Ksawery Stawiński, Adam Jankowski
08.05.25 – Mineral Deal
On May 8th, the Ukrainian parliament ratified the so-called Mineral Deal. The official, less catchy name of this document is: Agreement between the Government of Ukraine and the Government of the United States of America on the Establishment of the American-Ukrainian Investment Fund for Reconstruction. The title of this document explains its purpose.
The agreement, announced already at the end of February, became part of the effort that the new US president undertook in recent months to end the war. Its form, provisions, and general shape underwent transformations over the last few weeks. It’s worth noting that Zelensky was supposed to sign this document already at the end of February. However, the scandal that erupted in the White House during the conference between Trump, Pence, and Zelensky caused the agreement not to be signed then. Fortunately for Ukraine, the final form of the Mineral Deal turned out to be more favorable for Kyiv compared to its original version.
The content of the document reflects Washington’s real approach to Ukraine. Donald Trump’s controversial statements and his frequent, unexpected changes in political decisions make him an especially difficult politician to analyze. Written commitments on paper more reliably represent the USA’s stance towards Kyiv.
In practice, the document establishes an investment fund in the form of a Limited Partnership, whose American side members include the International Development Finance Corporation, and on the Ukrainian side, the Agency for Public-Private Partnership under the Ministry of Economy.
Key political points:
- America aims to establish a free, secure, and independent Ukraine in a state of stable peace.
- International corporations can participate in the reconstruction process, but not those from countries supporting Russia in its conflict with Ukraine.
- America recognizes the Russian side as the aggressor and Moscow’s policy as the cause of the 2022 invasion and destruction on Ukrainian territory.
- Ukraine retains sovereignty over its natural resources.
- The agreement strengthens the alliance between the two countries and aims to lay the foundations for further actions to modernize Ukraine, improve its security situation, and bring it closer to the Western world.
Key business points:
- From the date of ratification, any military aid provided to Ukraine by the USA will be recognized as an increase in the American party’s capital contribution equal to the estimated value of the aid given (this acts as a form of “payment” for the aid provided to Ukraine by the Americans but does not apply to aid already sent).
- The Fund has the privilege to obtain information about potential investors seeking to raise capital for mineral extraction. The same right applies to “critical infrastructure” (highways, railways, power plants, etc.). If the Fund expresses interest in a given project, the investor is obliged to enter into business negotiations in good faith with the Fund. The investor is prohibited from offering better terms than those offered by the Fund to other potential contractors (effectively, the Fund has preferential access to all major investments in the country).
- If Ukraine wants to sell its minerals, the American side — if it so desires — has the right to negotiate with the Ukrainian side on market terms to buy the mineral. The Ukrainian side is not allowed to offer better terms to third parties than those proposed by the Americans (the USA gains the possibility to purchase mineral on preferential terms).
- Additionally, the Fund reserves the right to regulate sales to entities whose activities could harm its strategic interests (meaning Americans can regulate to whom and how much Ukraine sells its mineral).
- All these rules must comply with EU regulations (so as not to hinder Ukraine’s efforts to obtain EU membership).
The document lacks information on how the Fund will reinvest profits in the reconstruction of Ukraine (likely, the reconstruction will be driven by American companies eager to undertake lucrative projects with preferential access). The Ukrainian Minister of Economy announced that talks on this topic are ongoing. We can expect the agreement to be expanded in the coming months and new important documents to emerge. Ukraine would like to see 50 percent of the entire Fund’s profits, not just its share, reinvested in the country’s reconstruction.
In its current form, the political significance of the agreement outweighs its actual impact on the rules for mineral extraction and infrastructure development in Ukraine. Donald Trump secured “payment” for the aid provided to Kyiv. Zelensky, on the other hand, obtained an official commitment from the new administration to support his cause and stand on Ukraine’s side. Due to controversial statements coming from the White House, this was not entirely obvious until the Mineral Deal was concluded. In no way should this agreement be interpreted as a security guarantee.
09.05.2025 – Hungarian Spies in Ukrainian Zakarpattia
During the ongoing war in the east, the Ukrainian Security Service arrested two suspicious individuals in Zakarpattia. A man and a woman, Ukrainian nationals, allegedly acted as spies for Budapest on the western outskirts of their own country. The spies previously worked for the Ukrainian army, making their betrayal all the more painful for Kyiv. Their new supervisor was recently appointed as an officer of the Hungarian intelligence service, whose name was obtained by Ukrainian security during the investigation. The Hungarian’s identity has not been made public. Due to martial law in Ukraine, the two spies face life imprisonment.
Their tasks included:
- Monitoring the state of the Ukrainian army in Zakarpattia
- Identifying weak points of the Zakarpattia military
- Obtaining information about local residents’ reactions to a theoretical scenario of a Hungarian military invasion of the region.
The spies were, however, uncovered. This is the first case in Ukraine’s history where its services have dealt with a Hungarian espionage network. Budapest denies the Ukrainian narrative, calling it false and part of a broader anti-Hungarian policy by Kyiv used to stabilize its presence in Zakarpattia. As is typical for Eastern Europe, this region has a rich history and a mix of nationalities — currently part of Ukraine but home to a significant Hungarian minority densely inhabiting the western border area. The spy story aims to undermine trust in Hungary in western Ukraine and serves as a response to Hungary’s pursuit of a quick and “peaceful” end to the war, which includes blocking the European transfer of military equipment to the Donbas front.
Despite Budapest denying espionage allegations, it expelled two Ukrainian diplomats from its territory — in exchange for the imprisonment of the two spies it does not acknowledge. In response, the Ukrainian Foreign Minister stated that “based on the principle of reciprocity and our national interests […]” Kyiv gives Hungary 48 hours for two Hungarian diplomats to leave the country.
The dispute over Zakarpattia Hungarians between Ukraine and Hungary has long persisted. Budapest demands restoring some language rights for its compatriots, lost after the 2015 law change. Thanks to its privileged NATO and EU membership status, Hungary pressured Ukraine into some concessions, which Kyiv agreed to. However, the changes do not fully satisfy Budapest, and the fate of Hungarians in western Ukraine remains a bone of contention.
12.05.2025 – Russian Arson on Marywilska Street
The National Prosecutor’s Office issued a statement concerning the fire at the shopping center on Marywilska Street 44 in Warsaw. The facility burned almost completely one year before the statement. Until May 2025, the causes of the fire remained unknown. According to the prosecutor’s office: “The inspection area of the fire site covered 6 hectares. The shopping center housed 1,400 shops and service points rented by over 700 people.”
The fire was set on the orders of Russian intelligence. The arsonists acting on Kremlin orders were Oleksander V. and Daniil B., both holding Ukrainian citizenship. They belonged to a group responsible for a series of arsons throughout Europe, including one in Vilnius in 2024. Cooperation between Polish and Lithuanian prosecutors led to charges against Daniil B. for operating in an organized criminal group aimed at acts of terror and sabotage on behalf of the Russian Federation against the Republic of Poland. Daniil B. is in pre-trial detention in Lithuania. Oleksander V. is currently free but faces similar charges. A warrant and a European Arrest Order have been issued for him. Both men face sentences ranging from ten years to life imprisonment.
A year ago, besides the fire on Marywilska, a construction market in Warsaw was also set on fire. The modus operandi is the same as in the Żerań shopping center case — Stepan K., hired by Russian services, committed the sabotage act. Charges against him are similar to those against his collaborators. He is currently in pre-trial detention, the most severe measure Poland can apply to a suspect — confinement until the verdict.
The entire case fits the standardized modus operandi of Russian services. To avoid compromising their best spies, Russians find “contractors” for simple tasks. The assignments vary from graffiti painting to arson and even murder. Payment depends on the operation’s complexity, though Russians do not always fulfill their part. Although sabotage contractors often come from criminal environments, extremist political organizations, pro-Russian groups — access to whom is ensured by internet anonymity and social media — Russian diplomacy plays a significant role in Kremlin intelligence operations. Embassies and consulates are often the centers of Russian espionage in a given country. In Central and Eastern Europe, Prague and Vienna until recently upheld the notorious tradition of espionage centers for our part of the continent.
A few days after the prosecutor’s statement, the Polish Foreign Minister ordered the closure of the Russian consulate in Krakow. It’s unclear if this specific consulate was involved or if it is merely a political signal from Warsaw to the east. Poland had already closed the Russian consulate in Poznan in response to a (failed) arson attempt on the American PPG Industries factory in Wroclaw. After closing the Krakow consulate, Russia is left with only one consulate in Gdansk and its embassy in Warsaw. However, if the current trend continues, the days of the Gdansk consulate are likely numbered.
27.05.25. — Russia Conducts Large-Scale Modernization of Military Units Equipped with Nuclear Weapons
Russia is carrying out a large-scale modernization of underground missile silos that store strategic nuclear warheads. Journalists from the Danish investigative project Danwatch and the German magazine Der Spiegel discovered hundreds of detailed plans of these facilities, which were made publicly available in open databases.
This exposure revealed previously unknown details about the structure and equipment of Russian nuclear bases. The investigation, which began in the summer of 2024, granted access to over two million documents related to Russian military contracts. Despite Russia imposing restrictions on access to such information, the journalists managed to circumvent these limits using various digital technologies and a network of servers located in Russia, Kazakhstan, and Belarus.
The uncovered documents reveal details on the construction of new military facilities, including hundreds of new barracks, watchtowers, command centers, and warehouses, as well as kilometers of underground tunnels. The plans also include security systems such as triple rows of electric fences around the sites, seismic and radiation sensors, blast-resistant doors and windows, and alarm systems with contact magnets and infrared sensors. Some documents even specify locations for surveillance cameras inside buildings.
Although detailed plans of the bunkers storing nuclear warheads themselves were not disclosed, the available materials provide unprecedented insight into the structure and security of these facilities. Among the uncovered documents are plans for the facilities of the 621st and 368th missile regiments in the city of Jasny in the Orenburg region. These plans include information about room layouts, equipment, construction materials, and suppliers. Materials from Western companies such as cement, gypsum, adhesives, and insulation materials—including products from Knauf—were used in building these facilities.
Although Knauf publicly announced its intention to withdraw from the Russian market after the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, journalists claim that Knauf still controls its subsidiaries in Russia. Russian authorities have not yet commented on these revelations, but they may be compelled to strengthen nuclear infrastructure in response to the exposed security vulnerabilities.
However, implementing such changes involves high financial costs. This discovery is a significant reference point for assessing Russia’s defense capabilities and analyzing its nuclear strategy, especially amid the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
28.05.25. — Largest Prisoner Exchange Between Russia and Ukraine Since the Start of the Full-Scale Invasion
Russia and Ukraine have reached an agreement on a new prisoner exchange. At a meeting in Istanbul, both sides agreed to submit lists of candidates, with each side releasing around 1,000 prisoners, plus the possibility of an additional exchange of up to 200 people.
During a briefing, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that the exchange will also include the return of the bodies of fallen soldiers, which requires careful coordination. Zelensky shared that Ukraine provided Russia with a list of nearly 400 children held in captivity, but Russia agreed to consider the return of only ten of them.
If the scope of the exchange is confirmed, it would be the largest operation of this kind, surpassing several previous exchanges carried out by both sides—such as those involving 195, 175, or 150 prisoners at different stages of the conflict. Earlier agreements were often brokered with the help of third-party mediators like the United Arab Emirates, which played a key role as an intermediary.
29.05.25. — Former Military Officer and Participant of the “Time of Heroes” Program, Who Led the Air Operation to Capture Mariupol, Killed in Explosion in Stavropol
In Stavropol, former military officer Zaur Gurjiev was murdered. Until recently, Gurjiev served as the first deputy mayor of the city. He was also a participant in the “Vremya Geroev” (“Time of Heroes”) program, a government initiative aimed at transforming war veterans into state officials.
He died on May 29, 2025, under unexplained circumstances. Since 2019, Gurjiev had commanded the Russian army’s Air Operations Center and played a key role in military actions in Ukraine, including the operation to capture Mariupol and the fighting near Avdiivka. For his merits, he was awarded multiple honors.
His engagement was also recognized within the “Time of Heroes” program, which sought to attract war veterans to public and political life. Participants in the program were to receive not only administrative training but also real opportunities to hold positions in regional and local government structures. The program, announced by the Kremlin in March 2024, was prestigious—out of thousands of applicants, fewer than a hundred of the most distinguished were selected.
The authorities intended it to be a new elite—people with frontline experience, loyal to the state, and ready to help rebuild it. However, controversies arose soon after the recruitment was announced. Independent media and human rights organizations pointed out that some participants may have been involved in war crimes in Ukraine.
Critics also highlighted the opaque selection criteria and noted that some nominees had no actual frontline experience and were merely loyal local activists. Gurjiev’s death sparked numerous speculations.
Although the official cause of the murder has not yet been disclosed, there are suggestions that it may have had political or personal motives. Another hypothesis involves conflicts of interest within local government, where the introduction of war veterans may have caused tensions.
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