The Three Seas Initiative (3SI), a regional cooperation format connecting 13 Central European countries, is entering a new phase. The tenth, jubilee summit in Warsaw in 2025 is not only a symbolic closure of a decade of existence but above all an opportunity for an in-depth analysis of past achievements and future challenges. In the face of the changing political reality, the election of the US President, the growing role of Central Europe, and new economic challenges, 3SI must prove its effectiveness and ability to adapt.
Three Seas: Building Bridges Between the North and South of the EU
The Three Seas Initiative is a format for international regional cooperation, bringing together 13 Central European countries located in the basins of the Adriatic, Baltic and Black Seas. These include: Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Greece, Lithuania, Latvia, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia and Hungary. The 3SI concept was born in 2015 on the initiative of the presidents of Poland and Croatia, and the first summit, with the participation of 12 presidents, took place a year later in Dubrovnik. Greece joined the Initiative in 2023.
All 3SI member states are also members of the European Union. The main goal of the Initiative is to strengthen the economic cohesion of the region through infrastructure development in three key areas: energy, transport and digitalization. 3SI aims to build cross-border infrastructure, facilitating connections between the north and south of the European Union. This format also functions as a flexible forum for cooperation, based on meetings at the presidential level. Its goal is not only to strengthen ties between member states but also to support contacts and projects implemented by businesses and non-governmental organizations.
The first Three Seas Initiative summit was held in 2016 in Dubrovnik. Since then, 3SI summits have been organized annually in various member states. Each summit is held under the auspices of the informal presidency of the host country, which has the right to decide on the agenda and program of the meeting. It should be emphasized that despite the presidential nature of 3SI, cooperation within its framework focuses mainly on government activities. Therefore, it is important to expand cooperation also at the government level[1].
2024: Support for Ukraine in Focus
In 2024, the Three Seas Initiative summit in Vilnius, taking place in the shadow of the war in Ukraine, was dominated by the topic of regional security. Lithuania, as the host, emphasized the growing threat from Russia, calling for the strengthening of NATO’s eastern flank and the Eastern Partnership[2]. The summit was attended by the presidents of Lithuania (Gitanas Nausėda), Bulgaria (Rumen Radew), Czech Republic (Petr Pavel), Estonia (Alar Karis), Latvia (Edgars Rinkēvičs), Poland (Andrzej Duda), Romania (Klaus Iohannis) and Hungary (Tamás Sulyok). Greece was represented by Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and Croatia by Andrej Plenković. The meeting was also attended by the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the Prime Minister of Moldova Dorin Recean[3].
In the declaration adopted at the summit, the Participants unanimously condemned Russian aggression, demanding the isolation of Moscow in the international arena and the use of frozen assets for the reconstruction of Ukraine. According to the declaration: We continue to resolutely condemn Russia’s unprovoked, unjustified and illegal war against Ukraine and its people. We reaffirm our unwavering support for Ukraine, its sovereignty and territorial integrity within its internationally recognized borders. In addition to security issues, the summit focused on strengthening economic cooperation within the 3SI. The summit emphasized the importance of infrastructure projects, such as Via Carpatia and Rail Baltica, not only for economic development but also for military mobility in the event of an escalation of the conflict. Activities for energy security were also continued, pointing to the strategic importance of projects such as GIPL and Baltic Pipe[4].
The Vilnius summit brought a number of concrete decisions. Japan joined the group of strategic partners, becoming the fourth entity with this status. A letter of intent was signed on the establishment of the second Three Seas Initiative Investment Fund, and the establishment of the 3SI Innovation Fund in cooperation with the European Investment Fund was announced. The List of Priority Projects has been expanded to include projects from Moldova and Ukraine. The Business Forum gathered a record number of nearly 900 participants, and registration was closed earlier than planned due to high interest. For the first time in the history of the summits, cooperation was expanded to include a strictly scientific dimension – an official scientific conference was held, organized by the Three Seas Initiative Research Center at the Institute of Political Studies of the Polish Academy of Sciences in cooperation with the Lithuanian Academy of Sciences and the University of Lodz[5].
The Three Seas Initiative from the Polish Perspective
From the Polish perspective, a number of important decisions were also made. Due to the change of government, the coordination of the Three Seas Initiative was entirely taken over by the Secretariat for the Three Seas in the Chancellery of the President, and the position of Government Plenipotentiary for the Three Seas Initiative, which was created by virtue of the Bucharest declaration of 2018, disappeared from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The removal of the Plenipotentiary’s function weakens the coordination of intergovernmental activities, because similar functions operate in other countries at various levels, e.g. in Lithuania, it is the ambassador, in Romania the deputy minister of foreign affairs, and in Greece the director of the department.
It is difficult to expect harmonious coordination between the two centres of power in Poland in the context of the summit in April 2025 due to the upcoming presidential elections in May 2025. A positive signal may be the position of the Polish government presented during one of the meetings of the foreign affairs committee. Deputy Minister Władysław Bartoszewski positively assessed the Three Seas Initiative, emphasizing its growing importance, especially in the context of changes in regional political dynamics, such as the weakening of the Visegrad Group[6].
3SI, initially viewed with scepticism, is gaining value and is appreciated by the current government. The Deputy Minister pointed to the potential of 3SI in terms of economic development, using the region’s potential and strengthening international cooperation. He noted that 3SI, due to the larger number of member states, could be an alternative to the Visegrad Group, enabling the building of coalitions in the European Council and constituting an important element of the Polish presidency of the EU. He emphasized the usefulness of 3SI, the common economic interests of the countries of the region and the need for further development of cooperation within the Initiative. The Deputy Minister also added that 3SI strengthens the northern dimension of Polish foreign policy in the Baltic and Nordic direction, which is particularly important in the context of Finland and Sweden’s accession to NATO and the growing role of the Baltic Sea in ensuring energy security for Poland and the region.
We already know today that despite the Polish presidency of the European Union, the government has not decided to organize any significant meeting of leaders in Poland, such as the European Council summit, the EU-US meeting, or the EU-Eastern Partnership. In this context, the Three Seas Initiative summit will be the most important international summit in the country in the entire 2025.
Engagement in the Development of the Three Seas Initiative During the US Presidency
The United States has expressed strong support for the Three Seas Initiative from the very beginning, seeing it as a tool for strengthening security and stability in Central Europe, as well as counteracting the influence of Russia and China. The initiative is seen as a strategic tool for promoting democracy and free market principles, as well as building stronger transatlantic ties.
The election of the 47th President of the United States can be seen positively in the context of further US support for this format. Already during his first term, the President appeared at the summit in Warsaw in 2017, which was unequivocally positively received as support for the then-nascent format. We already know that the US President will receive an official invitation to this year’s summit in Warsaw, which will be delivered to him after the swearing-in ceremony[7].
However, it is difficult to predict at this point whether he will decide to visit Poland in April. Not all previous plans for meetings between Andrzej Duda and the US President have been implemented. However, taking into account the long-standing and positive relations between the two presidents, it can be assumed that such a meeting will take place before the end of the Polish president’s term. The presence of the US President at the jubilee summit of the Three Seas Initiative could symbolically close a decade of cooperation in this format, as well as give it a new impetus.
US support for the Three Seas Initiative goes beyond current political divisions and election campaigns in the US. It is expressed not only in rhetoric but also in concrete actions. A symbolic moment was the unanimous adoption by the US House of Representatives Committee on November 18, 2020, of a resolution[8] in which 3SI was recognized as a strategic partnership of twelve Central and Eastern European countries. This document emphasizes the role of the Initiative in strengthening independence in key infrastructure areas: energy, digital and transport. Mark Brzezinski, the outgoing US ambassador to Poland, also spoke enthusiastically about 3SI[9].
However, in the context of previous, loud announcements, such as Mike Pompeo’s 2020 declaration of allocating a billion dollars to finance the Initiative, the current declaration of paying 300 million dollars to the 3SI Investment Fund, made by the US during the summit in Riga in 2022, may seem disappointing. Nevertheless, this format remains a key format for international cooperation in Central Europe for the US administration, businesses and experts, hence further strong representation at the summit can be expected.
More information about the Three Seas Initiative can be found on the website of the 3SI Research Center at the Institute of Political Studies of the Polish Academy of Sciences: https://3si.politic.edu.pl/
[1] Three Seas Initative Research Center Team, Basic Information, https://trojmorze.isppan.waw.pl/inicjatywa-trojmorza/podstawowe-informacje/ 27.12.2024.
[2] King Dudzińska, Wileński szczyt Trójmorza pod hasłem bezpieczeństwa, https://www.pism.pl/publikacje/wilenski-szczyt-trojmorza-pod-haslem-bezpieczenstwa dostęp 27.12.2024
[3] Three Seas Initative Research Center Team, Basic Information Szczyt Inicjatywy Trójmorza w Wilnie, https://trojmorze.isppan.waw.pl/szczyty-trojmorza/szczyt-trojmorza-w-wilnie/, dostęp 12.01.2025.
[4] Łukasz Lewkowicz, Marlena Gołębiowska, Inicjatywa Trójmorza po szczycie w Wilnie: po pierwsze bezpieczeństwo, https://ies.lublin.pl/komentarze/kies-1102/ dostęp 27.12.2024.
[5] Three Seas Initative Research Center Team, Basic Information, Szczyt Inicjatywy Trójmorza w Wilnie, https://trojmorze.isppan.waw.pl/szczyty-trojmorza/szczyt-trojmorza-w-wilnie/ dostęp 27.12.2024.
[6] Three Seas Initative Research Center Team, Basic Information, Informacja Ministra Spraw Zagranicznych na temat aktualnego stanu współpracy w ramach Inicjatywy Trójmorza, https://trojmorze.isppan.waw.pl/aktualnosci/informacja-ministra-spraw-zagranicznych-na-temat-aktualnego-stanu-wspolpracy-w-ramach-inicjatywy-trojmorza/ dostęp 13.01.2025.
[7] Szef BPM: Prezydent USA Donald Trump zostanie zaproszony na szczyt Inicjatywy Trójmorza, https://www.prezydent.pl/kancelaria/aktywnosc-ministrow/szef-bpm-prezydent-usa-donald-trump-zostanie-zaproszony-na-szczyt-inicjatywy-trojmorza,95729, dostęp 27.12.2024.
[8] Resolution supporting Three Seas Initiative unanimously passes U.S. House of Representatives, https://3seas.eu/media/news/resolution-supporting-three-seas-initiative-unanimously-passes-u-s-house-of-representatives, dostęp 13.01.2025.
[9] Polish Radio, Samorządowy Kongres Trójmorza. Ambasador USA w Polsce: stoimy ramię w ramię https://polskieradio24.pl/artykul/2974302,samorzadowy-kongres-trojmorza-ambasador-usa-w-polsce-stoimy-ramie-w, dostęp 12.01.25.
Comments are closed.