Ksawery Stawiński, Adam Jankowski
03.02 Life and Death of Armen Sarkisyan
A bomb exploded in a luxury residential area along the Moscow River in the city of Moscow. The explosion killed Armen Sarkisyan, also known as Armen Gorłowski. Originally from Armenia, Sarkisyan grew up in Donbas and rose to prominence as a high-profile criminal, amassing a vast fortune. He collaborated with Ukrainian authorities, including organizing militias that dispersed demonstrators in Kyiv during the Revolution of Dignity.
However, when war broke out in Donbas in 2014 between Ukraine and the so-called separatists, Sarkisyan was added to Ukraine’s most-wanted list. Despite this, he continued his criminal activities in the region. He became one of Ukraine’s most notorious criminals, particularly in Donbas.
Following Russia’s full-scale invasion, the FSB recruited Sarkisyan for a major operation. He was tasked with establishing the Arbat battalion (short for Armenian Battalion), which operated on behalf of the Russian army. Despite its name, the battalion largely consisted of prisoners from eastern Ukraine. Sarkisyan was also appointed by the FSB to oversee the prison system in Russian-occupied territories.
After Prigozhin’s death, Arbat became one of the units that absorbed Wagner Group soldiers left without leadership. Although no official statement from Ukraine has claimed responsibility for Sarkisyan’s assassination, the circumstances strongly suggest otherwise. The modus operandi closely resembles the assassination of Igor Kirillov—the man responsible for orchestrating Russia’s chemical warfare against Ukraine.
With this latest attack, it is clear that the Kremlin’s military leadership can no longer feel safe in Moscow.
07.02 Baltic States Cut Ties with Russia
On February 7, the agreement between the Baltic states and Moscow regarding electricity transmission from Russia to Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia expired. In 2024, the Baltic states decided not to renew their contract with the Russian energy supplier.
Until recently, the Baltics, Russia, and Belarus were connected through an energy agreement known as BRELL, established during the Soviet era when all these states were part of a single political entity. This post-Soviet relic effectively made the Baltic states dependent on the Kremlin’s political decisions for their energy security. As a result, they chose to sever ties with the system.
In 2018, Vilnius, Riga, and Tallinn announced their intention to disconnect from BRELL and integrate with the European Union’s energy network—CESA (Continental Europe Synchronous Area). This transition was completed in February 2025, enabled by the LitPol energy link connecting Lithuania to Poland.
Due to numerous attacks on critical energy infrastructure across Europe, allegedly involving Russian operatives, the new connection is under strict protection. Polish Electricity Networks helicopters routinely patrol the route to ensure its security.
Despite initial concerns among Baltic citizens, there is currently no indication that energy prices have risen due to the shift in suppliers. Instead, price stability is more threatened by the actions of mysterious ships, whose crews frequently “forget” to raise their anchors, damaging undersea cables in the process.
12.02 A Call to a Friend
Trump announced on his social media platform, Truth Social, that he had a phone conversation with Vladimir Putin. The two leaders discussed their shared history, current political affairs, and the necessity of ending the war in Ukraine. They also announced plans for reciprocal presidential visits to the United States and Russia. Trump expressed strong optimism about initiating cooperation with the Russian Federation. His post also listed members of the U.S. administration who would be responsible for conducting the negotiations.
The conversation lasted an hour and a half and is seen as a turning point in warming relations between the U.S. and Russia.
The Kremlin, through its spokesman Dmitry Peskov, commented on the discussion between the two presidents. Russia considers the United States its most important interlocutor in peace talks. While Ukraine is expected to join the discussions, Europe has been excluded. This stance generated cautious optimism in the Kremlin. The first meeting between American and Russian representatives has been scheduled to take place in Riyadh.
In an interview with The Economist, Volodymyr Zelensky responded to the announced peace plan. When asked whether he expects to see how it might take shape, he replied that he doubts such a plan even exists. According to Zelensky, any agreement can only be reached in consultation with all parties actively involved in the conflict. Therefore, he firmly rejects the idea of a ceasefire imposed on Kyiv by Washington and Moscow.
These developments set the stage for discussions at the Munich Security Conference, which was later analyzed in an article by the Institute for New Europe titled Europo quo vadis?
12.02 Russian Base in Sudan
The Sudanese Minister of Foreign Affairs met with Sergei Lavrov in Moscow to discuss the construction of a naval military base on the western coast of the Red Sea. The ministers of both countries reached an agreement, granting Russia permission to deploy its navy in Port Sudan.
This marks a strategic victory for Moscow, which had been seeking approval to establish a military presence in Sudan since 2019, when discussions first took place with then-President Omar al-Bashir, who was later overthrown. The change in power in Khartoum forced both sides to renegotiate the agreement, which was ultimately finalized in 2020 under Sudan’s new leadership.
In 2023, Sudan descended into civil war, a conflict that continues to this day, further complicating Moscow’s ambitions. Despite these challenges, the agreement has now been sealed. Russia secured a 25-year lease to construct and operate a military base in Port Sudan. The base will accommodate up to 300 personnel and will be capable of hosting warships, including nuclear-powered vessels.
The agreement holds particular significance in light of the December coup d’état in Syria. The loss of power by Bashar al-Assad meant that Russia lost a key regional ally, whom it had actively supported during years of civil war. The Tartus military base in Syria was Russia’s only overseas naval facility, and now, with Assad gone, Port Sudan may partially assume its strategic role.
This shift alters the geography of Russian military operations, moving its naval presence from the Mediterranean to the Red Sea. While this means a diminished military role in the Middle East, Russia strengthens its foothold in Africa, positioning itself for greater regional influence.
18.02 – U.S.-Russia Diplomatic Meeting in Riyadh
On February 18, 2025, a high-level diplomatic meeting took place in Riyadh between delegations from the United States and Russia. The discussions aimed at improving bilateral relations and formulating a strategy to end the conflict in Ukraine. This meeting represented the most extensive diplomatic dialogue between the two countries since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
The U.S. delegation was led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, and President Donald Trump’s senior advisor Steve Witkoff. They described the meeting as “positive, constructive, and very solid.” On the Russian side, attendees included Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, President Vladimir Putin’s international affairs advisor Yuri Ushakov, and Kirill Dmitriev, CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF).
During the 4.5-hour discussions, the delegations reached agreements on three key issues:
- The establishment of diplomatic teams to enhance operations in Moscow and Washington.
- The creation of high-level task forces to define the “parameters of the conflict” in Ukraine.
- The identification of economic cooperation opportunities that could emerge after the resolution of the conflict, which the U.S. delegation referred to as a “potentially historic economic opportunity” for Russia.
Additionally, Sergey Lavrov announced a planned meeting of deputy foreign ministers, intended to lay the groundwork for a potential summit between Presidents Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin. However, no specific date for such a summit was set.
President Donald Trump’s decision to engage in direct talks with Vladimir Putin—without the involvement of Ukraine or European allies—has sparked concern in European capitals. Many European leaders worry that such negotiations could result in agreements unfavorable to Ukraine and jeopardize regional stability.
While the United States and Russia continue their negotiations, Europe is working to maintain unity and ensure that its influence remains central in key decisions regarding Ukraine’s future and the security of the continent.
23.02 – The European Union Adopts the 16th Package of Sanctions Against Russia
On February 23, 2025, the European Union approved its 16th package of sanctions against Russia, aimed at further weakening the Russian war machine and strengthening support for Ukraine.
Poland played a key role in the negotiations, with its representatives leading the talks in Brussels. The new restrictions target 84 individuals and entities, including companies from China and North Korea that support Kremlin operations.
The sanctions focus on:
- Arms companies supplying the Russian military,
- Entities linked to the so-called “shadow fleet” transporting Russian oil,
- Additional measures to prevent the circumvention of previous sanctions, thereby enhancing their effectiveness.
Minister of Foreign Affairs Radosław Sikorski announced that permanent representatives of EU member states had reached an agreement on the new sanctions package. The final adoption by the Foreign Affairs Council is expected to take place on the third anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Despite these measures, Russia continues to find ways to bypass the restrictions. A key example is Russian plywood, which still reaches warehouses in Europe, revealing loopholes in enforcement. This demonstrates that Moscow has adapted to evade sanctions and that some entities in Europe remain willing to cooperate with Russia, undermining the effectiveness of the imposed restrictions.
24.02 – The United Kingdom Announces the Largest Sanctions Package Against Russia Since the Start of the Full-Scale War
Three years after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the United Kingdom has announced its largest sanctions package since 2022, targeting individuals and entities supporting Russian aggression. The new measures affect more than 100 entities deemed crucial to Russia’s war machine.
The sanctions focus on disrupting Russian military supply chains, imposing restrictions on:
- Manufacturers and suppliers of mechanical tools, electronics, and dual-use goods, such as microprocessors used in weapons systems.
- Entities based in Central Asia, Turkey, Thailand, India, and China, with China being Russia’s largest supplier of critical military goods.
Additionally, the sanctions address Russia’s growing cooperation with North Korea. Measures have been imposed on North Korean Defense Minister No Kwang Chol and other high-ranking officials responsible for sending over 11,000 North Korean soldiers to Russia. British sources describe these forces as “cannon fodder”, reporting that they have already suffered over 4,000 casualties.
Another key aspect of the sanctions package is restricting the transfer of advanced technologies. Sanctions have been placed on 13 Russian entities, including LLC Grant-Trade, whose owner Marat Mustafayev and his sister Dinara Mustafayeva used the company to smuggle advanced European technologies into Russia, directly supporting the war effort.
For the first time, the UK has leveraged new legal powers to sanction foreign financial institutions aiding Russia’s war machine. These sanctions target Kyrgyzstan’s OJSC Keremet Bank, aiming to disrupt Russia’s access to the international financial system for funding its military operations.
British Foreign Secretary David Lammy emphasized that:
“Every disruption of military supply lines, every blocked ruble, and every exposure of individuals supporting Putin’s aggression is a step toward a just and lasting peace.”
He also stated that lasting peace can only be achieved through strength and that these new sanctions represent another step in that direction.
The Russian embassy in London condemned the UK’s latest sanctions, calling them “illegal” and arguing that many of the targeted entities have no direct connection to the conflict in Ukraine.
This sanctions package aims to further weaken Russia’s war machine while bolstering Ukraine’s efforts to secure peace and stability in the region.
25.02 – Aleksandr Dugin Proposes Reforms to Political Science Education in Russia
Aleksandr Dugin, a well-known Russian philosopher and geopolitical strategist, has presented a proposal aimed at transforming political science education in Russian universities. The goal of this initiative is to reform the teaching of political science to better align with Russia’s cultural and historical identity.
Dugin’s team argues that the current political science curriculum in Russia is dominated by “Americocentrism,” which, in their view, promotes neoliberal ideas. They claim that this approach is harmful, as it shapes attitudes that contradict Russian civilization and culture.
As part of the proposed reform, the curriculum would focus on:
- “Strengthening civic-mindedness” and fostering patriotic attitudes.
- Prioritizing state and public life over private interests.
- Subordinating individual concerns to the values and interests of the homeland.
- Emphasizing “Orthodoxy, autocracy, and nationality” as the foundations of Russian statehood.
Dugin’s proposal has received mixed reactions. The project reflects the growing influence of Eurasian ideology in Russian academic and political discourse. It is part of broader efforts to redefine Russia’s national identity and its position on the international stage.
27.02 – Competition for Resource Extraction Amidst War: Russia Offers the U.S. Cooperation in Rare Earth Metals Mining
Vladimir Putin has announced Russia’s willingness to cooperate with foreign partners, including the United States, in the extraction of its rare earth metal deposits. This offer also extends to the eastern Ukrainian territories annexed by Russia. Putin stated: “We are happy to work with foreign partners, including American ones. The same applies to our new territories. We are ready to involve foreign partners in what we call our new, historically ours, territories that have returned to the Russian Federation.”U.S. President Donald Trump responded positively to this proposal, saying: “We would also like to buy minerals on Russian soil if possible. They have very good rare earth metal resources, just like Ukraine. And oil, and gas. It’s a great thing. It’s also great for Russia. We can do business there. They have very valuable lands that are not being used.” However, Putin’s offer has been met with criticism from Russian military bloggers, who expressed their dissatisfaction with the prospect of cooperation with the U.S. in this sector. For instance, the popular blogger Dva Mayory remarked: “To be honest, we missed the moment when the Yankees’ wild desire to steal Russian natural wealth suddenly turned into a mutually beneficial partnership with our American ‘partners’.” Russia possesses the world’s fifth-largest reserves of rare earth metals, estimated at 28.7 million tons, with 3.8 million tons currently being mined. The country aims to significantly expand its rare earth metals industry and plans to become one of the top five global producers, capturing up to 12% of the market share by 2030. However, the Russian rare earth metals industry faces challenges such as low domestic demand and competition from China, which dominates global production. The proposal to collaborate with the U.S. on rare earth metal extraction may be an attempt to overcome these obstacles and strengthen Russia’s position in the global market for these critical resources. If the United States were to engage in such cooperation, it could lead to a significant shift in the global supply chain of rare earth elements, which are essential for high-tech industries, including defense, electronics, and renewable energy. Currently, China controls about 70% of global rare earth metal production and an even larger share of the refining capacity. A potential U.S.-Russia partnership could reduce American dependence on Chinese rare earth supplies and provide Russia with much-needed economic benefits amidst ongoing sanctions and geopolitical isolation. However, any agreement would likely face strong resistance from U.S. lawmakers and NATO allies, who view Russia as an adversary. Economic cooperation in such a strategic sector could also raise concerns about security risks, particularly in light of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. For now, Putin’s proposal remains speculative, but it signals Russia’s strategic interest in securing foreign investments and breaking its growing economic isolation. The reaction from Washington and its allies will determine whether this unexpected offer leads to tangible negotiations or remains a symbolic maneuver in the broader geopolitical struggle between Russia and the West.
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