Beirut, September 5, 2025
Progress in the Disarmament of Hezbollah
In Lebanon, intensive efforts are underway to restore the central government in Beirut’s full monopoly on the use of armed force. In this context, the Lebanese government has tasked the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) with preparing a comprehensive plan to disarm all irregular groups operating in the country. However, this is not the first attempt to limit the presence of armed militias- both the 1989 Taif Agreement, which ended the civil war, and UN Security Council Resolutions 1559 and 1701 explicitly called for the dissolution and disarmament of all groups operating outside state control. At the same time, an operation is underway targeting armed groups in the refugee camps, where nearly half of the roughly 500,000 Palestinians living in the country reside.
On September 5, the Council of Ministers of Lebanon revisited this issue, analyzing the latest plan presented by the army, based on nine months of operational experience. During this period, the LAF, in cooperation with the UNIFIL contingent, conducted a series of operations against Hezbollah structures in southern Lebanon. According to the new concept, the disarmament process is to be carried out in five phases. The first phase will cover the area south of the Litani River, then move north toward the area near the Awali River (Nahr al-Awali), considered a symbolic gateway to southern Lebanon. Subsequent phases will include Beirut and its suburbs, as well as the Bekaa Valley. The final, fifth phase envisions expanding operations across the entire territory of the state. At the same time, an operation is underway targeting armed groups in the refugee camps, where nearly half of the roughly 500,000 Palestinians living in the country reside
Despite ongoing disarmament efforts, reports indicate that Hezbollah continues to rearm. Weapons are reaching territories controlled by the group mainly by sea and via smuggling routes from Syria- primarily new rockets, anti-tank weapons, and artillery shells. At the same time, Hezbollah continues efforts to produce armaments within Lebanon, particularly in the suburbs of Beirut and in the Bekaa Valley.
When considering the likelihood of success, it should be noted that, despite significant weakening, Hezbollah remains a major force in the region, and its armed wing is effectively the largest non-state military force in the world. The question, therefore, does not seem to be whether Hezbollah will attempt to rebuild its capabilities from before 2024, but rather whether the government in Beirut will be able to effectively prevent it.
Doha, September 9, 2025
Operation Aceret HaDin – IDF Strike on Hamas Delegation in Qatar’s Capital
On September 9, around 3:00 PM local time, Israeli armed forces carried out an attack on a government residential complex on Wadi Rawdan Street in the West Bay Lagoon, also known as Leqtaifiya, a district of Doha, Qatar’s capital. The targets were Hamas representatives present at the site. The operation, named Aceret HaDin (“Day of Judgment”), appears to reference the Jewish holiday Shemini Aceret, which in 2023 fell precisely on October 7- the day of Hamas’s attack on southern Israel.
The operation involved eight Israeli F-15 fighter jets and four F-35s, which launched ballistic missiles from positions over the Red Sea. The direct targets were four members of the organization’s political bureau: Khaled Mashal (former head of the political bureau), Khalil al-Hayya (Hamas’s chief negotiator), Muhammad Ismail Darwish (current head of the political bureau, also known as Abu Omar Hassan), and Zaher Jabarin (political bureau member and financial administrator). All survived the attack, but the explosion killed five members of the Hamas delegation, including al-Hayya’s son and Corporal Badr Saad Muhammad al-Humaydi al-Dosari, an officer of Qatar’s Internal Security Service.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz issued a joint statement justifying the operation by citing previous attacks in East Jerusalem that had killed six Israeli citizens. “Israel initiated this operation, Israel carried it out, and Israel takes full responsibility for it,” the statement from Tel Aviv read. Netanyahu cited the destruction of Hamas command centers and the prevention of future attacks as the immediate motivation for the strike.
Politically, the Israeli airstrike on Qatari territory- a strategic U.S. ally and host of the CENTCOM base at Al-Udeid- represents an unprecedented violation of the sovereignty of a Gulf state not at war with Israel.
New York, September 22, 2025 r.
More States Officially Recognize the State of Palestine
During the 80th session of the United Nations General Assembly, several more countries announced their recognition of the State of Palestine, including France, Belgium, Luxembourg, Andorra, Monaco, and Malta. They joined the United Kingdom, Portugal, Australia, and Canada, which officially recognized Palestine the previous day- on September 21.
Currently, Palestine is recognized as a state by 159 out of 193 UN member states, representing over 80% of the international community. Importantly, this recognition is not merely symbolic; by strengthening Palestine’s position on the international stage, it enhances its ability to participate in diplomatic processes, international institutions, and efforts to further formalize its statehood.
At the same time, this step brings the prospect of a two-state solution closer- a solution that, after the outbreak of war in 2023 and the increasing settlement expansion in the West Bank, had seemed more distant than ever.
For Israel, the growing number of countries recognizing Palestine is a clear signal of deepening diplomatic isolation. This process is occurring at a time when Tel Aviv faces increasing international criticism, particularly regarding its actions in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank. Recognition of Palestine by additional key Western countries- including Israel’s traditional partners- could further limit its diplomatic maneuvering space and increase political and legal pressure from international organizations.
New York, September 28, 2025
UN Reinstates Sanctions on Iran Over JCPOA Violations
The United Nations has restored the full package of sanctions and restrictive measures against the Islamic Republic of Iran, in accordance with Security Council resolutions 1696, 1737, 1747, 1803, 1835, and 1929. The Security Council’s decision reflects the international community’s response to Iran’s serious non-compliance with the obligations outlined in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The process of reactivating the sanctions, known as the “snapback” mechanism, was initiated on August 28, 2025, by the E3 group—France, Germany, and the United Kingdom- under the provisions established in the JCPOA and UN Security Council resolution 2231.
As of September 28, the provisions of the six aforementioned Security Council resolutions are back in force. They are designed to limit the threats posed by the further development of Iran’s nuclear program and missile capabilities. The restored restrictions include, among others: the requirement for Iran to suspend all uranium enrichment activities, the production of so-called heavy water (used as a moderator in nuclear reactors), and nuclear fuel processing. The sanctions also reinstate the arms export embargo to Iran, reimpose travel bans on key Iranian officials, and allow for the freezing of assets of designated individuals and entities. The goal of these measures is to exert diplomatic pressure on Tehran in the hope that it will take actions leading to full compliance with its previous non-proliferation commitments.
Gulf of Aden, September 29, 2025
Gulf of Aden: Houthi Attack on Dutch Commercial Vessel
Since October 7, 2023, Houthi rebels have conducted a sustained campaign of drone and ballistic missile attacks targeting sites in Israel as well as civilian vessels in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. The group justifies its actions as opposition to the Israeli occupation and the ongoing offensive in Gaza. The direct consequence of these operations has been a significant threat to international shipping routes and regional stability.
On September 29, the Dutch shipping company Spliethoff confirmed that one of its vessels, the M/V Minervagracht, was attacked while navigating the Gulf of Aden. At the time of the attack, the ship was en route east of Djibouti and was not carrying any cargo. The Houthis claimed the attack was in retaliation for the vessel’s previous visits to Israeli ports, which they argued constituted a violation of their imposed restrictions.
This incident represents the first of its kind since July of this year, when two vessels flying the Liberian flag- the M/V Magic Seas and M/V Eternity C- were similarly targeted. Notably, there has been a marked increase in the effectiveness of Houthi operations; attacks carried out in 2024 and early 2025 did not result in consequences as severe as those observed in the aforementioned incidents.
The growing frequency of Houthi attacks elevates the risk of regional escalation and may necessitate an enhanced presence of coalition forces in the Bab al-Mandab Strait and the Gulf of Aden. Continued attacks are placing increased pressure on maritime operators and insurance providers, which could contribute to rising transit costs through the Bab al-Mandab Strait and the Suez Canal, reflecting the heightened operational risk along this critical maritime corridor.
Mediterranean Sea, October 3, 2025
Interception of the Global Sumud Flotilla by the IDF
The Global Sumud flotilla was one of the most prominent humanitarian initiatives launched in response to the crisis in the Gaza Strip. Its objective was to break the Israeli blockade of the territory, in place for over 18 years. The flotilla consisted of more than 40 civilian vessels carrying a total of over 500 crew members from approximately 44 countries. It was the largest initiative of its kind in history. For the first time since the establishment of the Israeli naval blockade in 2009- four years after Israel’s withdrawal from Gaza in 2005- the flotilla managed to approach within 70 nautical miles of the Gaza coastline.
The flotilla set sail for Gaza in August 2025. By September 30, it had approached relatively close to the Gaza Strip. On the same day, the Italian Navy concluded its escort of the vessels when they reached 150 nautical miles (approximately 280 km). The Spanish Navy also confirmed that it ended its escort once the flotilla reached 120 nautical miles. Meanwhile, the vessels were being monitored by Turkish forces, who pledged to provide necessary assistance if the ships were in danger.
Initial Israeli interventions occurred late on Wednesday evening, when the IDF attempted to board some vessels, detaining certain volunteers and transporting them to the port of Ashdod. By Thursday noon, Israeli authorities reported that all vessels, except for the Marinette, had been intercepted.
On October 3, Israeli forces also seized the Marinette, the last vessel still attempting to continue the flotilla’s mission. This ship had previously separated from the convoy due to technical difficulties, which forced it to temporarily return to Barcelona.
Gaza Strip, October 10, 2025
Gaza Strip: Commencement of the First Stage of Ceasefire
On Friday, October 10, at 12:00 PM local time, the first stage of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas came into effect. The agreement was negotiated with the mediation of the United States, Qatar, and Turkey and was approved by the Israeli government the previous day. This represents the most significant step toward de-escalation since the outbreak of the war in October 2023. According to Palestinian sources, the conflict has resulted in nearly 68,000 casualties and created a catastrophic humanitarian situation.
Under the terms of the agreement, Hamas began the process of releasing 20 hostages still held in Gaza and committed to transferring the bodies of other victims. The Israeli side released approximately 2,000 Palestinian prisoners and also pledged to return the bodies located within Israeli territory. The IDF partially withdrew from certain areas of the Gaza Strip while maintaining control over more than half of its territory. As part of the agreement, Israel committed to allowing the daily entry of 600 trucks of humanitarian aid, including food, fuel, and medical supplies. The United States deployed 200 personnel to Israel to monitor the implementation of the ceasefire provisions. Their presence is advisory and does not include operations within Gaza itself.
Israeli restrictions on so-called “dual-use materials” remain in place, limiting the delivery of fuel and medical equipment. According to Islamic Relief, the agreed 600 trucks per day constitute only a “fraction of actual needs” given the ongoing humanitarian crisis. The UN Secretary-General announced plans to scale up humanitarian efforts in Gaza and called for the full, unhindered flow of aid to the population.
Baghdad, October 12, 2025
Mass Arrests of Individuals Linked to the Baath Party in Iraq
According to Arshad Hakim, spokesperson for the Iraqi National Intelligence Service (INSS), a nationwide operation in Iraq resulted in the arrest of 135 individuals suspected of having ties to the banned Baath Party. The arrests took place across 14 provinces and were based on information obtained during interrogations of former officials of Saddam Hussein’s regime who are currently in detention.
Hakim emphasized that illegal groups associated with the Baath Party had sought to engage youth in propaganda activities, establishing covert online accounts and organizing local cells. Some coordinators operated from abroad, using social media to recruit members and disseminate the party’s ideology.
In Iraq, expressing support for the Baath Party through membership, promotion of its symbols, or advocacy of its ideology has been prohibited since 2016. The recent arrests occurred less than a month before parliamentary elections, during which hundreds of candidates were already disqualified due to links with the former regime. In July of this year, the INSS conducted a similar operation, detaining 40 individuals suspected of Baathist activity and planning acts of sabotage.
The Baath Party, led by Saddam Hussein, ruled Iraq for over three decades, from 1968 to 2003, until the regime was overthrown by the US-UK invasion. Iraq’s current constitution prohibits the promotion of symbols and ideas from the former system, considering it a threat to state security.
Baathism was a political ideology based on Arab nationalism- striving for the unity of all Arab nations through shared culture and language- and Arab socialism. In practice, the Baath Party combined calls for Arab unity with an authoritarian model of governance and repression of political opponents. Hussein’s rule was marked by severe oppression of ethnic and religious minorities, most tragically exemplified by the Anfal campaign against the Kurds and the chemical attack on Halabja in 1988, which killed thousands and caused severe injuries to many more.
The legacy of Hussein’s regime continues to influence contemporary Iraqi politics. The arrests of individuals linked to Baathist ideology, particularly ahead of parliamentary elections, aim to prevent the resurgence of former power structures.
Sharm El-Sheikh, October 13, 2025
Peace Summit in Sharm El-Sheikh
On October 13, 2025, the Peace Summit took place in the Egyptian resort of Sharm El-Sheikh, organized at the initiative of Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi and U.S. President Donald Trump. The summit was attended by leaders from over twenty countries, including Turkey, Qatar, Jordan, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Saudi Arabia, Palestine, and Indonesia. During the summit, a ceasefire plan between Israel and Hamas was presented, intended as the first step toward ending the two-year-long war in the Gaza Strip and laying the foundation for lasting peace and regional stability.
The highlight of the summit was the signing of the Sharm El-Sheikh Peace Declaration, confirming the participating countries’ support for the peace process between Israel and Hamas. The document was signed by Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, U.S. President Donald Trump, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani.
In the final communiqué, the leaders declared their readiness to implement the Peace Plan announced by President Trump on September 29, 2025, which includes 20 points such as the demilitarization of Gaza, the release of hostages, reconstruction of infrastructure, and the establishment of a temporary administration supported by the international community.
Sana’a, October 26, 2025
Further UN Staff Detentions by Houthi Forces
The Houthi movement (Ansar Allah), which controls most of northern Yemen, including the capital Sana’a, has recently carried out additional detentions of United Nations personnel. According to Stéphane Dujarric, spokesperson for the UN Secretary-General, another staff member from a UN agency was detained, bringing the total number of recently held personnel to six. Currently, at least 59 UN staff members remain in the hands of Houthi fighters. The detentions are justified by the Houthis with allegations of purported espionage on behalf of the United States and Israel.
According to UN reports, Houthi security forces entered a facility in Sana’a on October 26, confiscating IT and communications equipment and detaining staff. Farhan Haq, Deputy Spokesperson for the Secretary-General, stated that hundreds of UN personnel- including staff from UNICEF, WFP and OCHA*- remain in Houthi-controlled areas, including a small contingent of international staff. Intense efforts are underway to ensure the safety of the remaining personnel and to secure the release of those detained.
*UNICEF- United Nations Children’s Fund, WFP – World Food Programme, OCHA- United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs
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