The recognition of separatist republics in Eastern Ukraine by the Russian Federation does not constitute an event separated from strategic Russian interests. Already in 2005, Vladimir Putin has stated that the collapse of the USSR was the biggest geopolitical catastrophe of the XX century. Since the beginning of his rule, the Russian Federation has endeavored to regain control over the sphere of influence lost due to the implosion of the Soviet Union.
The recognition of “Donetsk People’s Republic” and “Luhansk People’s Republic” can be described as one of the events fitting the concept of the “Third Rome”; nowadays, on the post-soviet area, all roads of independence leads – according to this concept – to the Moscow.
The international community become convinced about the strategy of broadening the sphere of influence and implementation of power politics in 2008 in Georgia. Russian Federation not only gained control over the significant part of the coast of the Black Sea or blocked the implementation of any of European geopolitical interests in the region, but primarily it obtained the capability of future military interventions by the call of “independent” and “sovereign”, small and widely unrecognized countries. Russia used a similar mechanism of destabilization and tearing off another territory in the post-soviet area in the case of the Crimean Peninsula. By using unidentified Russian forces, overcoming authorities of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, the nomination of the puppet “Prime Minister” and holding a referendum, Vladimir Putin conquered the next element of the geopolitical puzzle within the post-soviet area.
In the most likely scenario, Russia will not cause an outbreak of a large-scale war but will continue to destabilize Ukraine in the purpose of tearing off subsequent, strategically important parts of the Ukrainian territory
In the context of further development of the crisis in Russian-Ukrainian relations and with regard to regularities of implementation of power politics by Russia, it is reasonable to presume that soon the “Donetsk People’s Republic” and “Luhansk People’s Republic” will seek to join Russia. Both recognition of those entities and the ability to incorporate them into the Russian Federation set Ukraine down with a difficult strategical choice to make. The strive of Ukrainian forces to defend the eastern borderland will surely meet an armed resistance of the Russian army, which has entered the area. Simultaneously, in case of the lack of effective replacement of Russian influence from these territories, most likely those lands will be incorporated into the Russian Federation and it will emphasize both the weakness and dysfunctionality of Ukraine within terms of defending its own territory.
In the most likely scenario, Russia will not cause an outbreak of a large-scale war but will continue to destabilize Ukraine for the purpose of tearing off subsequent, strategically important parts of the Ukrainian territory. In the positive scenario, further endeavor to swallow up its territory by Russia will effect in strong efforts of the European Union and NATO in favor of stabilization of the situation, which may lead to the abandonment of further military intervention. In the scenario that is negative for Kyiv, a hesitant attitude of both European and Atlantic structures will be decoded as weakness and incapability of the West to defend its interests within Ukraine, and it will induce the Russian Federation to subsequent destabilization of this country by the use of armed forces. In the surprising scenario, the failure of the negotiations between the West and the Russian Federation will be used by Ukraine to establish an alliance with the People’s Republic of China, which has not only power capable to force Russia to end the destabilization of Ukraine but also aiming to stabilization of land corridor of exportation within the development of New Silk Road.
In response to recognition of the independence of DRP and LRP, the President of the USA Joe Biden imposed sanctions in form of the ban on conducting investments by citizens of the United States on those territories. Meanwhile, the President of France Emmanuel Macron leaned on the European Union to impose collective sanctions on the Russian Federation, but from the Chancellor of Germany, there has been no stance on this issue so far. What is worth pointing out, the current activity of the EU and NATO was not sufficient enough to bring over newly established countries in the post-soviet area to the road that does not lead to Kremlin.
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