Małgorzata Czarnik, Bartosz Mirowski, Maciej Pawłowski
Theses and introduction
- Overpopulation and poverty in Egypt are prompting the population to emigrate.
- The main direction of legal migration of Egyptians is the Persian Gulf countries.
- Egypt is a transit country for migrants from Palestine and the Horn of Africa wishing to enter the EU.
Reasons for migration
Economic issues primarily motivate the decision to emigrate from Egypt since it is a country with strong social stratification and high levels of poverty. In Cairo, adjacent to affluent estates, there are neighborhoods where it is common to witness individuals sleeping outdoors. Approx. 25% of the population lives on less than $3.65 a day. The unemployment rate is only 7.1%, but hidden unemployment is several times higher due to government-subsidized employment. The average monthly wage in the country is about $180. Overpopulation and uncontrolled population growth pose significant challenges. Over the past 20 years, the country’s population has grown from 77.5 million to 114.5 million. By 2100, it is expected to reach 205 million. At least 20 million people live in Cairo alone.
Legal migration
According to the Egyptian Ministry of Migration, as of July 2023, the number of Egyptian citizens living abroad exceeds 14 million. Egypt is the main labor supplier in the Middle East. Regional labor emigration has a 50-year tradition. In 2023, Egypt ranked 6th among countries receiving the largest remittances. Their total value amounted to 25 billion euros.
The largest Egyptian diaspora (about 1.5 million people) is in Saudi Arabia. Other Gulf states are home to at least 1.5–3 million Egyptian citizens. Before 2011, Libya was a popular migration destination. The number of Egyptians employed there was between 330,000 and 1.5 million. The Libyan civil war forced most of them to return to Egypt. There are currently about 150,000 migrants from Egypt in Libya. Many migrated to Jordan (about 1 million), and some to Sudan. There are probably 6—9 million Egyptians living in Arab countries. In contrast, the Egyptian diaspora in the US is more than 300,000 people, and in Canada, more than 100,000.
The lack of trustworthy and frequently updated data sources contributes to the analysis’s difficulty. The EU is an exception in this regard. Egyptians submitted more than 1.5 million applications for Schengen visas between 2014 and 2023. The average annual number of applications in 2014–2019 was 150,000, peaking at 197,700 in 2019. The COVID-19 pandemic caused a drastic drop in applications in 2020–2021 (97,500). However, in 2023, the number returned to its pre-pandemic levels, with 186,500 applications. There is a noticeable decline in the rate of positive visa decisions. The average for the entire period (excluding 2020-2021), at 83.82%, is significantly higher than the value of the rate in 2023, which was 74.8%.
The offices of France (465,500) and Germany (318,000) handled more than half of all applications to Schengen countries (51%). France’s share of applicants decreased from 32.2% in 2014–2019 to 22.6% in 2023. In contrast, Germany’s shares increased from 18.9% in 2014–2019 to 27.7% in 2023. It is likely that some people are shifting their interest to Germany at the expense of France, as the percentage share of other countries in accepted applications remains stable. Popular destinations also include Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, and Greece, which together processed more than 485,000 (31.7%) applications between 2014 and 2023.
Egyptians use many methods to extort visas. One of these methods involves marriages with European women of mature age, who are met in Egyptian resorts. According to reports from consular staff, these marriages often last until the Egyptian obtains residency in the EU. Once he achieves residency in the EU, he sometimes resorts to violence against his wife to force her to divorce him. Egyptians often do not return from tourist visas. The most spectacular example concerns the Egyptian national team’s trip to an international soccer tournament for the sightless in Poland in 2015. Members of the national team obtained visas, arrived in the EU, and disappeared. European services found them and discovered they were not sightless people.
Illegal migration
The main destinations of illegal migration for Egyptians are the Gulf countries. However, these countries often send them back. The immigration policies of these countries are very restrictive. Generally, these countries do not accept illegal migration, and they grant asylum to refugees only temporarily, until they find third countries willing to accept them. Indeed, national interest, which takes precedence over humanitarian issues and international law, determines the decision to accept migrants in these countries. The EU is the most common destination for illegal migrants.
Smugglers exploit the motivations of migrants, demanding approximately 2,500 euros per individual to facilitate their journey to Europe. Paying such an amount often involves spending a person’s entire life savings and even incurring debts to relatives. Various stages of the trip require installment payments. Those unable to pay face starvation, beatings, or hostage-taking.
The vast majority of Egyptian migrants in the EU are men. Their share of arrivals reached 93% in Q1 2022. The majority (71%) of female arrivals from Egypt are under the age of 18. Between 2009 and 2024, more than 71,200 migrants arrived illegally from Egypt. 63,700 took the Eastern Mediterranean route (via Turkey to Greece), and 7,500 took the Central Mediterranean route (via Libya to Italy).
Egypt is a transit country for migrants wishing to reach the EU from countries in the Horn of Africa and Palestine. Egypt is home to more than 6 million Sudanese and South Sudanese nationals. Other migrant groups include Palestinians, Somalis, Ethiopians, and Eritreans. In-depth interviews conducted by Maciej Pawłowski in 2020 reveal that, despite meeting the criteria for asylum, these migrants often find themselves compelled to remain in Egypt for the duration of their lives. There are situations where Egyptian employees of the International Organisation for Migration (IOM) sell South Sudaneses’ decisions to grant them asylum to middle-class Egyptians. In these countries, instead of names, people identify themselves by the names of their fathers, grandfathers, and great-grandfathers. Just by changing the photo on the document, an Egyptian can travel to the US, Australia, or the EU, as, for example, Mohamed Ahmed Sherif Abdullah from South Sudan. Services in the destination country are often unable to discover the fraud.
Egyptians discriminate against migrants from the Horn of Africa, leading them to attempt illegal migration to the EU, which they perceive as a place of respect and prosperity. Abuse of domestic helpers, beatings, and rape are common. In 2021, Egyptian teenagers kidnapped their peer from South Sudan and forced him to clean their parents’ apartment through beatings. Only when the media reveals such cases the Egyptian state responds. Between 2009 and 2024, 78,000 Somalis and 48,000 Sudanese tried to enter the EU illegally. Most of them lived in Egypt before attempting illegal migration.
Egypt counters illegal migration to the EU through agreements with Germany, Italy, Greece, and Cyprus. Egyptian-Italian cooperation has been ongoing since 2000 (with further agreements in 2007 and 2009). 2015 saw the conclusion of the Egyptian-Greek-Cypriot agreement, and 2017 saw the conclusion of the Egyptian-German agreement. Egypt and the EU concluded an agreement on March 17, 2024, to provide €7.4 billion in support for the country’s development in exchange for effective border control. Based on these agreements, Egypt’s coast guard prevents boats with migrants from leaving its territory. Maciej Pawłowski observed inhumane practices during his stay in Egypt in 2020-2021. There is a ban on staying after dark on Egyptian Mediterranean beaches. The military guards its implementation, threatening to shoot those who violate it. Drones also shoot down cars that enter the Egyptian-Libyan border zone in the Sahara without permission.
Conclusion
Egypt is a transit and origin country for migrants. Its importance is high, though not crucial. The Egyptian government does not have the tools to directly influence the EU borders. It shares borders with Libya to the west and Israel to the east. Deliberately creating migratory pressure on these countries is not an option, as it would result in war. It makes no sense for migrants to choose the sea route to Greece or Cyprus because of the excessive distance. The effects of the implementation of the agreements concluded between Egypt and the EU are visible. However, the methods used to implement these agreements are cruel and inhumane. These actions are socially acceptable due to the prevailing culture of force, racism, and classism among Egyptians.
The EU should act to improve the situation of migrants, reduce illegal migration, and support Egypt’s socio-economic development to become a destination country for migration. The EU should condition the disbursement of EU funds to Egypt on the achievement of milestones for improving the treatment of migrants or the implementation of educational programs that promote anti-racist, egalitarian attitudes and respect for human rights. Large investments, industrial development, and economic growth measures should themselves generate jobs for Egyptians and migrants. The challenge, however, will be to ensure that the local elite does not consume the funds allocated for investment. In addition to this, cooperation must continue in combating smuggling networks while treating migrants more humanely.
Maciej Pawłowski’s book “Gateway to Europe. Will North Africa decide the future of the Old Continent” will present more information on migration to the EU. The book will be published by Prześwity Publishing in 2025.
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