparation of a study for an employee of the Ministry of State Security of the PRC on machine parts that can be used in marine engines on warships – and Thomas R., whom German prosecutors described as an agent working for the Chinese secret services. It is suspected that those arrested were allegedly involved in research projects that could be useful to the Chinese in order to increase China’s naval power. Nancy Faeser, Minister of the Interior of Germany, emphasized in her statement the government’s activities in monitoring espionage which constitute a serious security threat to German business, industry, and science. The People’s Republic of China, through its embassy in Berlin, firmly rejected the German accusations of scientific espionage and called on the Federal Republic of Germany “to stop using espionage allegations to politically manipulate China’s image and defame China.”
In turn, after just one day, another person suspected of spying for the People’s Republic of China was arrested again in Germany. On April 23, German police arrested an associate of the German far-right party Alternative for Germany. According to information provided by the German prosecutor’s office, the suspected espionage is Jian G. (Guo), who serves as an assistant to one of the leading AfD candidates in the European Parliament elections – Maximilian Krah. Those who investigating the case suspect that the detainee could have passed on information regarding discussions taking place in the EU legislative structures to the Chinese Ministry of State Security. Prosecutors believe that the man could have been conducting his espionage activities for many years. Investigators also accused Guo of spying on Chinese opposition activists living in exile in Germany, posing as a dissident and passing information to his contact. The Chinese side responded to the German accusations on the same day. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbing commented on this during a press conference, saying that it was primarily “the media hype” intended to discredit China in the eyes of public opinion and undermine “the atmosphere of cooperation between China and the European Union.” Moreover, he expressed his hopes that “relevant people in Germany will ditch the Cold War mentality and stop the political manipulation aimed at China with so-called spy risks.”
However, it cannot be denied that the problem of Chinese espionage is recurring more and more often. In February, this topic was widely discussed in the Netherlands, when it was reported that Chinese hackers had attacked Dutch defense institutions. Also in April, a similar incident occurred in the UK. British police have charged two men with espionage for China, one of whom allegedly worked as a researcher for one of the MPs from the Conservative Party. Meanwhile, Chinese journalists were expelled from Sweden, stating that they constituted a “threat to state security”. Chinese spies will pose an increasing problem not only for the security of the European Union and its member states, but also for the countries of the North Atlantic Alliance. European decision-makers – both at the EU and NATO levels – must pay closer attention to Chinese intelligence activities and take appropriate steps to counter the problem of Chinese espionage.
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