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Institute of New Europe Institute of New Europe
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Nov 12
Analysis, Central Europe, Eastern Europe, Economy, Europe, European Union, Poland, Publications

Poland Country Brief. A rising regional leader built upon healthy fundamentals and geostrategic leverage

November 12, 2021
Poland Country Brief. A rising regional leader built upon healthy fundamentals and geostrategic leverageDownload

With the return of Great Power Competition, instability is rising in certain parts of the world, and economic growth becomes strained by political factors challenging to assess. However, institutions, international safety and connectivity are still the backbone of fast growth and capital value development.

In this context, Poland increasingly appears as one of the last untapped reserves of value creation. Moreover, its integration in the EU, NATO, its very close ties to the US, and its role as a regional leader are opening very promising perspectives to the Polish economy.

Internal security

Corruption is very limited in Poland. The country is ranked 44th in the 2020 International Transparency Corruption ranking, which is not far from France (23rd), the US (25th), Spain (32nd), South Korea (33rd) or Israel (35th), and better than the Czech Republic (49th), Italy (52nd), Hungary (69th) or China (78th). Comparing Poland to countries such as Russia (129th) is of little interest.

Overall, Poland is among the safest countries in Europe, with very low robbery (chart below) and criminal offence rates. According to Eurostat, Poland’s criminal offence rate is around 3%, while the European mean is 11%.

A skilled society

In the OECD study Skills Matter, Poland figures among the best-ranked nations, with 60% of 25-34 years-olds holding tertiary education degrees, just above the US and significantly higher than the OECD average, which stands at 52%.

50% of recent tertiary graduates are overqualified for their job, which is the highest rate in the OECD, after the Slovak Republic, Croatia, Italy, the Czech Republic and Portugal. However, Poland displays also one of the most significant differentials in overqualification between recent and older graduates. Only 30% of older graduates (+35 years old) are overqualified, which the increasing quality of education can explain, but also of jobs. In other words, there is still substantial potential for jobs improvement, and salaries rise.

The EF English Proficiency Index ranks Poland 16th out of 100 nations, which is ahead of Switzerland (18th), France (28th), Italy (30th), South Korea (32th), Spain (34th) or even  Japan (55th).

It is worth noting that this has been achieved despite a level of education spending lower than the OECD average: about 5% of GDP.

However, Poland’s successes in the field of education should not come as a surprise. Poland has nurtured quantities of world-class scientists throughout history. Among the most famous: Copernicus, Hevelius, Sklodowska-Curie, Banach (the founder of functional analysis), Tarkowski (in vitro fertilization), Cybulski (adrenaline), Hurwicz (game theory), Charpak (particle detectors), Drzewiecki (1st electric submarine), Lukasiewicz (1st oil refinery & oil well), Bryla (1st welded road bridge), Ulam (Manhattan Project, Teller-Ulam design), Kosciuszko (West Point fortifications), Kosacki (mine detector), Bekker (Lunar Roving Vehicle), Funk (vitamins), Konorski (neural plasticity), Hoffmann (chemical reactions), Olszewski (liquefied oxygen), Malinowski (among the founders of anthropology), Proszynski (1st film camera, before the Lumiere brothers), Sendzimir (industrial-scale galvanizing), Steinhaus (game theory & probability theory), Wolfke (holography & television), Zglenicki (oil extraction from sea bottom), Wolszczan (extrasolar & pulsar planets), …

Value creation through geostrategic leverage

The importance of NATO and of Poland’s very close relationship with the US for its development cannot be stressed enough. It is what Andrew Michta, one of the most acute geopolitical experts of the region, does frequently: “The stunning transformation of post-communist Europe after 1990 was possible not only because of the powerful appeal of democracy and markets, but above all because Russia was literally expelled from the region. […] National security and state sovereignty were the sine qua non of the successful transformation of post-communist Central Europe”.

The strengthening of transatlantic ties is then of crucial importance to Poland, especially since the decline of the US is a myth, as I argue in my paper Global Systemic Cycles and the Current Transition: An Interdisciplinary Reflection About Global Growth, Economic Cycles, and Great Power Competition.

Poland spends 2,4% of its GDP – more thus the 2% NATO requirement – on its defense, multiplying American equipment purchases, like F35 fighter jets and M1A2 Abrams thanks lately, making the Polish army interoperable with American armed forces.

The US is set to increase its military presence in Poland with 1000 additional troops in the framework of an Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement.

The US has pledged a $1b investment in the Three Seas Initiative Investment Fund (3SIIF), which objective is to “invest in transport, energy and digital infrastructure on the north-south axis in the Three Seas countries and to offset the differences in the development of individual regions of the European Union”. This US-supported fund is intended to receive public as well as private investments from around the globe.

The special US support from which benefited certain strategically situated countries has been highly beneficial to their development. Remarkable instances of this are Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, and Israel. Poland, along with other Central and Eastern European nations, is the latest such key ally.

A diversified and industrialized economic portfolio

A winner in the international trade competition

The Covid crisis has brought a new wave of investments into Central Europe. As underlines Patrick Artus, Natxis’ Chief Economist: “When we look at recent developments, we see a much better resilience of production, industry, investment and employment in Central European countries relative to euro-zone countries, which shows the importance of the competitive advantage of Central European countries”. Capital and jobs are moving from Western Europe to Eastern Europe: “France’s external deficit is with Europe and not with emerging countries. […] France has a disadvantage in terms of both cost competitiveness and non-cost competitiveness (product sophistication, skills)”. There is a rebalancing of the distribution of wealth in Europe following the delay in economic development that Central Europe has suffered during the 20th century.

In 2020, Poland has overtaken Italy and France to become Germany’s 4th biggest import partner (~$68b), after China, the Netherlands and the US. In April 2021, Germany imported $7,72b worth of goods from Poland (chart on the right), and Polish-German trade has been growing at a fast pace in 2021.

This is proof that Poland’s economy is rising in the international value chain, its products becoming more valuable to German companies while still cheaper than those of Western European nations.

Moreover, Poland is a perfect candidate for the services delocalization wave brought by the Covid crisis and the remote work trend.

Overall, Central Europe’s economic dynamic is profoundly different from Western Europe, where automation paradoxically tends to lower the skills sought by employers. The Western European wage level is no longer adequate for these jobs.

An effervescent job market

Unemployment in Poland is exceptionally low (3,5%), which results in steep wages growth: 6,6% in 2019 (4,8% in real wages terms), and 5,1% in 2020 (1,2% in real wages terms).

The overabundance of jobs is answered mainly by the inflow of Ukrainian workers (532k at the end of 2020, 75% of all foreign workers). In 2020, Poland also issued the largest number of first residence permits granted in the EU to non-EU citizens: 598k (26% of the total).

Climbing the value chain: the Morawiecki plan

A comprehensive development strategy, the Morawiecki plan, has entered into force in 2016 to prevent Poland from falling into five development traps: stagnating salaries, capital flight, average products, demographic imbalances, weak institutions.

One of the most striking effects of this plan has been the creation of the Polish Development Fund, which operates in a comparable way to the French Caisse des Depots. It has so far invested ~$5.5b in Polish companies, of which $200m in start-ups. As we see below, this has been a profound game-changer.

An underleveraged economy

Polish sovereign debt amounted to only 57,5% of GDP at the beginning of 2021, and household debt to 35,4%.

Polish companies are severely underleveraged too. This can be partly explained by a cultural fear of debt related to the country’s previous heavy reliance on foreign debt and the relatively small size of polish family businesses, and their frequent lack of financial knowledge.

Financial independence

Poland’s reliance on external debt is rapidly ending since it now accounts for only 32% of its total central government debt, compared to 56% in 2013.

Lightspeed infrastructural development

The Polish railway will receive $75b in funding during the 2021-2030 period.

A new international airport, the Solidarity Transport Hub, will be launched in 2027 at an estimated $9b.

$36,6b is being invested from 2014 to 2023 in road infrastructure. Here is a map that shows the speed of Polish highways construction:

A natural regional leader

Poland’s financial infrastructure is the most solid in the region, making it the main gateway between international investors and Central European economies. According to the Swedish economist Anders Aslund, “the post-communist countries have failed to develop sound stock markets. The only real success is Poland. […] For many countries, this means that an IPO should take place either in Warsaw or at a Western stock market.”

Poland has so far contributed the most significant amounts to the Three Seas Fund ($850m) and leads the block. The Three Seas Fund’s purpose is to invest in transport, energy and digital infrastructure on the north-south axis in the Three Seas countries. As analyses Pierre-Emmanuel Thomann, the motivation behind this is that “the current infrastructure is oriented in an east-west direction. The inherited infrastructure, built during Cold War times, are perceived as factors of geopolitical dependence on Russia, the main energy provider in the area, and reinforcement of Germany’s economic dominance since the EU enlargement to the countries of Central and Eastern Europe”. The total number of projects under the Three Seas Initiative is currently 90, grossing an estimated investment value of ~$210b. In other words, the Initiative has the potential to redefine European trade.

In 2019, exchanges of the Three Seas region have agreed to create the new CEEplus index. It includes the largest and most liquid stocks listed on the exchanges of the Visegrad Group countries (PL, HU, SK, CZ), Croatia, Romania and Slovenia. The index is the underlying of a passive fund managed by the Polish TFI PZU and floated on the Warsaw Stock Exchange.

It should be noted that this role is made possible by the close alliance with the US and its support for the project, which, as the geopolitical analyst and director of the AIES, Velina Tchakarova, points out, “is not only setting its foot in the neighborhood but also hopes to lure the region to its side”.

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Daniel Nicolas Foubert Daniel Nicolas Foubert. Polish and French citizen, Financial and Geopolitical Consultant. He holds a Master’s in International Relations from the Sorbonne, a Master’s in Finance from Neoma Business School, and a Bachelor in History from the Sorbonne. He trained as an M&A Analyst at Suez SA and Mazars, after working as a Business Developer at the fintech company Lemon Way, where he gained knowledge about the Polish market and investment processes in Poland. He notably assisted in the vendor due diligence for Accor’s disposal of its stake in Orbis for €1.06bn. His objective is to bridge the gap between international companies and the Polish economy.

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Daniel Nicolas Foubert Daniel Nicolas Foubert. Polish and French citizen, Financial and Geopolitical Consultant. He holds a Master’s in International Relations from the Sorbonne, a Master’s in Finance from Neoma Business School, and a Bachelor in History from the Sorbonne. He trained as an M&A Analyst at Suez SA and Mazars, after working as a Business Developer at the fintech company Lemon Way, where he gained knowledge about the Polish market and investment processes in Poland. He notably assisted in the vendor due diligence for Accor’s disposal of its stake in Orbis for €1.06bn. His objective is to bridge the gap between international companies and the Polish economy.
Program Europa tworzą:

Marcin Chruściel

Dyrektor programu. Absolwent studiów doktoranckich z zakresu nauk o polityce na Uniwersytecie Wrocławskim, magister stosunków międzynarodowych i europeistyki Uniwersytetu Jagiellońskiego. Prezes Zarządu Instytutu Nowej Europy.

dr Artur Bartoszewicz

Przewodniczący Rady Programowej Instytutu Nowej Europy. Doktor nauk ekonomicznych Szkoły Głównej Handlowej. Ekspert w dziedzinie polityki publicznej, w tym m. in. strategii państwa i gospodarki.

Michał Banasiak

Specjalizuje się w relacjach sportu i polityki. Autor analiz, komentarzy i wywiadów z zakresu dyplomacji sportowej i polityki międzynarodowej. Były dziennikarz Polsat News i wysłannik redakcji zagranicznej Telewizji Polskiej.

Maciej Pawłowski

Ekspert ds. migracji, gospodarki i polityki państw basenu Morza Śródziemnego. W latach 2018-2020 Analityk PISM ds. Południowej Europy. Autor publikacji w polskiej i zagranicznej prasie na temat Hiszpanii, Włoch, Grecji, Egiptu i państw Magrebu. Od września 2020 r. mieszka w północnej Afryce (Egipt, Algieria).

Jędrzej Błaszczak

Absolwent studiów prawniczych Uniwersytetu Śląskiego w Katowicach. Jego zainteresowania badawcze koncentrują się na Inicjatywie Trójmorza i polityce w Bułgarii. Doświadczenie zdobywał w European Foundation of Human Rights w Wilnie, Center for the Study of Democracy w Sofii i polskich placówkach dyplomatycznych w Teheranie i Tbilisi.

Program Bezpieczeństwo tworzą:

dr Aleksander Olech

Dyrektor programu. Wykładowca na Baltic Defence College, absolwent Europejskiej Akademii Dyplomacji oraz Akademii Sztuki Wojennej. Jego główne zainteresowania badawcze to terroryzm, bezpieczeństwo w Europie Środkowo-Wschodniej oraz rola NATO i UE w środowisku zagrożeń hybrydowych.

dr Agnieszka Rogozińska

Członek Rady Programowej Instytutu Nowej Europy. Doktor nauk społecznych w dyscyplinie nauki o polityce. Zainteresowania badawcze koncentruje na problematyce bezpieczeństwa euroatlantyckiego, instytucjonalnym wymiarze bezpieczeństwa i współczesnych zagrożeniach.

Aleksy Borówka

Doktorant na Wydziale Nauk Społecznych Uniwersytetu Wrocławskiego, Przewodniczący Krajowej Reprezentacji Doktorantów w kadencji 2020. Autor kilkunastu prac naukowych, poświęconych naukom o bezpieczeństwie, naukom o polityce i administracji oraz stosunkom międzynarodowym. Laureat I, II oraz III Międzynarodowej Olimpiady Geopolitycznej.

Karolina Siekierka

Absolwentka Uniwersytetu Warszawskiego na kierunku stosunki międzynarodowe, specjalizacji Bezpieczeństwo i Studia Strategiczne. Jej zainteresowania badawcze obejmują politykę zagraniczną i wewnętrzną Francji, prawa człowieka oraz konflikty zbrojne.

Stanisław Waszczykowski

Podoficer rezerwy, student studiów magisterskich na kierunku Bezpieczeństwo Międzynarodowe i Dyplomacja na Akademii Sztuki Wojennej, były praktykant w BBN. Jego zainteresowania badawcze obejmują m.in. operacje pokojowe ONZ oraz bezpieczeństwo Ukrainy.

Leon Pińczak

Student studiów drugiego stopnia na Uniwersytecie Warszawskim na kierunku stosunki międzynarodowe. Dziennikarz polskojęzycznej redakcji Biełsatu. Zawodowo zajmuje się obszarem postsowieckim, rosyjską polityką wewnętrzną i doktrynami FR. Biegle włada językiem rosyjskim.

Program Indo-Pacyfik tworzą:

Łukasz Kobierski

Dyrektor programu. Współzałożyciel INE oraz prezes zarządu w latach 2019-2021. Stypendysta szkoleń z zakresu bezpieczeństwa na Daniel Morgan Graduate School of National Security w Waszyngtonie, ekspert od stosunków międzynarodowych. Absolwent Uniwersytetu Warszawskiego oraz Uniwersytetu Mikołaja Kopernika. Wiceprezes Zarządu INE.

dr Joanna Siekiera

Prawnik międzynarodowy, doktor nauk społecznych, adiunkt na Wydziale Prawa Uniwersytetu w Bergen w Norwegii. Była stypendystką rządu Nowej Zelandii na Uniwersytecie Victorii w Wellington, niemieckiego Institute of Cultural Diplomacy, a także francuskiego Institut de relations internationales et stratégiques.

Paweł Paszak

Absolwent stosunków międzynarodowych (spec. Wschodnioazjatycka) na Uniwersytecie Warszawskim oraz stypendysta University of Kent (W. Brytania) i Hainan University (ChRL). Doktorant UW i Akademii Sztuki Wojennej. Jego zainteresowania badawcze obejmują politykę zagraniczną ChRL oraz strategiczną rywalizację Chiny-USA.

Jakub Graca

Magister stosunków międzynarodowych na Uniwersytecie Jagiellońskim; studiował także filologię orientalną (specjalność: arabistyka). Analityk Centrum Inicjatyw Międzynarodowych (Warszawa) oraz Instytutu Nowej Europy. Zainteresowania badawcze: Stany Zjednoczone (z naciskiem na politykę zagraniczną), relacje transatlantyckie.

Patryk Szczotka

Absolwent filologii dalekowschodniej ze specjalnością chińską na Uniwersytecie Wrocławskim oraz student kierunku double degree China and International Relations na Aalborg University oraz University of International Relations (国际关系学院) w Pekinie. Jego zainteresowania naukowe to relacje polityczne i gospodarcze UE-ChRL oraz dyplomacja.

The programme's team:

Marcin Chruściel

Programme director. Graduate of PhD studies in Political Science at the University of Wroclaw and Master studies in International Relations at the Jagiellonian University in Krakow. President of the Management Board at the Institute of New Europe.

PhD Artur Bartoszewicz

Chairman of the Institute's Programme Board. Doctor of Economic Sciences at the SGH Warsaw School of Economics. Expert in the field of public policy, including state and economic strategies. Expert at the National Centre for Research and Development and the Digital Poland Projects Centre.

Michał Banasiak

He specializes in relationship of sports and politics. Author of analysis, comments and interviews in the field of sports diplomacy and international politics. Former Polsat News and Polish Television’s foreign desk journalist.

Maciej Pawłowski

Expert on migration, economics and politics of Mediterranean countries. In the period of 2018-2020 PISM Analyst on Southern Europe. Author of various articles in Polish and foreign press about Spain, Italy, Greece, Egypt and Maghreb countries. Since September 2020 lives in North Africa (Egypt, Algeria).

Jędrzej Błaszczak

Graduate of Law at the University of Silesia. His research interests focus on the Three Seas Initiative and politics in Bulgaria. He acquired experience at the European Foundation of Human Rights in Vilnius, the Center for the Study of Democracy in Sofia, and in Polish embassies in Tehran and Tbilisi.

PhD Aleksander Olech

Programme director. Visiting lecturer at the Baltic Defence College, graduate of the European Academy of Diplomacy and War Studies University. His main research interests include terrorism, international cooperation for security in Eastern Europe and the role of NATO and the EU with regard to hybrid threats.

PhD Agnieszka Rogozińska

Member of the Institute's Programme Board. Doctor of Social Sciences in the discipline of Political Science. Editorial secretary of the academic journals "Politics & Security" and "Independence: journal devoted to Poland's recent history". Her research interests focus on security issues.

Aleksy Borówka

PhD candidate at the Faculty of Social Sciences in the University of Wroclaw, the President of the Polish National Associations of PhD Candidates in 2020. The author of dozen of scientific papers, concerning security studies, political science, administration, international relations. Laureate of the I, II and III International Geopolitical Olympiad.

Karolina Siekierka

Graduate of International Relations specializing in Security and Strategic Studies at University of Warsaw. Erasmus student at the Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1) and the Institut d’Etudes Politique de Paris (Sciences Po Paris). Her research areas include human rights, climate change and armed conflicts.

Stanisław Waszczykowski

Reserve non-commissioned officer. Master's degree student in International Security and Diplomacy at the War Studies University in Warsaw, former trainee at the National Security Bureau. His research interests include issues related to UN peacekeeping operations and the security of Ukraine.

Leon Pińczak

A second-degree student at the University of Warsaw, majoring in international relations. A journalist of the Polish language edition of Belsat. Interested in the post-Soviet area, with a particular focus on Russian internal politics and Russian doctrines - foreign, defense and information-cybernetic.

Łukasz Kobierski

Programme director. Deputy President of the Management Board. Scholarship holder at the Daniel Morgan Graduate School of National Security in Washington and an expert in the field of international relations. Graduate of the University of Warsaw and the Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń

PhD Joanna Siekiera

International lawyer, Doctor of social sciences, postdoctor at the Faculty of Law, University of Bergen, Norway. She was a scholarship holder of the New Zealand government at the Victoria University of Wellington, Institute of Cultural Diplomacy in Germany, Institut de relations internationales et stratégiques in France.

Paweł Paszak

Graduate of International Relations (specialisation in East Asian Studies) from the University of Warsaw and scholarship holder at the University of Kent (UK) and Hainan University (China). PhD candidate at the University of Warsaw and the War Studies University. His research areas include the foreign policy of China and the strategic rivalry between China and the US in the Indo-Pacific.

Jakub Graca

Master of International Relations at the Jagiellonian University in Krakow. He also studied Arabic therein. An analyst at the Center for International Initiatives (Warsaw) and the Institute of New Europe. Research interests: United States (mainly foreign policy), transatlantic relations.

Patryk Szczotka

A graduate of Far Eastern Philology with a specialization in China Studies at the University of Wroclaw and a student of a double degree “China and International Relations” at Aalborg University and University of International Relations (国际关系学院) in Beijing. His research interests include EU-China political and economic relations, as well as diplomacy.

Three Seas Think Tanks Hub is a platform of cooperation among different think tanks based in 3SI member countries. Their common goal is to strengthen public debate and understanding of the Three Seas region seen from the political, economic and security perspective. The project aims at exchanging ideas, research and publications on the region’s potential and challenges.

Members

The Baltic Security Foundation (Latvia)

The BSF promotes the security and defense of the Baltic Sea region. It gathers security experts from the region and beyond, provides a platform for discussion and research, promotes solutions that lead to stronger regional security in the military and other areas.

The Institute for Politics and Society (Czech Republic)

The Institute analyses important economic, political, and social areas that affect today’s society. The mission of the Institute is to cultivate the Czech political and public sphere through professional and open discussion.

Nézöpont Institute (Hungary)

The Institute aims at improving Hungarian public life and public discourse by providing real data, facts and opinions based on those. Its primary focus points are Hungarian youth, media policy and Central European cooperation.

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (Austria)

The wiiw is one of the principal centres for research on Central, East and Southeast Europe with 50 years of experience. Over the years, the Institute has broadened its expertise, increasing its regional coverage – to European integration, the countries of Wider Europe and selected issues of the global economy.

The International Institute for Peace (Austria)

The Institute strives to address the most topical issues of the day and promote dialogue, public engagement, and a common understanding to ensure a holistic approach to conflict resolution and a durable peace. The IIP functions as a platform to promote peace and non-violent conflict resolution across the world.

The Institute for Regional and International Studies (Bulgaria)

The IRIS initiates, develops and implements civic strategies for democratic politics at the national, regional and international level. The Institute promotes the values of democracy, civil society, freedom and respect for law and assists the process of deepening Bulgarian integration in NATO and the EU.

The European Institute of Romania

EIR is a public institution whose mission is to provide expertise in the field of European Affairs to the public administration, the business community, the social partners and the civil society. EIR’s activity is focused on four key domains: research, training, communication, translation of the EHRC case-law.

The Institute of New Europe (Poland)

The Institute is an advisory and analytical non-governmental organisation active in the fields of international politics, international security and economics. The Institute supports policy-makers by providing them with expert opinions, as well as creating a platform for academics, publicists, and commentators to exchange ideas.

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