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Apr 04
Africa and Middle East, Migrant crisis, Publications

Fleeing the Fire: Conflict and Migration as Two Aspects within the Climate Crisis in MENA

April 4, 2022

Key Points

  • The Climate Crisis will exacerbate the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and accelerate the displacement of millions of people.
  • Heightened temperatures and disruptive water supplies will exacerbate current aspects that drive regional insecurity and proliferate politically or economically driven conflicts.
  • This will further hurt the livelihood of many rural and agricultural communities, forcing them to leave for better environments and potentially develop into a migration crisis.

Introduction

In the previous article, the author has explored the impact the Climate Crisis has on the habitability of MENA, where the subjects of heightened temperatures, extreme weather events and water supply disruption have been outlined to have devastating effects on the infrastructure and agricultural output in many parts of the region. The increasing intensity of droughts and rainfall will result in an inability to grow crops, which in turn will lead to greater food and economic insecurity for many people in MENA.

This, in turn, leads to a greater chance of conflict breaking out between or within countries. With countries having lesser agricultural and economic output as a result of the changing climate, and workers in these sectors seeing less revenue, will deepen the social inequality between the demographics of a said country. In the face of their livelihoods being unsustainable, many will turn to violence to support themselves.[1] This can also be a vector for recruitment for terrorist organisations, which can promise various economic benefits in exchange for fighting for them, as observed by Islamic State in West Africa Province (ISWAP) in North Africa.[2] While the literature on the impact the Climate Crisis can have on conflict is not conclusive, it is indicative that this phenomenon plays the role of a catalyst at the very least.

Should a greater conflict arise, as a result, more people will be inevitably displaced as they seek to avoid being caught in a battlefield. People living in rural areas will have to leave their homes not only due to conflict, but also due to harsh conditions that will impede their quality of life or being unable to provide for themselves. The scale of the impact of the Climate Crisis can impact MENA in the next 30 years risks affecting the whole region, with the complex dynamics between environmental and anthropological threats risking causing a major humanitarian or migration crisis. People seeking better places to settle might look either into neighboring countries or towards Europe, further raising the prospect of a major crisis occurring.

“The Threat Multiplier”: Climate-induced conflict

Literature concerning the impact of climate change on the security of the MENA has not reached a consensus, with various studies refuting claims that the two are directly connected while others stating that climate phenomena can act as aggravating factors to the wider socio-economic and cultural contexts. A literature review in 2021 assesses that the research surrounding this topic encompasses a methodological approach focused on qualitative case studies coupled with more extensive use of geographically related risk analysis, combined with a comparative approach between the two.[3] However, it has become increasingly clear that while the Climate Crisis, both within and beyond MENA, may not momentarily be the chiefly reason for conflict in the region concerned, it can be traced as one of the factors that escalates the grievances which can lead to further violence. It is also argued that the poorer Arab states would be more affected by the environmentally related impacts of the Climate Crisis, for reasons of the increasing competitiveness over the control of water to having less available funds to address the impacts of institutional mismanagement (including over-extraction of ground water, causing weaker evapotranspiration).[4] This means it will be more difficult for areas to cool off and an article from 2015 argues that, for every 1C increase in temperature, interpersonal conflicts may increase by 2.4% and intergroup conflicts by 11.3%.[5]

The Climate Crisis will bring upon a disruption of the supply of water in the region, a necessary resource for the vital agricultural sector of many states due to aspects like irrigation. This is especially true in rural communities within said countries, which are often more exposed to the impact of the Climate Crisis and thus forcing them to either adapt to the situation or be forced to leave their homes.

In North Africa, a study concerning the impact of the diminishing Lake Chad on the local communities resulted in less irrigation water, pastoral quality, or smaller fishing yields, which in turn exacerbates the socio-economical woes they were facing before, whereas now more members of these communities struggle to attain the required income to provide for their wellbeing and thus resort to crime more often.[6] The Darfur Conflict, titled as the “first climate change war” by some experts,[7] increased in intensity as a result of mass famine, lack of resources for communities to sustain themselves, and the following mass exodus that caused deep social conflicts that escalated to violence.[8] Despite it having a complex network of causes, environmental causes are perceived as culprits.[9] Seasonal movements of pastors can also be affected by the Climate Crisis, where transhumant trends means moving towards sedentary farmers which will damage their crops, including during harvest season; creating further grievances between the two groups.[10] This is further backed by another study that found a negative impact on real GDP per capita over weather changes, with remittances – which are important for absorbing macroeconomic impacts – being affected as well.[11] The relation between climate and conflict was also observed in Kenya and Ethiopia, where precipitation was seen to have a negative correlation in regard to crime or use of violence.[12]

The Middle East is no exception either, facing intensifying issues of overheating, water, and land alike. The war in Libya left many with very small windows of opportunity to light up their homes or refrigerate food, but also to air condition their households in the face of scorching heat as access to oil fields remains restricted by militia.[13] Libyans have no effective way to cool their homes in the face of a severe heatwave, affecting not only the livelihood of adults but also the education of their children; some prefer to have their power cut in the afternoon so they can sleep with the air conditioner on at night.[14] Not only have there been many examples of militias and armed groups controlling various oil fields, but in many examples the profit made from oil is not trickled down appropriately, leaving many areas impoverished.[15] This can will lead to more public unrest or force others to join militias, with the impacts of the Climate Crisis only intensifying the conditions. The Islamic State’s control over land until 2015 has also observed a different approach to land management, such as changing the intensity of agricultural operations, and putting a greater emphasis on its importance for revenue or appeasing the local population,[16] signaling the possible dynamics of conflict and control over fertile land in the future as a resource for sustainability as desertification occurs.

Migration in the Future

Thus, the Climate Crisis worsens the insecurity in MENA by, at the very least, intensifying the grievances already emplaced from socio-political and economical factors. Migration can be perceived as a coping or adaptation strategy in the face of increasing danger to one’s lifestyle, where the local political or economic situation can push others to leave their homes, as well as being nudged by climate change.[17] The MENA region is argued to be particularly affected by climate change in the future, and it is a region that is estimated to double its population growth by 2050, according to UNICEF.[18] Coincidentally, 2050 is also the year frequently mentioned when arguing that the Middle East has unliveable regions under current climatic trends.[19]

Many more will therefore be subjected to the harsh, future environment and will face the question of leaving for the sake of their livelihoods or their children’s.[20] This can cause a humanitarian crisis and a child rights crisis,[21] with lack of stable access to water, education, food, and more affecting the wellbeing of many displaced people. The number of internally displaced people will rise as more will search for better land, move into urban environments, or cross into other MENA countries such as Jordan or Lebanon, which still hold over 1.5 million (or 26.5% of the externally displaced) refugees from the Syrian civil war.[22] Countries already strained by a refugee crisis will only see further instability in the face of arising numbers from climate-induced migration.

Another route can lead into Europe via Turkey or the Mediterranean as it happened during the migration crisis of 2016 following the Syrian Civil War, potentially destabilising the security on the continent further.[23] Turkey holds over 3.7 million refugees from the war, or 65.8%, and thus may be even more affected.[24] This is not simply due to the fact that the continent offers a better climatic and potentially economic environment for incoming migrants, but was also because of the migration trends during the previous migration crisis. In this respect, the European Union will have to face the question of how to deal with the increasing migration in the coming years or decades.

The EU has developed a cooperation framework with neighbouring states, including south of the Mediterranean, in various policy areas including migration: the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP).[25] However, the EU does not appear too keen on a policy to accept a steady flow of migrants as much as it wants their management to be done at a distance. This framework is part of an effort to establish resilience-building in member states, which will help manage incoming migration just outside the continent and in the neighbouring region.[26] This became increasingly necessary due to the contradictory strategy it had in 2015, and thus made the Union export migration management to proxy states such as reaching concessions with Turkey in exchange for helping to manage EU borders.[27] Furthermore, situations where climate-induced migrants enter ungoverned areas can result in accelerated flows and the spread of “smooth space”: a post-structuralist concept where danger (from organised crime, militias or non-military sources) can circulate freely in an area; with the presentation of this issue in European media leading to the promotion of reinforcing borders more and securitising the migrants.[28] A comparative study concerning the coverage of the 2016 migration crisis between mostly western European and African media – albeit with limited coverage of the latter’s – discovered that European coverage focused on domestic issues more than on the cause.[29] These elements, and potentially more, remain ongoing challenges for Europe, especially considering the prospect of another migration crisis potentially coming to its shores. In this regard, one might consider that climate induced migration will revive older narratives of far-right governments seeking to demonise migrants for domestic political gains.

Conclusion

The Climate Crisis is, at least for now, not a kickstarter of migration but an aggravating factor together with other elements that force many to leave their homes. Increasing droughts and lack of water can force many people, especially in the rural communities, to leave their lives behind as they cannot sustain their agricultural lifestyle to support themselves. This can lead to a heightened danger of conflict, as battles for water and fertile land can intensify as they become scarcer in MENA. The resulting humanitarian crisis that will follow, where many people risk becoming internally or externally displaced, will be a topic of even greater urgency for the UN. Perhaps, albeit more cynically, it will become an impetus to act with more urgency for MENA states or neighbouring continents, who will witness the flow of immigrants moving towards their borders and triggering further political instability. Yet the fact remains that the intensification of the Climate Crisis will only the present issues worse, and without greater action from the world, not only will this phenomenon become an issue, but also an issue demanding extremely costly solutions, or simply one that will do too little, too late and leave the world to deal with the consequences of its earlier inaction.

Recommendations

  • In order to prepare the necessary legal framework to deal with the coming migration, an expansion of the UN 1951 Refugee Convention is required and must go beyond the limitations of identifying refugees only as people fleeing “persecution”. It must include clauses that tackle the climate-related threats which can force such people to flee. This should be considered also as a step to deal with economic migration from those affected by the Climate Crisis.
  • Resilience-building operations within the ENP must also include support for building climate-resistant infrastructure meant to answer the arising challenges that include extreme temperature or water supply disruptions. Further support should be given to neighbouring states towards tackling organised crime and smuggling targeting vulnerable migrants.
  • The securitisation and politicisation of migration, in Europe and beyond, must be tackled to avoid the exploitation of populist or far-right movements to allow them to gain further public exposure and political power. Furthermore, avoiding securitisation is necessary as part of preventing the mistreatment of migrants and worsening an accompanying humanitarian crisis.
  • Conflict resolution efforts must adjust to the possibility of dealing with an increase in resource-focused wars, alongside ones that were started from political origins.

Bibliography

Abouyoub Y., (2011) “Climate: The Forgotten Culprit. The Ecological Dimension of the Darfur Conflict”, Race, Gender and Class, 19:1/2. p. 150-172, Available at: http://www.jstor.org/stable/43496864

Asharq Al-Awsat, “Fuel Shortage Crisis Deepens Sufferings of Cities Southern Libya”, Asharq Al-Awsat, 17 March 2020, Available at: https://english.aawsat.com//home/article/2184721/fuel-shortage-crisis-deepens-sufferings-cities-southern-libya

Berlingozzi L., Stoddard E., (2020) “Assessing Misaligned Counterinsurgency Practice in Niger and Nigeria”, The International Spectator, 55:4, p.37-53, Available at: https://doi.org/10.1080/03932729.2020.1833472 

Burke M., et. al., (2015), “Climate and Conflict”, Annual review of economics, 7:1, p.577-617, Available at: https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/pdf/10.1146/annurev-economics-080614-115430

Dahan N., “Deadly heatwave and 14-hour power cuts leave Libyans on the edge”, Middle East Eye, 15 August 2018, Available at: https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/deadly-heatwave-and-14-hour-power-cuts-leave-libyans-edge

De Sherbinin A., “Climate Impacts as Drivers of Migration”, Migration Institute Policy, 23 October 2020, Available at: https://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/climate-impacts-drivers-migration

Easton T., et.al., (2019) “Conflict Economies in the Middle East and North Africa”, London: Chatham House, Available at: https://www.chathamhouse.org/2019/06/conflict-economies-middle-east-and-north-africa

Eklund L., et al., (2017) “How conflict affects land use: agricultural activity in areas seized by the Islamic State”, Environmental Research Letters, 12:5, Available at: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa673a

Fakhoury T., (2021) “The external dimension of EU migration policy as region-building? Refugee cooperation as contentious politics, Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, Available at: https://doi.org/10.1080/1369183X.2021.1972568

Fengler S., et. al., (2020), “Covering Migration—in Africa and Europe: Results from a Comparative Analysis of 11 Countries,” Journalism Practice, 16:1, p. 140-160, Available at: https://doi.org/10.1080/17512786.2020.1792333

Habib H., (2022) “Climate change, macroeconomic sensitivity and the response of remittances to the North African countries: a panel VAR analyse”, International Journal of Sustainable Development & World Ecology, Available at: https://doi.org/10.1080/13504509.2022.2028688

Hakim S. (2011), “The Role of Climate Change in the Darfur Crisis”, In: Leal Filho W. (eds) “The Economic, Social and Political Elements of Climate Change. Climate Change Management.”, (Springer, Berlin: Heidelberg), Available at: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-14776-0_48

Mason, M. (2019), “Climate Change and Conflict in the Middle East.”, International Journal of Middle East Studies, 51:4, 626-628, Available at: https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020743819000709

Mekelberg Y., Fanning K., “The Coming Climate Migration Crisis in the Middle East and North Africa”, Newlines Institute, 7 December 2021, Available at: https://newlinesinstitute.org/climate-migration/the-coming-climate-migration-crisis-in-the-middle-east-and-north-africa/

Nunn N., McGuirk E., “How climate shocks trigger inter-group conflicts: Evidence from Africa’s transhumant pastoralists”, VoxDev, 30 April 2021, Available at: https://voxdev.org/topic/energy-environment/how-climate-shocks-trigger-inter-group-conflicts-evidence-africa-s-seasonal-migrants

Okpara, U.T., et. al., (2016) “Lake drying and livelihood dynamics in Lake Chad: Unravelling the mechanisms, contexts and responses.”, Ambio, 45, p.781–795, Available at: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-016-0805-6

Pal S. J., Eltahir E.A.B., (2016), “Future temperature in southwest Asia projected to exceed a threshold for human adaptability”, Nature Climate Change, 6, p. 197-200, Available at: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2833

Panebianco S., (2020) “The EU and migration in the Mediterranean: EU borders’ control by proxy”, Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, Available at: https://doi.org/10.1080/1369183X.2020.1851468

Popovski V., “Foresight Africa viewpoint: Does climate change cause conflict?”, Brookings Institute, 20 January 2017, Availeble at: https://www.brookings.edu/blog/africa-in-focus/2017/01/20/does-climate-change-cause-conflict/

Rothe D., Methmann C., (2014), “Tracing the spectre that haunts Europe: the visual construction of climate-induced migration in the MENA region”, Critical Studies on Security, 2:2, p.162-179, Available at: https://doi.org/10.1080/21624887.2014.909226

Ryan D., “Stanford-led study investigates how much climate change affects the risk of armed conflict”, Standford News, 19 June 2019, Available at: https://news.stanford.edu/2019/06/12/climate-change-cause-armed-conflict/

Sharifi A., et. al., (2021), “Climate-induced stressors to peace: a review of recent literature”, Environmental Research Letters, 16:7, Available at: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abfc08

Timofte, C., “Scorching Fate: The Impact of the Climate Crisis on Liveability in the Middle East and North Africa”, Institute of New Europe, January 2022, Available at: https://ine.org.pl/en/scorching-fate-the-impact-of-the-climate-crisis-on-liveability-in-the-middle-east-and-north-africa/

United Nations Children’s Fund, (2019) “MENA Generation 2030: Investing in children and youth today to secure a prosperous region tomorrow”, New York: United Nations Children’s Fund, Available at: https://data.unicef.org/resources/middle-east-north-africa-generation-2030/

United Nations Children’s Fund, (2021) “The Climate Crisis is a Child Rights Crisis:: Introducing the Children’s Climate Risk Index.”, New York: United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF), Available at: https://www.unicef.org/media/105376/file/UNICEF-climate-crisis-child-rights-crisis.pdf

United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, (2021), “Climate Change And Displacement In MENA”, Geneva: United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, Available at: https://www.unhcr.org/6141fa9d4.pdf

United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, “Syria Regional Refugee Response Data”, UNHCR, 2022, Available at: https://www.unhcr.org/6141fa9d4.pdf https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/syria

Van Weezel, S. (2019). “On climate and conflict: Precipitation decline and communal conflict in Ethiopia and Kenya”, Journal of Peace Research, 56:4, p.514–528. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343319826409

Wierich A., (2021),“Solving Problems Where They Are Made? The European Neighbourhood Policy and Its Effects on the Context of Other Migration-Related Policies of the European Union”, Perspectives on European Politics and Society, 12:3, Available at: https://doi.org/10.1080/15705854.2011.596304


[1] Ryan D., “Stanford-led study investigates how much climate change affects the risk of armed conflict”, Standford News, 19 June 2019, Available at: https://news.stanford.edu/2019/06/12/climate-change-cause-armed-conflict/

[2] Berlingozzi L., Stoddard E., (2020) “Assessing Misaligned Counterinsurgency Practice in Niger and Nigeria”, The International Spectator, 55:4, p.37-53, Available at: https://doi.org/10.1080/03932729.2020.1833472 

[3] Sharifi A., et. al., (2021), “Climate-induced stressors to peace: a review of recent literature”, Environmental Research Letters, 16:7, Available at: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abfc08

[4] Mason, M. (2019), “Climate Change and Conflict in the Middle East.”, International Journal of Middle East Studies, 51:4, 626-628, Available at: https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020743819000709

[5] Burke M., et. al., (2015), “Climate and Conflict”, Annual review of economics, 7:1, p.577-617, Available at: https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/pdf/10.1146/annurev-economics-080614-115430

[6] Okpara, U.T., et. al., (2016) “Lake drying and livelihood dynamics in Lake Chad: Unravelling the mechanisms, contexts and responses.”, Ambio, 45, p.781–795, Available at: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-016-0805-6

[7] Popovski V., “Foresight Africa viewpoint: Does climate change cause conflict?”, BrookingsInstitute, 20 January 2017, Availeble at: https://www.brookings.edu/blog/africa-in-focus/2017/01/20/does-climate-change-cause-conflict/

[8] Hakim S. (2011), “The Role of Climate Change in the Darfur Crisis”, In: Leal Filho W. (eds) “The Economic, Social and Political Elements of Climate Change. Climate Change Management.”, (Springer, Berlin: Heidelberg), Available at: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-14776-0_48

[9] Abouyoub Y., (2011) “Climate: The Forgotten Culprit. The Ecological Dimension of the Darfur Conflict”, Race, Gender and Class, 19:1/2. p. 150-172, Available at: http://www.jstor.org/stable/43496864

[10] Nunn N., McGuirk E., “How climate shocks trigger inter-group conflicts: Evidence from Africa’s transhumant pastoralists”, VoxDev, 30 April 2021, Available at: https://voxdev.org/topic/energy-environment/how-climate-shocks-trigger-inter-group-conflicts-evidence-africa-s-seasonal-migrants

[11] Habib H., (2022) “Climate change, macroeconomic sensitivity and the response of remittances to the North African countries: a panel VAR analyse”, International Journal of Sustainable Development & World Ecology, Available at: https://doi.org/10.1080/13504509.2022.2028688

[12] Van Weezel, S. (2019). “On climate and conflict: Precipitation decline and communal conflict in Ethiopia and Kenya”, Journal of Peace Research, 56:4, p.514–528. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343319826409

[13] Asharq Al-Awsat, “Fuel Shortage Crisis Deepens Sufferings of Cities Southern Libya”, Asharq Al-Awsat, 17 March 2020, Available at: https://english.aawsat.com//home/article/2184721/fuel-shortage-crisis-deepens-sufferings-cities-southern-libya

[14] Dahan N., “Deadly heatwave and 14-hour power cuts leave Libyans on the edge”, Middle East Eye, 15 August 2018, Available at: https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/deadly-heatwave-and-14-hour-power-cuts-leave-libyans-edge

[15] Easton T., et.al., (2019) “Conflict Economies in the Middle East and North Africa”, London: Chatham House, Available at: https://www.chathamhouse.org/2019/06/conflict-economies-middle-east-and-north-africa

[16] Eklund L., et al., (2017) “How conflict affects land use: agricultural activity in areas seized by the Islamic State”, Environmental Research Letters, 12:5, Available at: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa673a

[17] De Sherbinin A., “Climate Impacts as Drivers of Migration”, Migration Institute Policy, 23 October 2020, Available at: https://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/climate-impacts-drivers-migration

[18] United Nations Children’s Fund, (2019) “MENA Generation 2030: Investing in children and youth today to secure a prosperous region tomorrow”, New York: United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF), Available at: https://data.unicef.org/resources/middle-east-north-africa-generation-2030/

[19] Pal S. J., Eltahir E.A.B., (2016), “Future temperature in southwest Asia projected to exceed a threshold for human adaptability”, Nature Climate Change, 6,p. 197-200, Available at: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2833

[20] United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, (2021), “Climate Change And Displacement In MENA”, Geneva: United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNCHR), Available at: https://www.unhcr.org/6141fa9d4.pdf

[21] United Nations Children’s Fund, (2021) “The Climate Crisis is a Child Rights Crisis:: Introducing the Children’s Climate Risk Index.”, New York: United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF), Available at: https://www.unicef.org/media/105376/file/UNICEF-climate-crisis-child-rights-crisis.pdf

[22] United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, “Syria Regional Refugee Response Data”, UNHCR, 2022, Available at: https://www.unhcr.org/6141fa9d4.pdf https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/syria

[23] Mekelberg Y., Fanning K., “The Coming Climate Migration Crisis in the Middle East and North Africa”, Newlines Institute, 7 December 2021, Available at: https://newlinesinstitute.org/climate-migration/the-coming-climate-migration-crisis-in-the-middle-east-and-north-africa/

[24] UNHCR, Syria Regional Refugee Data Response, Online

[25] Wierich A., (2021),“Solving Problems Where They Are Made? The European Neighbourhood Policy and Its Effects on the Context of Other Migration-Related Policies of the European Union”, Perspectives on European Politics and Society, 12:3, Available at: https://doi.org/10.1080/15705854.2011.596304

[26] Fakhoury T., (2021) “The external dimension of EU migration policy as region-building? Refugee cooperation as contentious politics, Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, Available at: https://doi.org/10.1080/1369183X.2021.1972568

[27] Panebianco S., (2020) “The EU and migration in the Mediterranean: EU borders’ control by proxy”, Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, Available at: https://doi.org/10.1080/1369183X.2020.1851468

[28] Rothe D., Methmann C., (2014), “Tracing the spectre that haunts Europe: the visual construction of climate-induced migration in the MENA region”, Critical Studies on Security, 2:2, p.162-179, Available at: https://doi.org/10.1080/21624887.2014.909226

[29] Fengler S., et. al., (2020), “Covering Migration—in Africa and Europe: Results from a Comparative Analysis of 11 Countries,” Journalism Practice, 16:1, p. 140-160, Available at: https://doi.org/10.1080/17512786.2020.1792333

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Cosmin Timofte. Graduate student of Politics and Intelligence Studies at Aberystwyth University and International Security at University of Warwick. Former exchange student in the United States. Participant in an analytical project of the media narratives around Brexit in the United Kingdom and Romania. His main research interests are Middle Eastern armed conflicts, disinformation and intelligence.
Program Europa tworzą:

Marcin Chruściel

Dyrektor programu. Absolwent studiów doktoranckich z zakresu nauk o polityce na Uniwersytecie Wrocławskim, magister stosunków międzynarodowych i europeistyki Uniwersytetu Jagiellońskiego. Prezes Zarządu Instytutu Nowej Europy.

dr Artur Bartoszewicz

Przewodniczący Rady Programowej Instytutu Nowej Europy. Doktor nauk ekonomicznych Szkoły Głównej Handlowej. Ekspert w dziedzinie polityki publicznej, w tym m. in. strategii państwa i gospodarki.

Michał Banasiak

Specjalizuje się w relacjach sportu i polityki. Autor analiz, komentarzy i wywiadów z zakresu dyplomacji sportowej i polityki międzynarodowej. Były dziennikarz Polsat News i wysłannik redakcji zagranicznej Telewizji Polskiej.

Maciej Pawłowski

Ekspert ds. migracji, gospodarki i polityki państw basenu Morza Śródziemnego. W latach 2018-2020 Analityk PISM ds. Południowej Europy. Autor publikacji w polskiej i zagranicznej prasie na temat Hiszpanii, Włoch, Grecji, Egiptu i państw Magrebu. Od września 2020 r. mieszka w północnej Afryce (Egipt, Algieria).

Jędrzej Błaszczak

Absolwent studiów prawniczych Uniwersytetu Śląskiego w Katowicach. Jego zainteresowania badawcze koncentrują się na Inicjatywie Trójmorza i polityce w Bułgarii. Doświadczenie zdobywał w European Foundation of Human Rights w Wilnie, Center for the Study of Democracy w Sofii i polskich placówkach dyplomatycznych w Teheranie i Tbilisi.

Program Bezpieczeństwo tworzą:

dr Aleksander Olech

Dyrektor programu. Wykładowca na Baltic Defence College, absolwent Europejskiej Akademii Dyplomacji oraz Akademii Sztuki Wojennej. Jego główne zainteresowania badawcze to terroryzm, bezpieczeństwo w Europie Środkowo-Wschodniej oraz rola NATO i UE w środowisku zagrożeń hybrydowych.

dr Agnieszka Rogozińska

Członek Rady Programowej Instytutu Nowej Europy. Doktor nauk społecznych w dyscyplinie nauki o polityce. Zainteresowania badawcze koncentruje na problematyce bezpieczeństwa euroatlantyckiego, instytucjonalnym wymiarze bezpieczeństwa i współczesnych zagrożeniach.

Aleksy Borówka

Doktorant na Wydziale Nauk Społecznych Uniwersytetu Wrocławskiego, Przewodniczący Krajowej Reprezentacji Doktorantów w kadencji 2020. Autor kilkunastu prac naukowych, poświęconych naukom o bezpieczeństwie, naukom o polityce i administracji oraz stosunkom międzynarodowym. Laureat I, II oraz III Międzynarodowej Olimpiady Geopolitycznej.

Karolina Siekierka

Absolwentka Uniwersytetu Warszawskiego na kierunku stosunki międzynarodowe, specjalizacji Bezpieczeństwo i Studia Strategiczne. Jej zainteresowania badawcze obejmują politykę zagraniczną i wewnętrzną Francji, prawa człowieka oraz konflikty zbrojne.

Stanisław Waszczykowski

Podoficer rezerwy, student studiów magisterskich na kierunku Bezpieczeństwo Międzynarodowe i Dyplomacja na Akademii Sztuki Wojennej, były praktykant w BBN. Jego zainteresowania badawcze obejmują m.in. operacje pokojowe ONZ oraz bezpieczeństwo Ukrainy.

Leon Pińczak

Student studiów drugiego stopnia na Uniwersytecie Warszawskim na kierunku stosunki międzynarodowe. Dziennikarz polskojęzycznej redakcji Biełsatu. Zawodowo zajmuje się obszarem postsowieckim, rosyjską polityką wewnętrzną i doktrynami FR. Biegle włada językiem rosyjskim.

Program Indo-Pacyfik tworzą:

Łukasz Kobierski

Dyrektor programu. Współzałożyciel INE oraz prezes zarządu w latach 2019-2021. Stypendysta szkoleń z zakresu bezpieczeństwa na Daniel Morgan Graduate School of National Security w Waszyngtonie, ekspert od stosunków międzynarodowych. Absolwent Uniwersytetu Warszawskiego oraz Uniwersytetu Mikołaja Kopernika. Wiceprezes Zarządu INE.

dr Joanna Siekiera

Prawnik międzynarodowy, doktor nauk społecznych, adiunkt na Wydziale Prawa Uniwersytetu w Bergen w Norwegii. Była stypendystką rządu Nowej Zelandii na Uniwersytecie Victorii w Wellington, niemieckiego Institute of Cultural Diplomacy, a także francuskiego Institut de relations internationales et stratégiques.

Paweł Paszak

Absolwent stosunków międzynarodowych (spec. Wschodnioazjatycka) na Uniwersytecie Warszawskim oraz stypendysta University of Kent (W. Brytania) i Hainan University (ChRL). Doktorant UW i Akademii Sztuki Wojennej. Jego zainteresowania badawcze obejmują politykę zagraniczną ChRL oraz strategiczną rywalizację Chiny-USA.

Jakub Graca

Magister stosunków międzynarodowych na Uniwersytecie Jagiellońskim; studiował także filologię orientalną (specjalność: arabistyka). Analityk Centrum Inicjatyw Międzynarodowych (Warszawa) oraz Instytutu Nowej Europy. Zainteresowania badawcze: Stany Zjednoczone (z naciskiem na politykę zagraniczną), relacje transatlantyckie.

Patryk Szczotka

Absolwent filologii dalekowschodniej ze specjalnością chińską na Uniwersytecie Wrocławskim oraz student kierunku double degree China and International Relations na Aalborg University oraz University of International Relations (国际关系学院) w Pekinie. Jego zainteresowania naukowe to relacje polityczne i gospodarcze UE-ChRL oraz dyplomacja.

The programme's team:

Marcin Chruściel

Programme director. Graduate of PhD studies in Political Science at the University of Wroclaw and Master studies in International Relations at the Jagiellonian University in Krakow. President of the Management Board at the Institute of New Europe.

PhD Artur Bartoszewicz

Chairman of the Institute's Programme Board. Doctor of Economic Sciences at the SGH Warsaw School of Economics. Expert in the field of public policy, including state and economic strategies. Expert at the National Centre for Research and Development and the Digital Poland Projects Centre.

Michał Banasiak

He specializes in relationship of sports and politics. Author of analysis, comments and interviews in the field of sports diplomacy and international politics. Former Polsat News and Polish Television’s foreign desk journalist.

Maciej Pawłowski

Expert on migration, economics and politics of Mediterranean countries. In the period of 2018-2020 PISM Analyst on Southern Europe. Author of various articles in Polish and foreign press about Spain, Italy, Greece, Egypt and Maghreb countries. Since September 2020 lives in North Africa (Egypt, Algeria).

Jędrzej Błaszczak

Graduate of Law at the University of Silesia. His research interests focus on the Three Seas Initiative and politics in Bulgaria. He acquired experience at the European Foundation of Human Rights in Vilnius, the Center for the Study of Democracy in Sofia, and in Polish embassies in Tehran and Tbilisi.

PhD Aleksander Olech

Programme director. Visiting lecturer at the Baltic Defence College, graduate of the European Academy of Diplomacy and War Studies University. His main research interests include terrorism, international cooperation for security in Eastern Europe and the role of NATO and the EU with regard to hybrid threats.

PhD Agnieszka Rogozińska

Member of the Institute's Programme Board. Doctor of Social Sciences in the discipline of Political Science. Editorial secretary of the academic journals "Politics & Security" and "Independence: journal devoted to Poland's recent history". Her research interests focus on security issues.

Aleksy Borówka

PhD candidate at the Faculty of Social Sciences in the University of Wroclaw, the President of the Polish National Associations of PhD Candidates in 2020. The author of dozen of scientific papers, concerning security studies, political science, administration, international relations. Laureate of the I, II and III International Geopolitical Olympiad.

Karolina Siekierka

Graduate of International Relations specializing in Security and Strategic Studies at University of Warsaw. Erasmus student at the Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1) and the Institut d’Etudes Politique de Paris (Sciences Po Paris). Her research areas include human rights, climate change and armed conflicts.

Stanisław Waszczykowski

Reserve non-commissioned officer. Master's degree student in International Security and Diplomacy at the War Studies University in Warsaw, former trainee at the National Security Bureau. His research interests include issues related to UN peacekeeping operations and the security of Ukraine.

Leon Pińczak

A second-degree student at the University of Warsaw, majoring in international relations. A journalist of the Polish language edition of Belsat. Interested in the post-Soviet area, with a particular focus on Russian internal politics and Russian doctrines - foreign, defense and information-cybernetic.

Łukasz Kobierski

Programme director. Deputy President of the Management Board. Scholarship holder at the Daniel Morgan Graduate School of National Security in Washington and an expert in the field of international relations. Graduate of the University of Warsaw and the Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń

PhD Joanna Siekiera

International lawyer, Doctor of social sciences, postdoctor at the Faculty of Law, University of Bergen, Norway. She was a scholarship holder of the New Zealand government at the Victoria University of Wellington, Institute of Cultural Diplomacy in Germany, Institut de relations internationales et stratégiques in France.

Paweł Paszak

Graduate of International Relations (specialisation in East Asian Studies) from the University of Warsaw and scholarship holder at the University of Kent (UK) and Hainan University (China). PhD candidate at the University of Warsaw and the War Studies University. His research areas include the foreign policy of China and the strategic rivalry between China and the US in the Indo-Pacific.

Jakub Graca

Master of International Relations at the Jagiellonian University in Krakow. He also studied Arabic therein. An analyst at the Center for International Initiatives (Warsaw) and the Institute of New Europe. Research interests: United States (mainly foreign policy), transatlantic relations.

Patryk Szczotka

A graduate of Far Eastern Philology with a specialization in China Studies at the University of Wroclaw and a student of a double degree “China and International Relations” at Aalborg University and University of International Relations (国际关系学院) in Beijing. His research interests include EU-China political and economic relations, as well as diplomacy.

Three Seas Think Tanks Hub is a platform of cooperation among different think tanks based in 3SI member countries. Their common goal is to strengthen public debate and understanding of the Three Seas region seen from the political, economic and security perspective. The project aims at exchanging ideas, research and publications on the region’s potential and challenges.

Members

The Baltic Security Foundation (Latvia)

The BSF promotes the security and defense of the Baltic Sea region. It gathers security experts from the region and beyond, provides a platform for discussion and research, promotes solutions that lead to stronger regional security in the military and other areas.

The Institute for Politics and Society (Czech Republic)

The Institute analyses important economic, political, and social areas that affect today’s society. The mission of the Institute is to cultivate the Czech political and public sphere through professional and open discussion.

Nézöpont Institute (Hungary)

The Institute aims at improving Hungarian public life and public discourse by providing real data, facts and opinions based on those. Its primary focus points are Hungarian youth, media policy and Central European cooperation.

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (Austria)

The wiiw is one of the principal centres for research on Central, East and Southeast Europe with 50 years of experience. Over the years, the Institute has broadened its expertise, increasing its regional coverage – to European integration, the countries of Wider Europe and selected issues of the global economy.

The International Institute for Peace (Austria)

The Institute strives to address the most topical issues of the day and promote dialogue, public engagement, and a common understanding to ensure a holistic approach to conflict resolution and a durable peace. The IIP functions as a platform to promote peace and non-violent conflict resolution across the world.

The Institute for Regional and International Studies (Bulgaria)

The IRIS initiates, develops and implements civic strategies for democratic politics at the national, regional and international level. The Institute promotes the values of democracy, civil society, freedom and respect for law and assists the process of deepening Bulgarian integration in NATO and the EU.

The European Institute of Romania

EIR is a public institution whose mission is to provide expertise in the field of European Affairs to the public administration, the business community, the social partners and the civil society. EIR’s activity is focused on four key domains: research, training, communication, translation of the EHRC case-law.

The Institute of New Europe (Poland)

The Institute is an advisory and analytical non-governmental organisation active in the fields of international politics, international security and economics. The Institute supports policy-makers by providing them with expert opinions, as well as creating a platform for academics, publicists, and commentators to exchange ideas.

YouTube

Najnowsze publikacje

  • Marcin Chruściel speaks for CNN Prima NEWS on the Three Seas Initiative following President Pavel’s visit to Warsaw [Video]
    by Marcin Chruściel
    March 20, 2023
  • The Impact of US CHIPS and Science Act on the Trilateral Relationship Between the US, China and Taiwan
    by Claire Lin
    March 7, 2023
  • The Czech „awakening” towards the Three Seas Initiative – conclusions from the study visit to Prague
    by Marcin Chruściel
    March 2, 2023
  • The economy in the times of war. One year after the Russian invasion
    by Prof. Liubov V. Zharova
    February 16, 2023
  • Watching the 20th CCP National Party Congress from Taipei
    by Kuan-Ting Chen
    January 26, 2023

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