Mikołaj Woźniak, Konrad Falkowski
Robert Fico in China
At the turn of October and November, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico went on a tour of China. He was accompanied on the trip by a large delegation, consisting of eight ministers, two deputy ministers and 77 representatives of 56 Slovak companies. Fico’s trip itself was supposed to take place earlier – in June this year. However, it was postponed due to the injuries he sustained during an assassination attempt in May this year.
From October 31 to November 5, Fico visited Beijing, Hefei and Shanghai. He reported to the Chinese capital at the beginning of his trip, where on November 1 he held an official meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping. During the meeting, the parties announced the conclusion of a strategic partnership. Its implementation involved the signing of 13 documents on bilateral cooperation, including numerous protocols on trade and investment, transport, tourism, environment and culture. As part of the agreement, both parties agreed to introduce a 15-day visa-free travel to China for Slovak citizens. Additionally, Fico announced plans to establish a direct air connection between Bratislava and Beijing.
During the visit, issues of international security were also raised, including the Ukrainian-Russian war. Prime Minister Fico emphasized that Slovakia is ready to join the “Friends of Peace” group established by China and Brazil within the UN, which aims to resolve the conflict in Ukraine. On his Facebook profile, the Prime Minister noted that China could play a key role in resolving the conflict. In Beijing, Fico and the delegation also met with Chinese Premier Li Qiang and the Speaker of Parliament Zhao Leji.
On November 4, the Slovak delegation left Beijing for Hefei, the capital of the Chinese province of Anhui. Fico was received there by the province’s general secretary, Liang Yans-hun, with whom he discussed Gotion’s planned investment. The company, headquartered in Anhui province, is soon to begin an investment in Slovakia to build a lithium-ion (Li-ion) cell and battery plant. During his visit, Fico visited the Gotion plant, met with its management, and toured its research and development center. In Hefei, the prime minister also gave a lecture to students on Slovakia’s foreign policy priorities and China’s global role. Toward the end of his trip, Fico attended the opening of the CIIE international import fair in Shanghai.
The Slovak delegation’s trip was negatively assessed by Slovak opposition parties, which raised concerns about the newly established “strategic partnership”. In their opinion, the “alliance” with China heralds potential threats to Slovakia’s internal affairs. Juraj Krúpa, a defense and security expert from the opposition SAS party, among others, spoke on this issue. He accused Fico of being subservient to Russian propaganda, suggesting that the prime minister was criticizing Western support for Ukraine while omitting the fact that China and North Korea support Russia. The lack of Slovak media in the delegation was also criticized, which, according to the opposition, undermines the transparency of the visit. Milan Majerský from the KDH party expressed concern that tightening relations with China could lead to the arrival of Chinese secret services, similar to what happened in Hungary. Tomasz Valašek from the Progressive Slovakia party criticised the risk of the country becoming dependent on a regime that does not respect democratic principles and warned of the consequences, using the examples of North Macedonia and Montenegro.
Sergio Mattarella in China
Italian President Sergio Mattarelli’s trip took place between 7 and 12 November. His first stop was the Summer Palace, where he met with Chinese leader Xi Jinping. The talks between the parties mainly focused on security issues and issues facing the international community, including conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. It was the first visit by an Italian president to China since 2017, aimed at restoring balance in bilateral relations, especially after Italy’s decision not to extend the memorandum on China’s Belt and Road Initiative in December last year.
After the talks, Xi and Mattarella went to a meeting with participants of the Italy-China Cultural Forum. It was attended by Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani, Chinese Minister of Culture Sun Yeli and Director of the Italian Encyclopedia Institute Massimo Bray. During the forum, 10 agreements were signed regulating cultural, scientific, cinematographic and competition cooperation. These agreements included a partnership agreement between Villa d’Este in Tivoli (Rome) and the Summer Palace in Beijing, a cooperation protocol between the cities of Verona and Hangzhou, and a memorandum between the Agency for the Promotion of Italian Companies Abroad and Internationalization (ICE) and the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade. All documents were signed in the presence of President Mattarella and Xi, who emphasized that the Italian leader’s visit would contribute to the further development of bilateral relations. Then on November 9, in Beijing, President Mattarella held meetings with Chinese Premier Li Qiang and Chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress (NPC), Zhao Lejie.
In the following days of his trip, the Italian president visited Hangzhou, and then Canton, where on November 11 he visited the Chen Clan Ancestral Hall and the Chen Ancestral Academy, which is currently located in the Guangdong Folk Art Museum. On Tuesday, November 12, the last day of his visit to China, the president met with representatives of the Italian business community in China. On the same day, he also held talks with the secretary of the Communist Party of China in Guangdong Province, Huang Kunming, at the Bayun International Conference Center.
The Sino-American-German espionage incident
On 7 November, the German federal prosecutor’s office informed the public about yet another espionage incident in Germany. This time, a citizen of the United States – Martin D. – was accused of spying for the People’s Republic of China. He was arrested in Frankfurt am Main by officers of the Federal Criminal Police Office, who were investigating the case. As part of this, his apartment was also searched. D. allegedly offered his “services” to the Chinese secret services he contacted this year. These “services” were to consist in the transfer of sensitive military information relating to the United States. The key thing in this situation is D. was able to obtain the above information while working in the U.S. Armed Forces. According to the report of the German weekly “Der Spiegel“, the arrested D. is 37 years old and has recently been employed by the American army stationed in Mainz. Nevertheless, he was not to be a professional soldier, but a civilian employee.
It is worth reminding at this point that this is yet another spy scandal in Germany with the People’s Republic of China in the background. We wrote about other incidents in previous editions of the Review, for example in April, when as many as two scandals took place – day by day, or in October, when a woman was detained for carrying information on the logistics of defence equipment in Germany.
EU-China consultation on price undertakings
On the first day of November, during his speech, a spokesman for the Ministry of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China was asked by journalists about the veracity of reports regarding the European Union’s planned to send a special delegation to China to negotiate price commitments in connection with countervailing duties imposed on Chinese electric vehicles. The ministry’s representative cited the event of a video conversation between Chinese Trade Minister Wang Wentao and EU Trade Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis on October 25 this year. He reminded reporters that during the consultations there, both sides had agreed that negotiations related to price commitments would continue, which was to be stated by the EU itself. He also admitted that “China welcomes” this information and expressed the hope that in the case of future negotiations they will be based on the principle of “pragmatism and balance” in order to achieve a solution that will be accepted by both the Chinese and European sides.
Negotiations between the EU and China, announced at the beginning of November, in connection with a possible agreement on price undertakings for Chinese electric vehicles, have actually taken place. According to the accounts of both parties, the round of negotiations lasted from 2 to 7 November and that ” technical progress on elements that will need to be addressed to ensure that a price undertaking would be equally effective and enforceable”. In addition, both sides discussed “constructively and thoroughly” the issue of how the minimum import price for Chinese electric cars should be determined. The European Union has indicated that, in accordance with the rules of the World Trade Organization, it has the possibility to make price undertakings for the various companies that participate in the investigation, so it does not have to negotiate strictly with the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products, but also with individual Chinese exporters. Both the EU and the PRC also confirmed that further negotiations would continue based on the progress made.
When asked about the above consultations, a spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce of the PRC positively assessed the progress in negotiations on setting price undertakings, claiming that this could contribute to the improvement of relations between Beijing and Brussels: “China believes that progress in negotiations as a whole based on the price commitment plan presented by the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products on behalf of the industry will be conducive to maintaining mutual trust, accelerating consensus and resolving differences through consultations to avoid escalating conflicts and trade frictions.”
Kaja Kallas sharply towards Beijing again
Kaja Kallas, the new head of EU diplomacy, is well known for not biting her tongue when it comes to Putin and his Russia. She deserved the lack of liking from the Kremlin mainly because of the large-scale decommunization of the country in the form of dismantling Soviet monuments. For this move, described by Dmitry Peskov – the Kremlin’s spokesman – as a “desecration of historical memory”, a Russian arrest warrant was issued for her. What is more, she had to deny rumors about the alleged “eating Russians for breakfast”. As it turned out, for breakfast she prefers muesli with yoghurt and blueberries much more than the Russians.
Now Kallas is once again showing that she does not intend to spare the People’s Republic of China, which unofficially stands in alliance with the Russians, supporting them in the war against Ukraine introduced by Moscow. In the previous edition of the Review, we wrote about her views on the PRC expressed in a letter to the European Parliament as part of the procedure for approving her candidacy. On 12 November, during her speech to the European Parliament, she again raised issues related to China. Kallas warned that ” Russia, Iran, North Korea, and – more covertly – China, want to change the rules-based world order.” It is worth noting here that the term “more covertly” in relation to China may suggest that Europe still harbors some hopes for China and does not want to ultimately classify it as a hostile state. But isn’t China’s discretion proof that the PRC poses an even greater threat to the global order? Certainly, EU decision-makers, including Kallas, are aware of this, but the desire to find some starting points for cooperation requires such diplomatic formulations. However, knowing the sharpness of Kallas’s language, she said directly that China is becoming less and less of a partner and more and more of a competitor and rival, and that European dependence on China in certain sectors is a ” real vulnerability”. She went on to note that the United States cannot completely focus on China, thus abandoning Ukraine, just as China must “feel the costs” of supporting Russia’s war of aggression. Thus, a dynamic and turbulent period is in store for EU diplomacy under the leadership of the new EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, who will have to properly play both Putin’s Russia and Xi’s China, as well as America for the newly elected Trump.
Scholz and Xi on the sidelines of the G20 summit
On 19 November, Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Chinese President Xi Jinping met on the sidelines of the G20 summit in November. The two main topics of discussion during this meeting were bilateral German-Chinese relations and the war in Ukraine. Scholz stated that it is crucial for the conditions of future joint work that “a level playing field accompanies the economic activities of companies on all sides”, which can be understood as an attempt to convince Xi that German companies do not have difficult access to the Chinese market, as well as a form of expression of German economic interests. Xi, in turn, stressed that “China and Germany are two major countries with significant influence” and assured his interlocutor that China will “continue to provide broad market opportunities for German companies.” In this way, he also called for the development of ‘strategic’ and ‘long-term’ relations with Germany. He also acknowledged that “China-Germany relations continue to glow with new vitality and dynamism.” Moreover, the leader of the People’s Republic of China brought up the issue of EU tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. In his opinion, Germany is able to help China resolve this conflict with the European Union: “The EU’s tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles are drawing attention around the world, and China always insists on resolving differences through dialogue and consultation. It is hoped that Germany will continue to play an important role in this regard.”
Referring to the issue of the war in Ukraine, the German chancellor admitted that it is “important” to hold talks between powers such as Germany and China about the problems of the modern world, citing the example of the war waged by Russia. On the other hand, Scholz – as assumed by Andreas Rinke from Reuters – also touched on the Taiwanese thread, saying that “No one should have to fear their neighbours. That is a very central principle of peace in the world, which we are committed to.” However, this statement can be applied to many places in the world. In addition, Scholz also referred to the issue of North Korean soldiers on the Ukrainian front, which, in his opinion, is tantamount to a further escalation of the conflict, and to make it clear to the Chinese leader that Germany is opposed to the PRC supplying weapons to Russia.
Macron and Xi on the sidelines of the G20 summit
Another meeting on the sidelines of the summit in Rio de Janeiro was the meeting between Xi Jinping and French President Emmanuel Macron. As in the case of the conversation with Scholz, the main topics were bilateral relations and the war in Ukraine. The trade conflict between the European Union and the People’s Republic of China has a direct impact on France – we are talking about Chinese tariffs on cognac from Europe. Therefore, as part of the solution to this problem, both leaders admitted that they are aiming for “a favorable outcome” when it comes to tariffs on cognac. Macron further announced that Prime Minister Michel Barnier is planning to travel to Beijing next year to talk to his counterpart Li Qiang. However, developments in France thwarted Macron’s November plans, as the French parliament passed a vote of no confidence in Barnier in early December, causing the collapse of his government. The planned trip to China by the French prime minister will probably take place anyway, but France will be represented by someone completely different. Returning to the meeting in Rio, however, Macron said that his country would continue to promote “strategic autonomy, precisely to be able to talk with China in complete independence.” Xi replied that the current world is full of “risks and challenges” and that “the future trend may be more uncertain and unpredictable” which does not change the fact that the relationship between Beijing and Paris is of “unique strategic and global significance.” Xi also added that he was fully ready to work with France “to deepen strategic communication, strengthen mutually beneficial cooperation, and jointly respond to changes and challenges.”
As for the war in Ukraine, according to the French president, China has a key importance in limiting the nuclear escalation of the conflict, which is related to the update of the nuclear doctrine of the Russian Federation announced by Vladimir Putin. In this regard, Macron at a meeting with Xi reportedly asked him to put pressure on Putin to end Russia’s war against Ukraine: “You share like us the same concern following Russia’s bellicose and escalatory declarations on nuclear doctrine,” the French president said. He also added that the appearance of North Koreans on the front with Ukraine should give Beijing food for thought, which should demand de-escalation all the more. According to a statement from the Chinese news agency Xinhua, the two sides ” exchanged views on the Ukraine crisis,” and President Xi noted that China’s position on the issue is “consistent” and “China hopes that the conflict will be eased.” However, the key words of Xi seem to have been included in the quoted text: ” nor escalation of the conflict is what China wants to see; instead, China will continue to play a constructive role in its own way for the ceasefire and end of the conflict” The question is what exactly it means to play a constructive role “in your own way”. The reality suggests that this is “pro-Russian” neutrality and help in circumventing sanctions. But China certainly sees it differently.
Sweden asks for cooperation in the investigation of the incident in the Baltic Sea
On November 18, a dangerous incident took place in the waters of the Baltic Sea, in which two undersea fiber optic cables were damaged – one of them was a connection between Finland and Germany, second – between Sweden and Lithuania. From the very beginning, it was suspected that this was a form of planned sabotage. As a result of the investigation, a Chinese ship (bulk carrier) called Yi Peng 3, which began its course from the Russian port of Ust-Luga on November 15, was accused of this. Reuters, citing an analysis of MarineTraffic data, showed that the ship’s coordinates correspond to the place and time of the incident. Journalists from The Wall Street Journal suggest based on the investigation that the incident was in fact deliberate sabotage – the captain of the ship was supposed to deliberately lower the anchor at a given place so that it would cut the cables. On November 20, the Danish navy detained the suspicious ship in its exclusive economic zone.
Sweden made its first request for cooperation on November 26 directly to the Yi Peng 3 ship to return it to Swedish waters to facilitate the investigation. Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, addressing the ship, noted that he was not accusing anyone of sabotage because of this move. “We’re not making any accusations, but we seek clarity on what has happened,” Kristersson said during a press conference referring to the situation.
Two days later, on 28 November, Sweden raised the issue again. This time, it has made an official request to Beijing to cooperate in investigating the incident. According to Kristersson, this formal request or demand ” expresses our determination to conduct a search of the vessel to find out what happened.” It is also worth noting that opinions on the desirability of cutting undersea cables by a Chinese vessel are divided among European intelligence agencies analyzing this topic.
As for the position of the People’s Republic of China, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs found that the case was referred to three times during a press conference by Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning. On 26 November, when she was asked by an AFP reporter about the veracity of reports about the talks with Denmark, she replied that “China is in contact with the relevant parties, including Denmark, through diplomatic channels.” A day later, on November 27, this time a question was asked by a Reuters journalist about Sweden’s request that Yi Peng 3 return to Swedish waters for an investigation. Mao replied that ” China has unimpeded communication channels with relevant parties, including Sweden.” She added: ” China always advocates working with other countries to keep global undersea cables and other infrastructure safe and secure in accordance with international law.” On November 29, an AFP reporter asked about reports about Sweden’s official request to China to cooperate. A spokeswoman for the Chinese ministry responded with two sentences: “China stands ready to work with relevant countries to find out what happened. There is ongoing close communication between China and Sweden on this.”
Lithuania expels three Chinese diplomats from the country
At the end of November, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Lithuania issued a communiqué according to which three non-accredited employees of the Chinese embassy in Vilnius were considered persona non grata and thus with no right to stay in Lithuania. According to the ministry, such a decision was made on the basis of “information provided by the competent authorities and the incompatibility of the status and activities of the non-accredited staff with the provisions of the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations (1961), other principles and practices of international law and the laws of the Republic of Lithuania.” The Ministry also did not elaborate on the details of the entire incident. In such a situation, three employees of the Chinese embassy were given a period of one week to leave Lithuania. The Lithuanian Ministry of Foreign Affairs also hopes that “diplomatic relations between the countries will be based on the principles of reciprocity and parity, including in regard to the diplomatic representation of Lithuania in the People’s Republic of China.” It seems that tensions between Vilnius and Beijing will flare up again. Since 2021, Lithuanian-Chinese relations have been steadily deteriorating due to Taiwan’s opening of its diplomatic representation in Vilnius, which in a sense violates the principle of “one China”, which is fundamental for China in its relations with other countries. The expulsion of diplomats or embassy employees is most often associated with retaliatory and analogous actions, so in addition to threats and warnings from Beijing, such steps can also be expected.
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