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Nov 24
Africa and Middle East, Domestic policy, Elections, Europe, France, Publications

French elections and the problem of migration. A forecast for 2022

November 24, 2021
French elections and the problem of migration. A forecast for 2022Download

Key points:

– Despite the reduction in the influx of non-EU migrants to member states following the 2015 crisis, France is still being targeted as a major migration destination;

– it is currently estimated that the number of irregular migrants in France reaches almost 600,000 people;

– Emmanuel Macron is not afraid to criticise Germany, Italy and Spain for their ineffective migration policies and irresponsibility, i.e. opening and closing borders without an established plan;

– E. Macron’s decision to accept at least some Afghans was a critical step towards gaining support from left-wing circles;

– at the end of the French president’s five-year term, the key issue will not be health, security or the economy, but the recurring migration question.

Introduction

The French Republic is facing a problem of both internal and external migration, which has been continuously present since the end of the Second World War. There are cultural, social, religious, educational, economic, and security challenges on the state level. France’s international engagement, which is closely related to migration, mainly includes military missions, economic cooperation with former colonies, and investments in Africa. Every president of the Fifth Republic has stressed the need to create conditions for the regulated reception of migrants in the country, but to date, none has been able to propose a detailed, long-term, and effective strategy. With nearly six months before the presidential election, Emmanuel Macron will have to present a plan of action in the face of another wave of asylum seekers.

France in figures

Until the mid-1970s, due to the need for labour resulting from the post-war period, immigrants coming to France were predominantly male. After 1974, the interest in labour migration declined in favour of family migration. Since then, there has been a significant increase in female representation within immigration flows, and in 2020, they represent 52% of immigrants, compared to 45% in 1946 and 44% in 1975. In particular, this trend is visible among immigrants from Africa (the Maghreb and sub-Saharan Africa). In addition, the qualifications and educational level of the incomers has also increased. In 1975, only 3% of immigrants had a university degree, while in 2020, this figure was up to 30%.

According to the figures for 2020, immigrants represent 12.7% of the population of the French Republic, and more than 1.7 million foreign-born individuals have been granted the status of French citizens by right of blood. Together with the current immigrants in the country (6.8 million), 8.5 million people living in France were born outside of the country.

Despite the reduction in the influx of non-EU nationals into member states, France is still being chosen as the primary destination for migration after the 2015 crisis. Between 2016 and 2020, on average, 100,000 people per year have sought asylum ( a record of 122,000 in 2018). Despite the high number of interested parties, each year, only 20,000 people were granted refugee status, 20,000 temporary residence permits, and the rest – representing the majority – remained in the country illegally. If apprehended, they were deported, but many settled permanently in ghettos and encampments. 

The issue of those without documents proving legal residence in France will pose a significant challenge not only to Mr. Macron’s electoral programme but to any politician running for office as president. Currently, it is estimated that the number of illegal migrants in France is nearly 600,000. Moreover, this number will increase since the ongoing pandemic has made travel much more difficult. However, there has been a gradual reduction in controls, for instance, on Belgium’s border, where there are more than 150 000 undocumented migrants.

Migrants from Afghanistan

At a conference in August following the withdrawal of US troops, French government spokesman Gabriel Attal announced that France would take in several thousand Afghans as it does every year. He stressed that Paris, led by President Macron, has supported refugees fleeing the war for years and will provide shelter to them again this year. Furthermore, he defended E. Macron, who, after the evacuation of American forces from the Middle East, spoke about the need of establishing an international initiative, distributing migrants in different countries, securing illegal migration routes, and protecting them from criminal groups posing a threat to Europe. These statements provoked an outcry from many left-wing oppositionists and several human rights associations in France. In addition, the president was criticised on social media and compared to the far-right Marine Le Pen. In response, the Elysée Palace issued a statement announcing the assistance arrangements for people arriving on French territory from Kabul. It remains true that France has recorded the highest number of Afghan refugees accepted in Europe over the past three years, with more than 50,000 currently in the country. As of 2020, 8,886 applications for protection (1st time, as it is possible to apply several times) were made by Afghans. 

For E. Macron, the Afghan migration issue will be the biggest challenge in the upcoming election campaign. On the one hand, in order to gain the support of the left-wing electorate, he needs to return to the same tone he kept between 2015 and 2017. At that time, the president maintained that refugees represent a new force for the state (labour, scientific), emphasising their unique qualifications and the fact that welcoming people in need is in line with French traditions. This fits in with his recent statements in which he indicated that France has always been a country of migration, helping others in crises. In this view, his main rival is Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who already has a plan for organising the reception of migrants not only in the country but also throughout the European Union. His position will be strong if he manages to win over the entire left-wing electorate. 

On the other hand, the incumbent president – whose first term expires in 2022 – is well aware that his biggest political rival remains Marine Le Pen and her far-right Rassemblement National party, which has built its popularity on a strong anti-immigration stance. In order to convince the electorate of the right, E. Macron points out that it is above all migrants who have obligations to the state and must respect its values and citizens.

International Affairs

Paris points out that on the issue of asylum and migration, the European Union must reform its policies to make them more effective and coherent. Furthermore, Emmanuel Macron is not afraid to criticise Germany, Italy, and Spain for their ineffective migration policies and irresponsibility – opening and closing borders without an agreed plan. In May this year, he highlighted that most eventually ended up in France of the half a million Syrians and Iraqis who arrived in Germany in 2015 and were not granted refugee status. He also stresses his pro-Europeanism, while pointing out the significance of international cooperation in the context of changes concerning migration law.

France, under E. Macron has been heavily involved in international military operations, expanding bases in French Guiana, the United Arab Emirates, Mali, and Senegal. Although the withdrawal of some soldiers from the Barkhane mission has met the expectations of the majority of his voters, the actual result – the proliferation of terrorist groups – means that France has lost control of the Sahel and suffered a defeat in the region, which could lead to another wave of terrorism on the territory of the Republic in the future.

Faced with the emerging challenges at the intersection of migration and terrorism, the French president has been careful throughout his term not to alienate followers of Islam. Although his actions have not been effective several times, as when he indicated that all mosques in the country should be inspected, he will eventually be able to count on their vote, for instance, in his confrontation with Marine Le Pen. Moreover, his recent talks with Iran and Iraq will be crucial in building a narrative of understanding the Islamic world and seeking understanding with the followers of this religion.

Conclusion

E. Macron’s decision to welcome at least some Afghans marked an extremely important step towards gaining support from left-wing circles. Moreover, referring to the intensification of aid to Africa – including support for the economy, in order to alleviate the crisis caused by Covid-19 – he signalled to centre-left voters that he still remembers about them. At the same time, the president will seek to maintain the support of anti-immigration movements, as he is sure to refer to the security and anti-Covid-19 laws passed during his term, stressing the need for increased controls on those coming into the country. Therefore, it seems that building a position based on balancing on the edges of views is the only option that E. Macron has. He cannot afford to pursue policies against terrorism, Islam, and migration, as he will not defeat M. Pen in this regard. He will gain the missing percentage points needed for re-election by maintaining at least partial endorsement from pro-asylum supporters. 

Due to the Covid-19 pandemic, hundreds of families from Africa and the Middle East have been unable to join their relatives in France, despite being allowed to do so. Nine NGOs, including the League of Human Rights, Amnesty International France, and ANAFÉ (fr. Association nationale d’assistance aux frontières pour les étrangers), filed a class-action lawsuit in the Council of State (fr. Conseil d’Etat) to question the failure of visas allowing family reunification to be issued. Although this has been going on for two years, E. Macron and his administration still have not resolved these issues. When the family reunification problem resurfaces again in 2022, it will be the last months of his term of office – from January to April – during the winter and the anticipated next wave of Covid-19 cases. This will require the incumbent president to make an important decision – whether to focus on the pandemic or to support migration processes. Considering the upcoming elections, the next move seems obvious, and in the public narrative, E. Macron will emphasise how crucial it is for him to welcome migrants – thus gaining approval in their eyes, but at the same time pointing to the priority, which is the health of citizens.

At the end of his five-year term, the pivotal issue will not be health, security, or economics, but the recurring theme of migration. The proposals presented by La République en Marche for the right and the extreme right are not enough for them, and linking the problem of extremism with the migration law is used to expose E. Macron’s solution to internal challenges. So far, the rhetorical engine of his electoral promises has been the exploitation of the distinctions between refugees, who must be taken in under legal obligations, versus economic migrants from Africa and the Middle East. The French President referred as always to the commitment of the whole of Europe and border protection, in a way shifting the individual responsibility of the state to other EU members. It seems that despite the current influx of people, he will try to maintain such rhetoric until the first round, scheduled for 10 April 2022, which almost certainly will allow him to stay in power.

A second term for Emmanuel Marcon is, therefore, to be expected. After the recent and rather successful meeting with President Andrzej Duda, one can hope that Poland will also engage in foreign policy between Warsaw and Paris. This is a necessary and wise move in the process of establishing independence from the Americans, who will become less and less involved in Europe, with their focus on China.

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Aleksander Olech, PhD. Visiting lecturer at the Baltic Defence College. Graduate of the European Academy of Diplomacy and War Studies University. He has undertaken research at several international institutions, among others, the Université Jean Moulin III in Lyon, the Institute of International Relations in Prague, the Institute for Peace Support and Conflict Management in Vienna, the NATO Energy Security Centre of Excellence in Vilnius, and the NATO Centre of Excellence Defence Against Terrorism in Ankara. Scholarship holder of the OSCE & UNODA Peace and Security Programme, the NATO 2030 Global Fellowship, and the Casimir Pulaski Foundation. His main research interests include terrorism, international cooperation for security in Eastern Europe and the role of NATO and the EU with regard to hybrid threats.
Program Europa tworzą:

Marcin Chruściel

Dyrektor programu. Absolwent studiów doktoranckich z zakresu nauk o polityce na Uniwersytecie Wrocławskim, magister stosunków międzynarodowych i europeistyki Uniwersytetu Jagiellońskiego. Prezes Zarządu Instytutu Nowej Europy.

dr Artur Bartoszewicz

Przewodniczący Rady Programowej Instytutu Nowej Europy. Doktor nauk ekonomicznych Szkoły Głównej Handlowej. Ekspert w dziedzinie polityki publicznej, w tym m. in. strategii państwa i gospodarki.

Michał Banasiak

Specjalizuje się w relacjach sportu i polityki. Autor analiz, komentarzy i wywiadów z zakresu dyplomacji sportowej i polityki międzynarodowej. Były dziennikarz Polsat News i wysłannik redakcji zagranicznej Telewizji Polskiej.

Maciej Pawłowski

Ekspert ds. migracji, gospodarki i polityki państw basenu Morza Śródziemnego. W latach 2018-2020 Analityk PISM ds. Południowej Europy. Autor publikacji w polskiej i zagranicznej prasie na temat Hiszpanii, Włoch, Grecji, Egiptu i państw Magrebu. Od września 2020 r. mieszka w północnej Afryce (Egipt, Algieria).

Jędrzej Błaszczak

Absolwent studiów prawniczych Uniwersytetu Śląskiego w Katowicach. Jego zainteresowania badawcze koncentrują się na Inicjatywie Trójmorza i polityce w Bułgarii. Doświadczenie zdobywał w European Foundation of Human Rights w Wilnie, Center for the Study of Democracy w Sofii i polskich placówkach dyplomatycznych w Teheranie i Tbilisi.

Program Bezpieczeństwo tworzą:

dr Aleksander Olech

Dyrektor programu. Wykładowca na Baltic Defence College, absolwent Europejskiej Akademii Dyplomacji oraz Akademii Sztuki Wojennej. Jego główne zainteresowania badawcze to terroryzm, bezpieczeństwo w Europie Środkowo-Wschodniej oraz rola NATO i UE w środowisku zagrożeń hybrydowych.

dr Agnieszka Rogozińska

Członek Rady Programowej Instytutu Nowej Europy. Doktor nauk społecznych w dyscyplinie nauki o polityce. Zainteresowania badawcze koncentruje na problematyce bezpieczeństwa euroatlantyckiego, instytucjonalnym wymiarze bezpieczeństwa i współczesnych zagrożeniach.

Aleksy Borówka

Doktorant na Wydziale Nauk Społecznych Uniwersytetu Wrocławskiego, Przewodniczący Krajowej Reprezentacji Doktorantów w kadencji 2020. Autor kilkunastu prac naukowych, poświęconych naukom o bezpieczeństwie, naukom o polityce i administracji oraz stosunkom międzynarodowym. Laureat I, II oraz III Międzynarodowej Olimpiady Geopolitycznej.

Karolina Siekierka

Absolwentka Uniwersytetu Warszawskiego na kierunku stosunki międzynarodowe, specjalizacji Bezpieczeństwo i Studia Strategiczne. Jej zainteresowania badawcze obejmują politykę zagraniczną i wewnętrzną Francji, prawa człowieka oraz konflikty zbrojne.

Stanisław Waszczykowski

Podoficer rezerwy, student studiów magisterskich na kierunku Bezpieczeństwo Międzynarodowe i Dyplomacja na Akademii Sztuki Wojennej, były praktykant w BBN. Jego zainteresowania badawcze obejmują m.in. operacje pokojowe ONZ oraz bezpieczeństwo Ukrainy.

Leon Pińczak

Student studiów drugiego stopnia na Uniwersytecie Warszawskim na kierunku stosunki międzynarodowe. Dziennikarz polskojęzycznej redakcji Biełsatu. Zawodowo zajmuje się obszarem postsowieckim, rosyjską polityką wewnętrzną i doktrynami FR. Biegle włada językiem rosyjskim.

Program Indo-Pacyfik tworzą:

Łukasz Kobierski

Dyrektor programu. Współzałożyciel INE oraz prezes zarządu w latach 2019-2021. Stypendysta szkoleń z zakresu bezpieczeństwa na Daniel Morgan Graduate School of National Security w Waszyngtonie, ekspert od stosunków międzynarodowych. Absolwent Uniwersytetu Warszawskiego oraz Uniwersytetu Mikołaja Kopernika. Wiceprezes Zarządu INE.

dr Joanna Siekiera

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Paweł Paszak

Absolwent stosunków międzynarodowych (spec. Wschodnioazjatycka) na Uniwersytecie Warszawskim oraz stypendysta University of Kent (W. Brytania) i Hainan University (ChRL). Doktorant UW i Akademii Sztuki Wojennej. Jego zainteresowania badawcze obejmują politykę zagraniczną ChRL oraz strategiczną rywalizację Chiny-USA.

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Patryk Szczotka

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The programme's team:

Marcin Chruściel

Programme director. Graduate of PhD studies in Political Science at the University of Wroclaw and Master studies in International Relations at the Jagiellonian University in Krakow. President of the Management Board at the Institute of New Europe.

PhD Artur Bartoszewicz

Chairman of the Institute's Programme Board. Doctor of Economic Sciences at the SGH Warsaw School of Economics. Expert in the field of public policy, including state and economic strategies. Expert at the National Centre for Research and Development and the Digital Poland Projects Centre.

Michał Banasiak

He specializes in relationship of sports and politics. Author of analysis, comments and interviews in the field of sports diplomacy and international politics. Former Polsat News and Polish Television’s foreign desk journalist.

Maciej Pawłowski

Expert on migration, economics and politics of Mediterranean countries. In the period of 2018-2020 PISM Analyst on Southern Europe. Author of various articles in Polish and foreign press about Spain, Italy, Greece, Egypt and Maghreb countries. Since September 2020 lives in North Africa (Egypt, Algeria).

Jędrzej Błaszczak

Graduate of Law at the University of Silesia. His research interests focus on the Three Seas Initiative and politics in Bulgaria. He acquired experience at the European Foundation of Human Rights in Vilnius, the Center for the Study of Democracy in Sofia, and in Polish embassies in Tehran and Tbilisi.

PhD Aleksander Olech

Programme director. Visiting lecturer at the Baltic Defence College, graduate of the European Academy of Diplomacy and War Studies University. His main research interests include terrorism, international cooperation for security in Eastern Europe and the role of NATO and the EU with regard to hybrid threats.

PhD Agnieszka Rogozińska

Member of the Institute's Programme Board. Doctor of Social Sciences in the discipline of Political Science. Editorial secretary of the academic journals "Politics & Security" and "Independence: journal devoted to Poland's recent history". Her research interests focus on security issues.

Aleksy Borówka

PhD candidate at the Faculty of Social Sciences in the University of Wroclaw, the President of the Polish National Associations of PhD Candidates in 2020. The author of dozen of scientific papers, concerning security studies, political science, administration, international relations. Laureate of the I, II and III International Geopolitical Olympiad.

Karolina Siekierka

Graduate of International Relations specializing in Security and Strategic Studies at University of Warsaw. Erasmus student at the Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1) and the Institut d’Etudes Politique de Paris (Sciences Po Paris). Her research areas include human rights, climate change and armed conflicts.

Stanisław Waszczykowski

Reserve non-commissioned officer. Master's degree student in International Security and Diplomacy at the War Studies University in Warsaw, former trainee at the National Security Bureau. His research interests include issues related to UN peacekeeping operations and the security of Ukraine.

Leon Pińczak

A second-degree student at the University of Warsaw, majoring in international relations. A journalist of the Polish language edition of Belsat. Interested in the post-Soviet area, with a particular focus on Russian internal politics and Russian doctrines - foreign, defense and information-cybernetic.

Łukasz Kobierski

Programme director. Deputy President of the Management Board. Scholarship holder at the Daniel Morgan Graduate School of National Security in Washington and an expert in the field of international relations. Graduate of the University of Warsaw and the Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń

PhD Joanna Siekiera

International lawyer, Doctor of social sciences, postdoctor at the Faculty of Law, University of Bergen, Norway. She was a scholarship holder of the New Zealand government at the Victoria University of Wellington, Institute of Cultural Diplomacy in Germany, Institut de relations internationales et stratégiques in France.

Paweł Paszak

Graduate of International Relations (specialisation in East Asian Studies) from the University of Warsaw and scholarship holder at the University of Kent (UK) and Hainan University (China). PhD candidate at the University of Warsaw and the War Studies University. His research areas include the foreign policy of China and the strategic rivalry between China and the US in the Indo-Pacific.

Jakub Graca

Master of International Relations at the Jagiellonian University in Krakow. He also studied Arabic therein. An analyst at the Center for International Initiatives (Warsaw) and the Institute of New Europe. Research interests: United States (mainly foreign policy), transatlantic relations.

Patryk Szczotka

A graduate of Far Eastern Philology with a specialization in China Studies at the University of Wroclaw and a student of a double degree “China and International Relations” at Aalborg University and University of International Relations (国际关系学院) in Beijing. His research interests include EU-China political and economic relations, as well as diplomacy.

Three Seas Think Tanks Hub is a platform of cooperation among different think tanks based in 3SI member countries. Their common goal is to strengthen public debate and understanding of the Three Seas region seen from the political, economic and security perspective. The project aims at exchanging ideas, research and publications on the region’s potential and challenges.

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The Institute for Politics and Society (Czech Republic)

The Institute analyses important economic, political, and social areas that affect today’s society. The mission of the Institute is to cultivate the Czech political and public sphere through professional and open discussion.

Nézöpont Institute (Hungary)

The Institute aims at improving Hungarian public life and public discourse by providing real data, facts and opinions based on those. Its primary focus points are Hungarian youth, media policy and Central European cooperation.

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (Austria)

The wiiw is one of the principal centres for research on Central, East and Southeast Europe with 50 years of experience. Over the years, the Institute has broadened its expertise, increasing its regional coverage – to European integration, the countries of Wider Europe and selected issues of the global economy.

The International Institute for Peace (Austria)

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The Institute for Regional and International Studies (Bulgaria)

The IRIS initiates, develops and implements civic strategies for democratic politics at the national, regional and international level. The Institute promotes the values of democracy, civil society, freedom and respect for law and assists the process of deepening Bulgarian integration in NATO and the EU.

The European Institute of Romania

EIR is a public institution whose mission is to provide expertise in the field of European Affairs to the public administration, the business community, the social partners and the civil society. EIR’s activity is focused on four key domains: research, training, communication, translation of the EHRC case-law.

The Institute of New Europe (Poland)

The Institute is an advisory and analytical non-governmental organisation active in the fields of international politics, international security and economics. The Institute supports policy-makers by providing them with expert opinions, as well as creating a platform for academics, publicists, and commentators to exchange ideas.

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