Polish-Czech Forum 2023: Czech Foreign Policy. Interview with Šárka Shoup [Part 2]

This text is a transcription of the interview conducted by Michał Banasiak

Šárka Shoup – the director of the Institute for Politics and Society. Šárka covers transatlantic, economic and migration issues. Her doctoral research was on the issue of migration, the results of which were published on the Web of Science. Prior to joining the Institute for Politics and Society, Šárka worked as a project manager on analyzing the potential trade relations between Latin America and Visegrád Group. She has also participated in analyzing the challenges of migration and socio-economic and political responses to regional polarization in Central and Eastern Europe, along with other projects. Šárka participated in internships in Cyprus, Corfu, Malta, and Brussels. Additionally, she has studied at the University of Juaréz del Estado de Durango (Mexico) and IDRAC (France). She holds a doctoral degree (Ph.D.), engineer degree (Ing.) and two master’s degrees (MBA, Mgr.) from the University of Economics in Prague and Charles University. She also holds a master degree (MA) from the Université Jean Moulin Lyon 3. In 2020 Šárka was elected as a member of the Board of Directors of the European Liberal Forum, a think tank of the ALDE Party. She was reelected as a member of the Board of Directors in 2022.

Michał Banasiak: Hello, my name is Michał Banasiak and this is the Institute of New Europe series of talks within the Polish Czech Forum project. Today I have a pleasure to host Sarka Shoup from the Czech Think Tank Institute for Politics and Society. Hello.

Šárka Shoup: Hello, good morning, everyone.

Michał Banasiak – Before we move to big politics, because we often discuss big politics, big political projects, I would like to start with the social level of cooperation. So, please point out the three positives and three negatives that Czech people feel towards Poland, towards Polish people, maybe.

Šárka Shoup:  Okay, I think that, I will have more positives than negatives, definitely some kind of bilateral cooperation between Czechia and Poland, which takes place on multiple levels and issues. So, I think the cooperation is quite extensive, and it’s also thanks to the physical proximity and closeness of policymakers and administrations. And after all, we have a kind of similar history. So I think we also have a similar way of view on a lot of aspects. For example, economic security and defense. Also, currently the Czechs love going to do some shopping in Poland so that’s for the positives, but for negatives, I can’t really think of anything.

Michał Banasiak:We talk after the half year of Petr Pavel as the President of Czechia, how would you evaluate his first six months as the president? And I mean international relations, the foreign policy, especially.

Šárka Shoup:  I think Petr Pavel his, advantage that he is quite skilled with the languages. He knows how to talk to people on a higher level, thanks to his previous experience as a general in NATO. And he started to be quite active even before he started to be a president. And since day one, he took a lot of effort to pay attention to international relations. Of course, his first trip was to Slovakia, but that’s typically how it should be. And then he’s really carefully viewing how he should handle all these, international relations, especially, regarding the current war, which is ongoing. And he, as a general, has quite a good overview of how to move this country forward.

Michał Banasiak: Comparing him to the former president, Miloš Zeman, he is a more pro European president. Of course, also, we have the context of the war, ongoing war now. But can you see any shifts in the foreign policy of Czechia in the last six months?

Šárka Shoup: Absolutely, absolutely. As you just mentioned, the previous president, he was more targeted, on let’s say, to the east, and the current president is more targeted to the west, he’s more pro-European. He’s so much more like paying attention to the international relations within the EU and transatlantic relations. And definitely the shift is towards the communication with China and Russia.

Michał Banasiak: And what about regional cooperation? How, in your opinion, is his stance and his political environment stance on the V4 cooperation and also on the 3 Seas Initiative cooperation?

Šárka Shoup: As you mentioned, he’s in charge for a short term. So currently, it’s really hard to compare a man who was there for many years and the current president who is there for a few months. But he’s positive about cooperation in V4. Also we have the presidency in V4. We never had the Czech president before, so it’s one of his priorities to pay attention to that. And there are a lot of plans and things,  which are ongoing and I think it’s going in a good direction.

Michał Banasiak: And cooperation with the current prime minister, how does it work?

Šárka Shoup:  It’s positive. It’s definitely positive. I think they had to find their way of communication, but it wasn’t that difficult because they never had a grudge against each other. They didn’t have any problems from previous years. For example, if it would be some politician who had some previous discussions in their past experience, but they didn’t. So they could start, they had a fresh start and it’s ongoing. So there is so much in the discussion about the issues which we need to deal with.

Michał Banasiak: In recent years, we have seen at least a few Czech politicians involved in building good relations with Taiwan. And in your opinion, how does it look now? I mean, the relations with China and with Taiwan, how would you evaluate it and in your opinion how will it be built in the coming years?

Šárka Shoup: Well, you mentioned, there was a man who was quite pro-Chinese, so he always says that he believes in one China, that Taiwan is part of China. Current government has, or there are people who have a different opinion as you mentioned, there are a lot of political representatives, which recently went to Taiwan.  It was Pekarova, and others and they are more likely to support Taiwan as an independent country. And, we believe that this will go the same direction. This is their aim.

Michał Banasiak: We’ve seen, I would say, the growing impact of China. At least China is trying to be bigger in Eastern Europe, in Central Europe, and in Czechia. And do you also observe the growing influence of Chinese politics in the economy, because we know that there is economic war not only between China and the US. But also between China and Taiwan.

Šárka Shoup: There is, China will always be a strong partner for our country. So we just can’t really afford to cut them off completely and not get any cooperation. Czech Republic is  I don’t want to say small country, but like, let’s say middle sized country. And we will always have the influence here from China. There is a historical path, but it’s nothing new for us. There was, I would say five years ago when it was really a strong influence, there were the ideas to buy more big companies. So in the Czech Republic, the COVID-19 changed a little bit. The situation, of course, changed. Also the perspective for many people I don’t perceive any dramatic changes in the upcoming few months.

Michał Banasiak: Let’s talk about the context of the ongoing war in Ukraine for a while. How would you evaluate the condition of the Czech economy under this war condition in the neighboring area?

Šárka Shoup: Regarding the energy of Czechia, definitely strengthen cooperation in the field of communication connected to Europe on cross border transport corridors so we are, I think we are fighting pretty good, the unemployment is still quite low. And, the price has increased. The inflation is pretty high compared to other countries in the EU, pretty high. But there is nothing such a dramatic change except the people who are having problems now with paying the bills. But, the current government is trying to do their best. So, the people are not aware of the facts which are influencing them. And I would quite praise the Czech Republic for doing as good as they can.

Michał Banasiak: Taking into account the economic crisis, energy crisis Europe experienced in the last month, is the support for Ukraine on the same level it was more than one year ago, or is it decreasing?

Šárka Shoup: That’s a good question. Well, the Czech Republic is one of the countries where thousands of Ukrainians came. And, because of our proximity to history, we feel them and the Czech Republic is not a normal coming country for the refugees or for the migrants, but this was a completely different story, because we felt with them. And so it was also, if you compare it to the crisis in 2015, there was a migration from Syria and there were only young men coming and now the Ukrainians they are women and children. So you can see completely different patterns and Czechs are reflected. Before, the Czechs were quite against the migrants, but with the Ukrainians it’s completely different. And we are really trying to help them, like incorporating them into our society. There was a big boom at the beginning, giving the free housing and getting enrolled into the kindergarten. Sometimes they had a bigger chance to get there than some Czech mothers and they complained that because of them they couldn’t get in. But the solidarity level was absolutely incredible and beautiful. But you’re right, because it’s quite a while since the beginning, like it’s been over a year, the perspective is changing. Also, it was when we didn’t have a crisis here. At the beginning, everyone was doing fine, but then thanks to the war, our conditions changed a little bit and it’s then harder to help when you are not feeling so great about yourself either. So yes, the perspective changed, got a little bit lower, our level of tolerance got lower.

Michał Banasiak: There is also a question, where to put the borders of help, because we know that unlimited help is not possible now. Is there both political and social level support for Ukraine still as “We have to support Ukraine with unlimited help”. Or people think support for Ukraine in Yes, but we should also think about ourselves.

Šárka Shoup: This is the last sentence which you said. It’s exactly what we feel here because we were helping quite a lot or let’s say Czech people are really helping quite a lot. But of course, it’s not unlimited. For example, when you have a house, you can just lend or like, give them one house to rent, But you don’t have more to give or sometimes you just need to also rearrange your own life. You don’t stop living, you know, you still continue, your life is going on and also the life of the other people around you. So I wouldn’t definitely say it’s unlimited, I think the Czech Republic and also Poland did quite a lot. I am proud of our countries but I don’t think that it can get much higher. Also, if you would look from a military standpoint, as a Czech country or Czech Republic, we are small, and we don’t have a strong army. So that would be great if we could help in this field but of course, then there’s a question of NATO. That’s the only way where I can see that we used to do something more because I think we used our own limit.

Michał Banasiak: And in Czech society, if we have a possibility to check it, in your opinion, now there is support for Ukraine until the end of the Ukrainian victory, or Czech people rather think that, okay, we should prepare some plans to end the war. Maybe we should start to negotiate with Russians. How on this matter do Czechs stand?

Šárka Shoup:: Then we have to differentiate if we talk about the politicians or like the Czech society, because also in the Czech society, there are groups who are supporting Russia. Yeah, they are reading as we call it nowadays, disinformations, fake news, and they believe there is a completely different story than what is actually going on. So yes, there is a part which is saying we don’t have to help anymore, it’s not true and there is a part which is aware of the fact that if they don’t stop Russia, or if we don’t stop Russia now, they will continue, and they will continue to other countries. because why not? If we can invade one country, why not the other country? And I would say the majority is so scared of this. So they would prefer to help or continue helping, until it’s done. Also, people, for example, my parents or my grandparents who were living in a communist regime still know how it is to be oppressed by other country or how it is to be dictated. And we also learn from history. So this helps this generation, which is quite a clear opinion.

Michał Banasiak: You have mentioned the Russian disinformation, spreading, for instance probably in the social media. Is it a big issue in the Czech Republic?

Šárka Shoup: It is a very big issue. Yeah, I would say it was a big issue at the beginning. It was so well done, like the information that looked so real there was information which you would believe, it was just incredible how well prepared everything was. But  there was a plan not even a year ago, when the government was thinking that they should close some disinformation websites. At the end, there was a big discussion about it because it’s freedom of speech, right? Should we be doing this or we shouldn’t. I have a feeling that now there is less information because a lot of people started to work on it and to show the truth, show the reality. So it’s not as strong as it was at the beginning but there are a lot of retired people who are just watching or finding stuff on the internet or receiving emails and so on, there are chains of these things and they believe in it. Yeah. So yes, it is a big thing. We are working on this as an Institute as well. The government is working on it, but I think maybe I am naive, but I think it got better.

Michał Banasiak: A Ukrainian membership in NATO and the European Union. Is it a discussion at the political level in the Czech Republic?

Šárka Shoup: Yes, it is a discussion. Actually, next week, our Institute is preparing and is presenting a paper about this and the suggestions to the government. It is a constant discussion, because it can influence all our lives regarding security and defense. Yes.

Michał Banasiak: And in your opinion, and also in the opinions of Czech politicians, how does the situation look now? Are Czech politicians and also the Czech society supporting membership of Ukraine in NATO and in the European Union? Of course, we know, we both know that it’s not possible to make it now under the war conditions, but when the war ends. Is there support for that, or are there some divisions that some politicians,, say yes, some say no, because we would have, the big rival on the market of grain, and overall market. How does it look in Czechia?

Šárka Shoup: So regarding the labor market, we have no problem with that because there are a lot of Ukrainians who are working here. They are doing a great job, they are normally and officially employed. Even when there is fear now, these days, people will steal our jobs, this is absolutely not the case for Ukrainians. So, for Czech society, this wouldn’t be a problem. Of course, if you think from the point of view that if they join the European Union, of course they will not be the big country who gives money into the European Union, but we should perceive them as receivers. So the distribution of the money, of course, will change a little bit. And that’s a worry. But I think politicians are thinking this way, not the Czech society. Yeah, so Czech society doesn’t have such a big concern, because it’s a little bit bigger picture.

Michał Banasiak: And NATO? Because NATO is probably more obvious.

Šárka Shoup: I think the Czech people, regarding NATO, have no issues whatsoever. But of course, if you think about it, it would be safer for Ukraine. Obviously, it would be less safe for maybe the countries in NATO currently. We have some Czech people who are, right now, I was reading in the news, some guy who was running to Russia to help the Russian side. If Czechs, or a country would be officially involved, then, NATO is getting involved, then we are opening the Third World War. So this is the bigger picture.

Michał Banasiak: Can you see any shift in the way of thinking about international relations, especially in Europe in the European Union after the war in the last one and a half years? Do you see that politicians, both politicians and the people, think differently about? How the European Union works, how NATO works and how should we cooperate in Europe?

Šárka Shoup:  The Czech people are a little bit happy that the European Union is a little bit slower than everything as well as NATO, that it’s not so easy to change. Of course, they want to help, as you mentioned Ukraine, but they are aware of the military aspects or defense or security aspects. So people think about it much more now and are more careful. And they are less critical towards Brussels because they see that it’s not just yes, no, yes, no, very easy decisions about everything, but it just has bigger consequences.

Michał Banasiak: Another question I have for you is what in your opinion, maybe also of your Institute, what is the time perspective for Ukraine joining? Let’s start with NATO.

Šárka Shoup: Well, as you mentioned, it would be a bigger question after the war, because currently, right now everyone is unsure, unsecure and it would be too risky. So, and when the war will end, I have no idea. Of course, we thought it would be done within a few months. It has been quite long, too long. But I don’t think we will solve this before the end.

Michał Banasiak: So I will not ask you about the European Union because probably it’s a more difficult issue but what about the programs, maybe some governmental programs, or private companies, ideas on how to rebuild Ukraine after the war? Is there a discussion about that in Czechia? In Poland, we have many, not only ideas, but we have also many projects, gaining on that matter. How does it look in your country?

Šárka Shoup: Well, dozens of Czech armed companies already cooperate with Ukraine. But currently there is a need for companies operating in the civil sector, and the need for it will increase with the end of the war. There is a plan, of course, to help with the reconstruction,  because this is one of the Czech priorities, the successful post war reconstructions for all of us. It’s not only about Ukrainians victory, hopefully, but also about the reconstruction, and the Czech Republic is absolutely ready 100 percent to be involved in this. So, yes. So we have a lot of priorities not just regarding the security and defense but also for things like the culture or education or research area.  We’ll definitely try to work on a higher level, and have a bigger network . For the partnership and the companies are already now interested and love to help. And it’s amazing that even the private companies who are not looking for, I don’t want to say their benefits, it’s not only for them, but it’s also for benefiting the general situation. Because it’s war there. It’s war.

Michał Banasiak: Are there any political parties on the Czech political scene, I mean parties which are somehow visible on that scene, which now still have ideas to cooperate with Russia, to negotiate with Russia, which try to convince people that after the war we still will have to live with Russia on the same continent. And we somehow will have to make, for instance, some economic cooperation on working again.

Šárka Shoup: Do you mean the parties who are pro Russian?

Michał Banasiak: Yes, pro-Russian, or maybe not only pro-Russian, because pro-Russian is quite a hard stance, but at least not so much pro-European, pro-Western.

Šárka Shoup: Unfortunately we still have these parties as well. I could mention, of course, SPD which is the extremist party led by Tomio Okamura. They are special. I always have to laugh about them because also they’re saying many things and it’s incredible how many people are still believing them and voting for them. But they are the leaders in the disinformation team. Absolutely. And this is what we should be aware of but yes we have these political parties.

Michał Banasiak: We have these kinds of parties elsewhere in Europe and we wonder whether it is a possibility for them to change their agenda or they just chose to support and it is not possible to shift their stances.

Šárka Shoup: Exactly. They are going to build this or they are building their support on this program because the voters are the people who are supporting this point of view, and I’m saying they are the only party. So they get all these voters. That’s why maybe they have 10, 12 percent support. I don’t think there is a need to change their opinion on the European level, because they are not having such a big reach. It’s more in the Czech Republic. Yes, so I think thanks to them there were a lot of people who started to be more interested in disinformation and revealing the truth. Even during their free time. You really can’t believe that there were also experts in this disinformation during the COVID who believed what they were saying, it was just insane. And even really smart people such as doctors, believed them because they are really persuasive but luckily there are still a lot of people who are able to tell the truth and discover that this is all just fake news. But it’s interesting. They are so powerful, I mean again that the people are still giving them support. So it might be a threat, if they get bigger. They are not small, they are not that huge. They don’t have 25% support. So I think it’s still within the range,  and they found their way to succeed in this direction. And it’s working.

Michał Banasiak: Thank you very much. Sarka Shoup was the guest of the Institute of New Europe.

Šárka Shoup: Thank you very much. Have a nice day. Bye bye.

Foto: Zdjęcie dodane przez Palu Malerba: https://www.pexels.com/pl-pl/zdjecie/ludzie-pochmurny-budynek-flagi-14455725/

The project “Intensifying Polish-Czech cooperation on the foreign policy priorities of both countries in 2023” aims to create a substantive basis for intensifying Polish-Czech cooperation in the field of foreign policy priorities of both countries. Public task financed by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Poland within the grant competition “Polish-Czech Forum 2023”. The cost of the project and the amount of grant is PLN 55 000,00.