Ksawery Stawiński, Adam Jankowski
01.04 – Russians in the Sahel and Namibia
While the war in the East continues, Russians remain highly active in the Global South – particularly in Africa. Foreign ministers from the member states of the Sahel Alliance (Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso) recently visited Moscow. These African officials are part of the military juntas that have seized power in their respective countries. The Russians have offered them military aid in the form of equipment and training in exchange for access to natural resources.
The Sahel States Alliance (SSA) was established primarily as a response to the jihadist uprising in Mali, which spread throughout the region. It is a military alliance guaranteeing mutual armed assistance to any member state under attack. The organization seeks economic and security integration, as well as independence from France and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). Anti-Western sentiment in the SSA is prompting economic actors from the Global North (including China) to leave the region, making way for increased Russian influence. The Kremlin is essentially purchasing extraction rights by selling military power. A joint military unit to fight terrorism is in the works. Interestingly, the SSA countries claim that terrorists in the Sahel are being supported by Ukraine.
Meanwhile, in the south of the continent – Windhoek is eager to cooperate with the Kremlin on a different front. Namibia produces 10% of the world’s uranium, while Russia holds 40% of global uranium enrichment capacity. Namibia’s goal is to acquire know-how from Russia on uranium processing. Building such an industry would provide jobs and increase income for Namibians, while also helping Russia achieve its objective of securing 25% of global uranium supplies by 2030. Since the start of the invasion, the Kremlin has seen a decline in foreign nuclear-sector investments. Namibia is willing to work with Russia because, unlike the West, it does not pressure the country into adopting green energy, which Namibia currently cannot afford.
11.04 – Ramstein – (ohne) Amerika
During a meeting of the Ramstein Group in Brussels – a coalition of 51 countries united in their support for Ukraine – an agreement was reached to provide Kyiv with over €21 billion in aid. Due to the number of countries involved, no specific completion date was set. The largest contributors were Germany – pledging €11 billion by 2029 – and the UK – offering €4.5 billion by the end of 2025, along with an additional €450 million in emergency military support that same year. €100 million will go toward refurbishing 3,000 Ukrainian vehicles, restoring them for frontline use.
Notably, the United States, which previously led the group’s meetings, was not in charge this time. The highest-ranking U.S. representative was Pete Hegseth, who did not assume a leadership role. Leadership of the group’s operations has now shifted to the UK and Germany. The U.S. will remain involved, but only as a participant.
The meeting focused heavily on supporting Ukraine’s air defense system, which remains its Achilles’ heel. According to Euro News, “since March, Russia has launched over 10,000 glide bombs and around 100 combat drones daily” onto Ukrainian territory. Estimates of aid sent since the start of the full-scale invasion until April 11 range between €125 and €145 billion.
13.04 – Bloody Palm Sunday
The second Sunday in April became the deadliest day for Ukrainian civilians since the 2023 massacre in the village of Hroza, where a missile killed 59 civilians gathered at a restaurant and nearby store. This time, the target was the city of Sumy, located just 50 kilometers from Russia. The victims were residents on their way to celebrate Palm Sunday in local churches. 35 people were killed and 177 injured.
The Russians are employing a horrifying tactic against civilians – the double strike. The first missile aims not only to kill but also to draw in emergency responders. The second, more deadly strike then hits the rescuers and those gathering at the site of the first attack. This is what happened in Sumy – an aerial explosion scattered shrapnel that injured civilians.
The choice of date – Palm Sunday, commemorating Christ’s arrival in Jerusalem – only highlights the brutality of the act. It is one of many daily tragedies in Ukraine. However, the attack occurred just two days after Putin met with a White House envoy, after which U.S. official Richard Witkoff suggested that peace negotiations were progressing positively. Trump called the attack a “mistake.” While international organizations condemned the atrocity, Bloomberg reported that the U.S. blocked the G7 from issuing a similar statement.
The Sumy, Kherson, and Poltava regions declared periods of mourning.
19.04 – Putin announces a false Easter ceasefire in Ukraine
Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a unilateral ceasefire in Ukraine for Orthodox Easter. According to his order, military actions were to be suspended from 6:00 PM Moscow time (3:00 PM GMT) on Saturday until midnight on Sunday.
Putin expressed hope that Ukraine would also adhere to this ceasefire but emphasized that Russian armed forces should be prepared to repel any provocations from the enemy. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy responded skeptically to the Russian proposal, noting that despite the announced ceasefire, Russian forces continued artillery attacks and offensive operations on several fronts.
Zelenskyy pointed out that Russia had rejected an earlier proposal for a 30-day ceasefire put forward by US President Donald Trump, which undermined the credibility of the current initiative. In the first hours after the ceasefire announcement, air raid sirens were heard in Kyiv and surrounding areas, while Ukrainian air forces were repelling Russian air attacks.
Zelenskyy described the Russian proposal as “another attempt by Putin to play with human lives” and stressed the lack of trust in Moscow’s declarations. In response to Russia’s unilateral ceasefire announcement, Ukraine expressed readiness to reciprocate such a move only in the case of a full and unconditional cessation of hostilities. Zelenskyy emphasized that only a prolonged ceasefire could form the basis for building trust and further peace talks.
28.04 – Russians demand direct initiative from Kyiv regarding peace talks
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that the initiative for direct peace talks should come from Ukraine. He emphasized that current legal regulations in Ukraine prevent negotiations with President Vladimir Putin. Peskov noted that Russia is ready for talks, but Ukraine must signal its willingness to start them. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, in an interview with the Brazilian newspaper “O Globo,” outlined conditions that Moscow considers essential for reaching a peace agreement.
These include Ukraine’s renunciation of NATO membership, demilitarization and “denazification” of the country, and international recognition of Russian control over four Ukrainian regions that Russia has partially occupied since 2022. In response to these proposals, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that the first step toward peace should be an unconditional and complete ceasefire by Russia.
In his evening speech, he emphasized that Ukraine would not accept limited ceasefires, such as the three-day ceasefire proposed by Putin for May 8-10, coinciding with the anniversary of the victory over Nazism. Zelenskyy stated that the ceasefire should occur immediately and unconditionally to protect human lives. The United States, through Secretary of State Marco Rubio, expressed support for a permanent ceasefire and a peaceful resolution to the conflict.
The White House announced that President Donald Trump is concerned about the lack of progress in negotiations and expects concrete actions toward ending the war. Despite the declared willingness for talks, both sides maintain differing positions on the conditions for initiating negotiations.
Russia demands that its territorial and political demands be met, while Ukraine insists on an immediate ceasefire and respect for its sovereignty. The situation remains tense, and the prospects for a quick agreement are uncertain.
29.04 – Pyongyang officially confirms the participation of its troops in the war in Ukraine on the Russian side
Pyongyang officially confirmed the deployment of its soldiers to Russia to support military operations against Ukraine. According to the North Korean agency KCNA, the decision to send troops was made by leader Kim Jong Un under the framework of a comprehensive strategic partnership treaty signed with Russian President Vladimir Putin in 2024.
North Korean authorities described their troops’ involvement in the fighting as “an important contribution to liberating Russian territories occupied by Ukraine,” referring to the Kursk region. According to KCNA, approximately 14,000 North Korean soldiers have been deployed in Russia, including 3,000 as reinforcements. North Korean authorities emphasized that their troops treated Russian territory as their own, which was meant to demonstrate the strong alliance between the two countries.
Kim Jong Un called the soldiers fighting “heroes” and “representatives of the honor of the homeland.”The military cooperation between North Korea and Russia has raised concerns in the international community. According to South Korean intelligence reports, North Korean soldiers fighting on Russia’s side in Ukraine have suffered significant casualties, with around 4,700 killed or wounded.
Furthermore, in exchange for military support, North Korea receives advanced military technologies from Russia, as well as assistance in modernizing its energy and tourism sectors. Experts fear that the combat experience gained by North Korean soldiers and access to modern technologies could strengthen North Korea’s military potential, which poses a threat to security in the Asia-Pacific region.
This cooperation could also impact the balance of power in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, increasing pressure on Ukraine and its allies. In light of the growing collaboration between Pyongyang and Moscow, the international community faces the challenge of responding to new threats to regional and global stability.
30.04 – Putin declares openness to peace talks with Ukraine but warns against haste
Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed readiness to engage in peace talks with Ukraine, but the Kremlin emphasized that achieving a quick agreement is unlikely due to the complexity of the conflict. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov noted that despite intense discussions with the United States, many issues remain unresolved, which hinders rapid progress in negotiations.
Putin expressed a desire for direct talks with Ukraine, but Kyiv did not respond to this proposal. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha stated that Ukraine is ready for peace talks, provided that Russia agrees to an unconditional ceasefire. The United States, through Secretary of State Marco Rubio, called on both sides to present concrete proposals to end the war, warning that otherwise, the US would withdraw from its role as a mediator.
President Donald Trump expressed belief that Putin is aiming to end the conflict, despite recent attacks on Ukrainian cities. Meanwhile, Russia announced a three-day ceasefire from May 8 to 10, to mark the 80th anniversary of the victory over Nazi Germany. Ukraine criticized this proposal as insufficient and demanded an immediate and longer-lasting truce.
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